Red White Black and Blue

Downside of NBA League Pass

2012-01-27T11:38:00.004-05:00

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/6534/ivan-johnson

You have to listen to the home announcers for every game. I just finished watching the Hawks-Spurs game last night and the Spurs announcers were more like cheerleaders. I could feel my blood pressure rising.

Plus Sean Elliott clearly had not researched the Hawks this year. In critiquing Ivan Johnson's pick-and-roll defense, Elliott was making several valid points about how he shows for too long leaving the defense vulnerable to a quick pass to the big men. In making those points, however, Elliott attempted to contrast the age and experience of Tiago Splitter with the youth and inexperience of Ivan Johnson. This seemed odd since the two players are the same age (27). It became even worse when he kept saying that Ivan was fresh out of college while Splitter had international experience despite the fact that Ivan last played in college in 2007 and not only played in the D-League, but placed 3rd in the MVP voting last year.

Sean, it ruins your perfectly good critique when you don't have the right facts. It's like going to a great concert and having the fire alarm go off.

Hawks Schedule: Will they drop off?

2012-01-26T13:29:00.002-05:00

http://idcf.tumblr.com/

One of my favorite articles on Peachtree Hoops is the weekly round-up of power rankings. Some commenters like to search for any slight against the Hawks to rage against the national media, but I like to get a quick glimpse of what other sports writers think of the Hawks. The consensus this past week was that most people were surprised the Hawks did not immediately fall apart without Horford, but that they will fall back in their record as the season goes on.

Normally, this would be a perfectly valid analysis that has been true for Atlanta for the last 4-5 years. This year, however, there are a couple of factors that clearly play out in Atlanta's favor in the regular season. The first is that the Hawks actually have a decent amount of depth that will serve them well in the condensed season. Teams cannot afford to play their starters almost 40 minutes a night and expect them to not break down. With the veteran additions to the bench, Drew has done a commendable job of keeping everyone fresh. He still leans on Joe a little too much for my liking, but his 36.2 minutes per game is below his average from 2003-2010 when he was regularly flirting with 40 minutes per game.

The second reason the Hawks' record will not fall back too much is the fact that they have fewer games against the West this year. The West is a bruising collection of good team after good team after good team. There are two divisions right now with only one team with a losing record. The Timberwolves are the worst team in the Northwest Division and they are 8-10. The East, on the other hand, is top heavy. There are six teams with at least 12 wins, and everyone else has 7 or less wins right now. By my count, the Hawks have 25 games remaining against teams that are .500 and under. While I don't think the Hawks will maintain their 10-0 record against these teams (especially since Boston and the Knicks are included), I also don't think it is unreasonable to expect a 17-8 record in those 25 games. The remaining 22 games are against teams above .500. Right now, the Hawks are 3-6 against those teams. Even if they maintain that pace, they will go 7-15.

This would leave the Hawks at the end of the season with a record of 37-29. Thus, if nothing goes horribly wrong or horribly right, the Hawks will compete for home court advantage in the first round. I wouldn't call that dropping off at all.

Atlanta's Fast Break

2012-01-24T08:05:00.003-05:00

Photo: Jeffrey Phelps / AP

For years everyone has commented on the fact that Atlanta has the wing and post players to run a very effective fast break. Josh and Al (even with a torn pec muscle) can outrun 99% of the 4s and 5s in the league. Marvin can get out and run, and Joe should know how to run the break from his days in Phoenix.

However, the Hawks never had anyone to start the break. Bibby was too old and slow and Joe does everything in smoothly (aka in slow motion). This combined with the fact that both Woody and Drew preach grinding out every possession resulted in the following pace rankings from the 2006-2007 on: 21st, 19th, 24th, 27th, and 27th. Now that Teague has finally been given the reigns as the starting PG, you can start to see the Hawks starting to want to run a little bit more. The problem is this: they have no clue how to run an effective fast break.

Last night Marvin was dribbling down the court after a steal with two defenders in front of him. Josh was actually sprinting down the court on the right wing (instead of his usual trot), because the defender on the right wing was Brandon Jennings. I'm sure every Hawks fan was thinking this would be an easy lob. Instead, Marvin puts his head down and tries to bull his way to the basket. He luckily got the foul call, but instead of an easy lob and dunk he has to get his points from the free throw line. This is but one of many examples of how the Hawks are missing out on easy points night after night. I'm not saying the Hawks should become the Nuggets of the East, but there is no reason they should be squandering so many chances for easy points.

Even worse, every time a play like Marvin's happens, it discourages Josh from running the court and encourages him to try and run the break. Ideally, Josh should be looking to get the ball to Teague as quickly as possible and then sprinting down a wing looking for a lob. Additionally, Teague needs to stop waiting for everyone and just take off. So many times he could simply run past the plodding big men of the other team and get an easy layup. There were several times last night when Teague slowly dribbled the ball up the court, allowing Bogut time to get entrenched in the lane, before trying to drive the lane.

As much as I think Brandon Jennings shoots too much, Teague could take a lesson from Jennings' second half performance. He was in attack mode after every missed Hawks shot. At that point he could either dish for the assist, hit the layup because our big men were being slow, or circle around and dribble the ball back out. The more Teague attacks, the more the rest of the team is going to run with him. This is especially true if he sets up some lobs for Josh.

Everyone loves lobs...

How my Fanhood has been Saved

2012-01-15T15:30:00.004-05:00

Between NBA League Pass and DVR, I have been able to rededicate myself to the Hawks this season. I have not had time to consistently sit down and watch an entire games for many a year. Part of this comes from having a wife who does not watch sports, and the other part comes from moving to Jacksonville. Plus, as I get older I simply do not have 2 1/2 hours I can use for a basketball on a consistent basis. Thus, I was forced to look at box scores and highlights on nba.com.

Now, however, the magic of the DVR can compress the average NBA game into a viewing experience of a little over an hour. Less if you fast-forward through free throws. Further, I finally sprung for NBA League Pass instead of only watching the nationally televised games and the games against the Magic and the Heat. This means that I now have lots of opinions about the Hawks and no one in Jacksonville to talk to them about, and, thus, the rebirth of my outlet for said opinions.

I know you're as excited as I am. And by you, I mean the people reading this. And by the people reading this, I mean me.

The Black Eye on Joe Johnson's Resume

2010-03-08T19:56:00.002-05:00

So Joe Johnson is a great player. He's probably the third best shooting guard in the NBA behind only Kobe Bryant and Dwyane Wade. However, even the best players in the league have off shooting nights. The difference between Joe and many of the other stars in the league is that he doesn't get the to the free throw line.

Here are the average free throw attempts for the top 10 scorers: 10.1, 9.9, 9.8, 7.3, 9.0, 6.3, 7.3, 8.6, 7.2, and 3.5. Can you guess which one is Joe? The only other player below 7 free throws per game is the unconscionable gunner, Monta Ellis. In fact, you have to go down to the 29th highest scorer in the league, O.J. Mayo, before you find someone who averages fewer free throws per game.

If Joe averaged 7.5 free throws per game, which would put him right in the middle of the pack, that would add an average of 3.3 points per game since he's an 83.1% free throw shooter. What his low rate of free throws means, however, is that he cannot recover from a bad shooting night. If Joe is cold, his only option is to keep shooting and hope he starts making the shots. By contrast, the other players in the top 10 can put their head down and get to the free throw line.

Why would Ilgauskas sign with the Atlanta Hawks?

2010-02-23T14:26:00.005-05:00

We all know that the Wizards are going to buy out Zydrunas Ilgauskas. We all know the Cavaliers want to resign him once he gets bought out. Reports are that the Hawks are going to pursue Ilgauskas. I don't think there is any doubt that his addition would make the Hawks a better and deeper team. The question remains, however, as to why Ilgauskas would want to join the Hawks.

There are the surface reasons of why he would not sign: he's been with the Cavs his whole career, LeBron gives him a better chance to win a championship than the Hawks, he knows everyone on the Cavs, etc. I think there might be a deeper, and more troubling, reason why Ilgauskas would not sign with the Hawks: the example of Joe Smith.

Joe Smith drew the interest of several contenders this off-season to provide front court depth. One of the main reasons he signed with the Hawks, however, was the opportunity for more minutes. It certainly wasn't for the money since he is making the veteran's minimum. The Hawks only had three serviceable big men in the rotation and desperately needed the help. So how have the Hawks rewarded this choice? By playing him at least 10 minutes less per game than any other time in his career, excepting an 11-game stint with the Nuggets. I'm sure he's not exactly thrilled considering he averaged 19.6 minutes last year on a Cavs team that was better than this Hawks team.

Out of the 6 teams with a better record than the Hawks, here is an example of players who are playing more than Joe Smith: Brian Scalabrine, Shelden Williams, Kyle Korver, Ronnie Price, Joey Graham, Anthony Carter, Anthony Johnson, Josh Powell, and Jawad Williams... to name a few.

This is troubling because given the example this sets, why would any other older veteran want to sign with the Hawks after being waived or even in the offseason unless we offer them more money?

Cursed Red?

2010-02-22T19:33:00.003-05:00

In honor of last night's loss to the Golden State Warriors, here is the stat of the day:

Record in blue road uniforms: 10-9
Record in red road uniforms: 3-5

Also interesting to note, the Hawks went back to the playoffs when they switched from the predominantly red road uniforms to the predominantly blue.

I'm not saying there's any causation here... I'm just saying.

UPDATE: After the Jazz game, the blue road unis are now 11-9.

Teague's Potential

2010-02-19T09:44:00.005-05:00

I know it is very early in his career, and there is only a small sample size since he has only played a total of 447 minutes, but I was struck by Teague's steal totals so far. This was brought into focus on Tuesday, when Teague had 4 steals in 11 minutes against a Clippers team that had given up. Teague is averaging 2.43 steals per 40 minutes, which is rather impressive.

This look at his steals per 40 got me looking at the rest of his averages per 40. Along with his 2.43 steals, he is averaging 12.1 points, 7.2 assists, and 3.8 rebounds. These per 40 averages, along with Teague's size and athleticism reminded me of another point guard: Rajon Rondo. Rondo is averaging 15.2 points, 10.4 assists, and 4.8 rebounds to go with 2.7 steals per 40 minutes.

This probably makes Teague look like a poor man's Rondo, but let's compare Rondo's rookie stats to Teague's for this year.
Teague: 12.1, 7.2, 3.8, and 2.43 with 34.7% shooting
Rondo: 10.9, 6.5, 6.4, and 2.7 with 41.8% shooting
Now the statistics look a little more similar. Rondo is a better rebounder. They both had horrible shooting percentages, but I have more faith in Teague's shooting ability. For one thing he has an 87.1% free throw percentage compared to Rondo's career 62.6%. Further, Teague hit 80% of his free throws in college and 42% of his 3s in college. Rondo, comparatively, hit 57% and 28% respectively. So hopefully Teague will continue to develop and become a serviceable point guard for the Atlanta Hawks.

Personally I would like to see Woody do two things. First, encourage Teague to take open jump shots when he is on the floor. Teague was an aggressive scorer in college, but he looks way to deferential and, frankly, worried to shoot in his limited time on the court. A shooter has to fluidly catch and shoot in order to be effective. If concern enters their head during this process, it can throw off the timing of the shot. I believe this is what is keeping Teague's percentage down.

Second, I'd like to have Woody sit down with Teague before every game and give him a list of the guards that he is obviously than. If anyone on that list is guarding him, he has the green light to drive past him. This will help to get Teague into the flow of the offense, and also give the 2nd unit an offensive option outside of "Give the ball to Crawford".

But this is all coming from the guy who was calling for more minutes for Acie Law. So take it all with a grain of salt...

Breaking News

2009-12-02T15:58:00.002-05:00

I haven't posted in some time for various reasons. Many of them being frustration with my favorite football team(s).

But breaking news is that Coach Mark Richt finally "saw the light" and let go Willie Martinez, Jon Jancek, and D. Ends coach Fabris. Best of luck to those gentleman in finding work (seriously).

Overall great news for UGA. Let's hope we get someone of quality to replace Willie and think about using one of those vacant spots to hire a special teams coach. Tubberville comes to mind for D Coordinator.

Go Dawgs!

A few games out...a familiar story

2009-08-24T15:14:00.002-04:00

The Braves are *only* 4 games out of the wild card trailing only the San Francisco pitching staff and the Colorado Luckies. The question is: can the Braves overtake both teams? and if so, how?

As to the first, the answer is most certainly yes.
As for the second, there lies our discussion.

A few things have to go right for the Braves to surge into the wild card. Namely:
The Rockies and Giants have to split their remaining 6 games. With only 38 games remaining, the best chance the Braves have is to have the Rockies and Giants effectively ensure that neither team surges ahead allowing the Braves to make a come back. Either team winning a majority of those games would mean a tougher climb for the Braves.

Relatedly, the Braves have to keep doing what was successful in the 90's: Winning Series. While an 8 game winning streak would certainly be great; a much more reasonable approach is to just keep winning 2 out of 3 and hope to sweep a series or two along the way. If the Rockies and Giants continue at their current winning % (average of 55.2%), they can be expected to win 21 more games this season. That means to tie them, the Braves would need to win 25 more games (or 66%, which is 2/3 of their games). Looking at the schedule, all three teams have similar schedules remaining with their opponents all having a winning % around 50%.

In order to win each series the Braves need a few things to happen:
(1) Lowe needs to start earning his money. He has been arguably the weakest starting pitcher for the Braves over the past month. If he can pitch reasonably well the Braves have a chance.
Do I think will happen? Actually, yes I do. Lowe has shown signs of fatigue since mid-season due to pitching in Atlanta heat. With cooler weather coming up in September along with the possibility of extra rest due to Tim Hudson's return (see item 2), Lowe could be in good shape for the stretch run.

(2) The Braves need to find a way to use Tim Hudson. Most pundits are mentioning the possibility of a 6 man rotation when Hudson returns and the rosters expand. This seems, to me, like the best way to utilize him. It would allow all our starters to pitch on extra rest including:
Kawakami: who is used to a 6 man rotation from his time in Japan.
Lowe: who, as mentioned above, looks fatigued and could use extra rest.
Hanson: who is surpassing his workload from previous years
Jurjjens: who is still young and whose arm we don't want to wear out.
The only person this might affect negatively is Vazquez who has been a stud all year. But he is a veteran and I think a little breather could help him as well.

(3) The Braves need to get healthy.
We need McClouth's bat and legs.
We need Chipper's timely hitting.
We need Prado's grit.
(I never thought I'd say this) We need Garrett's clutch hitting.

(4) Bobby needs to trust his pen. Relately, some key guys should be coming back.
Moylan, Soriano, and Gonzalez can't keep the bullpen together by themselves. Bobby is going to have to put Acosta and Medlen (who has looked dynamite lately) in more situations. Along with that Jojo, Buddy, and Parr (and perhaps even Hudson) could come back and help stimulate the bullpen.

(5) The rest of the hitters need to keep on chugging. McCann, LaRoche, Infante, Diaz have all been swinging hot sticks lately. They need to keep the team afloat til the re-inforcements arrive.

I know this seems like a big list, but my homerdom thinks it's achieveable. Go Braves!

Upcoming Braves Schedule

2009-07-27T08:18:00.004-04:00

I've always looked ahead at the upcoming pitching match-ups for the Braves. Sometimes if fills me with joy... sometimes with dread. This year has mostly been depression because I would love the pitching match-up for the Braves, but it would always come with the caveat that was the Braves' offense.

Now I look at the upcoming match-ups and smile. I feel like we have close to automatic wins against any pitcher that isn't an ace. Jurrjens vs. Ricky Nolasco? Feels like an off day. Vazquez vs. VandenHurk? Not a problem. Even when it's a tough match-up, I feel as though we have a chance. I mean if we can get runs off of Lincecum, why should I be worried about Kawakami vs. Josh Johnson or Jurrjens vs. Chad Billingsley?

Sure, the offense is not going to keep this many hot hitters at the same time, but at least I now have hope. Besides, Rob Neyer believes in the Braves' hitters. Of course he is a Royals fan... so one has to question his judgment somewhat...

Organizational Development?

2009-07-23T09:16:00.003-04:00

Namely, what is going on with the Braves' development of position players. In recent history it appears that our minor league system prepares hitters to appear good right out of the bat and then fade off.
Jeff Francoeur
Kelly Johnson
Marcus Giles
Adam LaRoche
and many more to a lesser extent (Brandon Jones, Brayan Pena, Scott Thorman)
even prospects we've traded away:
Andy Marte
Jarrod Saltalamacchia

The only hitting prospects that have 'panned out' to be conistently good players recently are McCann and Escobar. You could argue that Escobar developed more in the professional leagues in Cuba (and I would tend to believe that, as it appears in his attitude that he doesn't necessarily listen well to coaching here). So really, we're left with only McCann being a hitter that realized his potential.

With uber-prospects Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman tearing it up at AA, the time is approaching when they will be called up. It seems that the Braves have a trend of bringing up people before they are truly seasoned, at the moment they either look ready or look like they have nothing "left to prove" in the minors. My wonder is if we'd be better off allowing them a full season of AAA in order to develop not just physically but mentally. Knowing they had a full season to work on various aspects of their game might prepare them more for the rigors of the MLB and help them understand the necessity of making adjustments.

All too often the Braves use success in the minors, however brief, as a crutch to determine a players' readiness. Perhaps more prudence should be involved in helping the players mature and understand that the big leagues take constant tinkering and openness to change. Maybe forcing them to be patient and work on learning the game will lead us to more McCanns and less Francoeurs. And that is certainly a good thing!

Too Many Starters?

2009-07-23T08:45:00.004-04:00

As everyone knows, starting pitching has been the Braves biggest (and arguably only) strength this year. And if Hudson's rehab goes well, that strength could get even better. The problem is that the Braves will have 6 good starters for a 5-man rotation. So the question for this post is, how do the Braves deal with this wonderful problem?

The first option that has been bantered around is to trade one of the starters. With Lowe and Kawakami's longer contracts and the youth of Jurrjens and Hanson, the only trade option is Vazquez. Vazquez, however, has been pitching lights out for Atlanta and apparently loves Bobby and the Braves. Additionally he would have to be moved before the trade deadline, and Hudson won't be available until mid to late August. So that would mean the Braves would have to insert a questionable fifth starter for about 4 starts. Plus I don't think we could get equal value for him. I'm not too thrilled about this option.

The second option is to move someone to the bullpen. Lowe has the worst ERA of the bunch, but I think everyone would agree it would be silly to move him to the pen. Jurrjens and Vazquez have been too good. So it comes down to either Kawakami, Hanson, or Hudson. I think if Hudson is ready to go the Braves will stick him in the rotation and not the bullpen. I would have agreed with Kawakami a month ago, but he seems to be gettting a feel for pitching in the majors and I wouldn't want to mess that up by shifting him to a new role. Hanson seems like the best prospect because he can come in and throw hard out of the pen, it will limit his innings this year, and he will still get some more major league seasoning. The only worry is that moving him back and forth from the pen will mess up his head. But come playoff time we're not going to have a 5-man rotation and Hanson would probably go to the pen then anyway, so why not give him some time to adjust before any possible playoff exposure. He could be our David Price. That is assuming that we make the playoffs though...

The third option, which I like the most, is to simply go to a 6-man rotation. It would save some innings from Hanson's and Jurrjen's arms, help ease Hudson into starting, and probably help Kawakami who is used to a 6-man rotation from Japan. It would only really affect Lowe and Vazquez, who are used to the 5-man rotation. I worried about this option further taxing the bullpen, since it would give them one less arm. But by the time Hudson comes back it will be time to extend the roster to 40 players, which would give Bobby several more arms in the pen so he doesn't abuse the few we would have left.

I'm in favor of the 6-man rotation. What do you think?

Braves Infield Utility Players and Why the Hell is Norton Hitting?!

2009-07-22T09:18:00.003-04:00

What is up with our utility players? They have been tearing it up... more so than anyone else in the lineup.

If you take a look at the Braves batting statistics, the top three hitters in terms of average are Infante (get well soon!), Brooks Conrad, and Prado. Granted Conrad and Infante have done it in very limited stints and Prado is now our starting second baseman, but still! Combine them all and you have a very good starter.

And then you factor in David Ross who has 11 xbh in only 104 plate appearances and you start to wonder: WHY THE HELL IS BOBBY STILL TROTTING OUT GREG NORTON TO PINCH-HIT?! I can't say anymore or I'll break my rule about only talking about hitters with an OBP higher than .350, but I'll just link to his playercard. It's scary...

On that note, I should mention that I'll probably be posting more about the Braves since we have more members of the .350 club. Since my last post Ryan Church, Martin Prado, Brooks Conrad, Yunel Escobar, and Casey Kotchman have joined Brandon Jones, Brian McCann, Chipper Jones, David Ross, Omar Infante, and Matt Diaz. If you put Church in center (where he was last night) and Brandon Jones in left (where he was earlier this year) that's an entire starting lineup.

I think my blog is inspiring the Braves, so I will continue to post.

Quote from Chipper

2009-07-22T09:13:00.002-04:00

From the 7/20 Jeff Schultz article:

[Chipper] Jones said he’s encouraged. “The lineup is better. We don’t have [easy] outs any more,” he said.

I wonder who he is referring to...

Big Men for the Hawks

2009-06-30T07:25:00.002-04:00

Last year the Hawks only had three big men they played on a regular basis: Josh, Al, and Zaza. Our lack of frontcourt depth, however, was even more glaring when there was an injury because Solo and Morris were simply not viable options. Even when all three were healthy, at some point in the game we had to sit two of them at once and go small. While going small can be a good thing when you have a dominant rebounder (see Howard, Dwight), going small when you are already playing undersized bigs leads to a huge rebounding disparity.

The Hawks have to invest in at least one big man over the summer since Zaza and Solo are free agents. Personally, I would prefer if the Hawks signed two big men. So let's take a look at the list:

The Too Expensive List: Odom, Millsap (Restricted), David Lee (R), and Rasheed Wallace. Villanueva, who surprisingly was not tendered by the Bucks, probably belongs on this list as well since he'll be looking for a big payday. We won't get any of these guys.

The Old Guy List: McDyess, Joe Smith, Malik Rose, Mikki Moore, Nesterovic, Jamaal Magloire, Theo Ratliff, Jason Collins, Calvin Booth, and Lorenzen Wright. Out of this list I wouldn't mind having McDyess, Smith, or Nesterovic for the right price. Unfortunately Smith and McDyess will probably be holding out for a championship and know that the Hawks aren't quite there yet. But Nesterovic might be an option.

The Young and Unproven List: Johan Petro, Melvin Ely, Robert Swift, Saer Sene, DJ Mbenga, Ike Diogu (R), Channing Frye (R), Shelden Williams, Steve Novak (R), and Shavlik Randolph. I wouldn't mind taking a shot on some of these guys as the 4th big in our rotation. I would be wary of the projects, however, since I don't want another big man sitting at the end of the bench doing nothing with Morris. So I would limit it to Diogu, Frye, and Novak. All of those are restricted however. The rest of the guys I wouldn't be against signing for cheap to fill out the roster, but I don't know if I want them seeing significant court time.

The Just Right List: Zaza Pachulia, Brandon Bass, Glenn "Big Baby" Davis (R), Chris Wilcox, Stromile Swift, Hakim Warrick (R), Leon Powe (R), Marcin Gortat (R), Chris Anderson, and Chris Mihm. These guys are probably not going to command more than the mid-level exception and have proven that they can be productive. The obvious favorite of the bunch is Zaza, especially since the preference is to go after the unrestricted free agents first.

The Hawks have to sign one of the Just Rights or Nesterovic just to survive the season and make the playoffs. To thrive, in the regular season and the playoffs, I think they need to sign two effective big men. We've seen how Woody uses his big men (he doesn't), so ideally we need an energetic guy who doesn't need to ball in his hands to be effective on the offensive end and who can at least hold down the fort on the defensive end.

Hopefully the Hawks can invest 8-10 million on the two big men and try to secure two of the Just Rights. If not, then they will have to sign one and then maybe take another cheap gamble on a young, unproven big man. At the very least we can get Morris a friend who might make him smile.

What to Make of the Braves

2009-06-29T14:16:00.003-04:00

They drive me crazy. They're just good enough that I have to keep following them, especially with their starters. But they're just bad enough that I want to throw something every time I get too involved, especially on offense.

Starters: It's a crime that Jurrjens and Vazquez have losing records, and I think they should get to hit a Braves batter of their choice during their next warm-ups. I can't wait until Hanson is able to show a bit more command of his pitches. It'll be a joy to watch. Glad we didn't trade him for Peavy.

Bullpen: Soriano is dominant. Gonzalez makes it interesting, but gets the job done. I love how Bobby is using the two of them in tandem. Jeff Bennett's WHIP is 1.85, he's given up a walk-off bases loaded walk, and a walk-off HR to Nick Green. Therefore, he should never pitch again. I know we don't do it due to options, but I wish we would just cycle through relievers more. Some of the guys down at Gwinnett have to be able to do better than Bennett or Carlyle.

Offense: This is where it gets uglier than Escobar's hair. There isn't a single player with double-digit HRs in a Braves uniform (note: McLouth hit 9 of his 12 as a Pirate), while there are 84 in the majors. That's almost three per team.
Our team leader in RBIs is Escobar with 39. There's only 64 people ahead of him.
We trotted out Greg Norton for 50 at-bats. He got 4 hits.
We can't give Francoeur away.
I still don't understand how Brandon Jones would be any worse than Garrett Anderson. In fact, with the improved defense, he'd probably be better.
In fact, given how little life the Braves offense has had, I refuse to write another word about an offensive player unless they have an OBP higher than .350. Congratulations Brandon Jones, Brian McCann, Chipper Jones, David Ross, Omar Infante, and Matt Diaz. Too bad Brandon is in the minors and Infante is hurt.

So next time it's all about pitching and four offensive players. And you wonder why I post more about the Hawks...

Hawks Free Agency

2009-06-29T07:48:00.003-04:00

NBA free agent signing period starts on July 1, 2009, and the Hawks have plenty of holes to fill. Let's start with what the Hawks have:

G: Teague, Crawford, and Joe Johnson (No PG in sight)
SF: Mo Evans
PF: Josh Smith
C: Horford and Randolph Morris

They have those 7 players signed for a grand total of $42.8 million. (Great website for salaries) The salary cap last year was $58.680 million with the tax threshold at $71.150 million. Last year the Hawks salary was at about $69 million. So with the downturn in the economy let's say the Hawks are looking to spend $65 million. So that gives Sund about $22 million to sign about 6-7 players. Out of that 6-7, the Hawks need to sign at least 3 guys that Woody will actually play. Right now we have 5 players we know he will use, one we know he will not (Morris), and one we have no clue about (Teague). So we need at least 3 more guys: a guard (preferably a vet PG), a larger wing player, and a big man.

Hopefully the role of larger wing player will be filled by Marvin, who we'll say will command a salary of about 7-8 million. He'll get less than Josh, so we'll go with 5 years, 40 million to be generous. That will put the Hawks salary at $50.8 million.

The role of vet PG once again will hopefully be filled by Bibby, but there is the concern that he will command too high of a salary, especially if he demands a salary anywhere near the $15 million he made last year. So in the interest of due diligence, let's take a look at the rest of the vet PGs. Andre Miller, Anthony Carter, Tyronn Lue, Brevin Knight, and Juan Dixon. Those are the PGs that aren't too terribly old, and are decent enough to warrant playing time. I will rule out Miller since the Hawks are not an up-tempo team and Miller can't hit a 3 (28% last year). Neither can Knight (I don't think he averaged 1 attempt a game), so he gets eliminated.

So that leaves Carter, who was resurgent last year, but is 34 and not great at the 3; Lue, who is still a fan favorite; and Juan Dixon, who is a gritty guard who is ok at the 3, but is more of a slasher. Based on Woody's offensive system, I would pretty much limit this to the more expensive, more effective Bibby or the cheaper, less effective Lue. I think it's more likely to be Lue at this point.

So should we sign Bibby and leave only 5-7 million to sign at least 4 players including a quality big man, or should we sign Lue and leave 12-13 million for those 4 players? Or are my numbers, especially how much the Hawks are willing to spend, completely off?

Will take a look at the big men in free agency before Wednesday...

The Hawks do NOT have a Point Guard

2009-06-26T08:44:00.003-04:00

I don't know how to feel about it. I grew up idolizing the great point guards: Stockton, Thomas, Tim Hardaway when he was on Golden State. And now the Hawks don't have a single player you could point to and say, "I absolutely want him running my offense." I mean it was borderline last year with shoot-first Bibby who ran everything through Webber or Brad Miller in Sacto and the undeveloped Law. But now there is no doubt. Let's take a look at the candidates:

Jamal Crawford - I think the consensus is that if we rely on him to play the point, we are screwed. Crawford is a proverbial black hole with the ball. You throw it to him, and you're not going to see it back. He's basically a rich man's Flip.
Jeff Teague - Sure, he played PG in college and will continue to do so in the NBA, but it's not because of his passing skills. He's a shooting guard who is too short. This year at Wake he averaged only 3.5 assists/game, while also averaging 3.4 turnovers/game. This combines for an unimpressive 1.06 a/t ratio.

That's it. That's our PG options for now. Take this all with a grain of salt though, because Woody doesn't exactly like traditional PGs anyway. His offense more closely resembles the Mavericks from a couple of years ago. The PG is just there to dribble it up the court and pass it to Joe (most of the time) or one of the other players so they can isolate against their defender. So the Hawks actually are a better team when they are playing with basically two shooting guards. Bibby was ideal because he had enough of a passing game that he could get the ball where it needed to go without any problems, but he also had a good enough shot that teams could not play off of him thereby creating more space for the isolated player. I think that's one of the main reasons why Woody never played Law. His game was more of the drive-and-kick variety where he could finish in the lane and hit the mid-range jumper.

With Woody's offensive philosophy in mind (and trust me, I hate the idea of catering our roster to Woody), the options of Crawford and Teague at the "PG" position makes a little more sense. Woody is looking more for a PG like the ones Phil Jackson is always looking for. Just get the ball up the court, give it to your best player, and be able to hit an open 3. Too bad we don't have Phil as our coach...

So I Saw Smoltz Last Night...

2009-05-22T09:26:00.005-04:00

He pitched in Augusta for his first rehab start. He only went three innings, but it invoked mixed emotions.

On the one hand Smoltz was an Atlanta Brave for as long as I can remember. I can distinctly recall his magical second half of the 1991 season which culminated in him winning the game that clinched the pennant, winning Game 7 of the NLCS, and dueling Jack Morris in Game 7 of the World Series.

On the other hand this is the man who was insulted by the lack of loyalty by the Braves when they would only offer $2-2.5 million guaranteed to a 42-year-old pitcher who was coming off yet another major surgery on his throwing arm and would only pitch half a season... if he was lucky.

I wanted to give him a standing ovation.

I wanted to heckle him mercilessly about his greed and imply he was still paying off his divorce.

In the end I did nothing. As he walked off in the third inning and everyone rose around me to applaud, I sat there motionless and stared.

Cleveland, COME ON DOWN!!!

2009-05-04T16:07:00.004-04:00

I know, I know. Everyone is thinking the same thing: Atlanta has no chance against Cleveland. Well I'm here to tell you that you are wrong.

And I know what else you are thinking. There is no way that these two amateurs keep up the pace and preview every game. Well I'm here to tell you that you are absolutely right.

With that in mind, this blog is all about the good news and the bad news.

Good News
Atlanta has a chance against Cleveland. When you get down to it, they are very similar teams. Both run their offense the majority of the time through a wing player who is 6'8". Both have big men who are not the most skilled/utilized on offense, but can play some mean defense. Both have guards that do not create too much offense, but can knock down a shot. Mo Williams is basically a younger Bibby.

On defense, Atlanta has three wing defenders (Joe, Mo, and Marv) to throw at LeBron. If Marvin is healthy, he and Mo will get the majority of the looks. You know, however, that Cleveland will try to employ the same strategy as the Heat and use the Hawks "switch on everything" philosophy to get LeBron more favorable match-ups. The only frontcourt player that can score for the Cavs is Big Z, and all he has is the 15 foot shot, so Josh and Al should be able to help out against LeBron. On the wings, Atlanta has to close out quickly on the 3 ball since the Cavs have tons of shooters with Williams, West, Gibson, Pavlovic, and Szczerbiak. If Atlanta can keep LeBron out of the paint like they did with Wade and close out on the Cleveland shooters, the Hawks can keep the score tight.

On offense there are mismatches to be had. Varejao matches up well with Horford and Zaza, but the Cavs do not have a player, outside of LeBron, who can match up with Josh. And the Cavs won't waste LeBron on Josh. So if he is focused and attacking the rim, Josh can give the Cavs a headache. Additionally, if Marvin is healthy, LeBron will have to choose between guarding him and Joe. This will leave the other guarded by West. While West is a feisty defender, he is all of 6'3", so either Joe or Marvin will have a huge height mismatch they should be able to exploit. So we're not getting shut out...

Bad News
This is your only scheduled preview. And even worse, the Hawks are probably going to lose this series. There is no way the Hawks take two games in Cleveland as they will be lucky to steal one. Additionally it is going to very difficult to win all three at home with the way LeBron can put the Cavs on his back.

Best-case scenario: The Hawks steal Game One from a rusty Cavs team, win one of the two home games, win Game 6, and force the Cavs to beat us in Game 7. Or they could go the same route as the team that no one believed in last year and get destroyed on the road and win all the game at home. Either way, the Hawks aren't stealing two games in Cleveland, and there is no way they are winning Game 7 on the road.

Cavs in 7.

My Live Twittering Project

2009-05-04T16:01:00.002-04:00

I forgot to predict Sundays game. I would have predicted a victory and Joe's resurgence (honestly).

I did, however, twitter the whole thing. here it is unedited. I stopped tweeting (or chirping or whatever the hell drew calls it) with about 8 mins to go in the 4th when the game was over basically.

To hell with fraking. Joe fucking johnson showed up3:12 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Its all over but the crying3:09 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

There's no "d" in beasley3:06 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Up by 20. Beautiful3:00 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Hell yeah smoove2:59 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Freakinnnnnnn joe johnson2:54 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Dwade: is that sweat or tears?2:52 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

8 second violation. I love it2:51 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Mmm. Ball movement creates contact2:48 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Freakin "freakin"2:42 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

"Ball movement" makes me giggle every time I hear it2:39 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Halftime points: keep up energy. Attack the rim on both ends. Hit your 3s2:23 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Damn. Missed oop from smoove2:08 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

The announcers just called a wade airball a pass2:08 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Joe freaking johnson is showing up. Somewhere hawksdawgs is smiling1:58 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Great pass by flip1:55 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Great outlet pass after the steal. Playing with heart1:53 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Bibby for threeeeeeeeeeeee1:53 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

@officiating: sigh1:51 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

That's a holy shit 31:48 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Dirty z all over the place1:47 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Huuuuuuuuuuuuge 3 by joe1:43 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Hustle and flow1:42 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

"Dirty" z1:36 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

I can live seeing heat shoot contested jumpers1:36 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Dear abc: does dwade penis taste good?1:34 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

End of one up by 2. Wade looks exhausted already. We look energized1:32 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Mario in to club someone. And I'm happy1:30 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Just realized I didn't write a preview. Here it is. Hawks win on strength of joe josh and bibby. Mo evans hits a big 3 at the end1:29 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Airball. Airball. Airball1:28 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Yeah josh. Forcing beasley to go to his right is the best move1:27 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

The nba. Where taking down zaza isn't a foul1:26 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

We have to box out if we want to win1:25 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

James jones looks like curious george1:25 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

How many seconds can anthony stand in the lane1:17 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Horford needs to go faster1:17 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Nice dish by smoove. Consistent josh today?1:12 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Nice up and under1:11 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Hoop and the harm. Someone needs to step up with bibby1:10 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

I love how demoralizing shot clock violations are.1:09 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Stop the sloppiness plz1:08 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Getting josh going to the rim early is a good thing1:07 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Not sure how I feel about booing wade. You don't want to anger great players like that1:07 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Difference between al and zaza. Al can jump1:06 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

As will josh dribbling1:05 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Poor rotation will kill us1:05 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

JO or no jo we need to attack the paint1:03 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Big al dressed. Hoping to see "the boss"1:02 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Curious to see who the refs are1:01 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Live tweeting the hawks game1:01 PM May 3rd from TwitterBerry

Game 6 in Miami

2009-05-01T13:36:00.002-04:00

It's getting chippy in the Southeast. The Heat are mad at Josh Smith for his dunk attempt. They are mad at Mario West for his celebration for stopping Wade. They are mad at how physical the Hawks have been, especially Zaza.

But you know what this all reeks of? Desperation. It's a playoff series. The Heat are one loss away from being eliminated. Do they really need to get mad at the Hawks in order to summon the motivation to put up a fight in this series? Wade and Erik Spoelstra realize that half of their team is ready to pack it in and go on vacation, and they have to conjure up some false beef with the Hawks in order to keep the rest of the Heat motivated. And it might work for this game...

The Heat are going to try and come out tonight like a bat out of hell. This is especially true since the Hawks will be missing both Al Horford and Marvin Williams, and Solomon Jones (god help us) will be starting.

But this game comes down to two factors. First, and most importantly, is how Wade's back feels. If he is still tentative and refuses to drive the lane, like he has been the last two games, then the Heat do not stand a chance. If he can loosen up his back and is hitting the lane like he was in the first two games, then the second factor will come into play. Second, is whether the rest of the Heat show up for Game 6. The Heat won Games 2 and 3 not only because Wade was clicking, but because his teammates were hitting shots.

Due to the evidence from the second half of Game 5, I'm going to say that Wade does get loosened up for Game 6 and goes off at home. Similarly, the rest of the Heat find inspiration from the home crowd, grows a collective backbone, and actually helps out Wade. But the Hawks will scratch and claw the whole way and make this the first game decided by single digits.

Hawks 86, Heat 94.

Incoming Heat Excuses

2009-04-29T12:42:00.002-04:00

Game 5 will be played tonight @ The Highlight Factory. So far the only trend I have noticed in the series is that we win the games I watch live (1 and 4) and lose those I DVR (2 and 3). I'm hoping for a streak breaker tonight because I will not be watching the game live (free tickets to see the Braves take on the Cards will do that to you).

So far this has been a series of extremes with no team losing by closer than 10 points. At some point a close game is going to have to happen and I think that it is tonight.

While Wade is likely not as injured as he is pretending to be, I don't doubt that his back (and other assorted parts) are still dinged up. This will result in less playing time and hopefully a few spurts on defense by the Hawks where they really slow the Heat offense down. The Hawks need to (and I think will) push Wade around a little and make it too painful to come into the paint. ZaZa, I'm looking at you.

The officials are likely not going to be as "aware" as they were during game 4. There's ticky-tack and then there is just plain whistle happy. Slowing down the game with 50+ fouls called will always benefit the Heat--they are accustomed to this pace. The Hawks, however, need to keep the ball and clock moving to be most effective. I just can't imagine a scenario where there are that many fouls called again @ home. (game 6 may be another story)

Josh Smith will be the energizer bunny again. He turns it on when the crowd is into it and the crowd is going to be into it. My guess is another 22 pts 13 reb 3 ast 4 block type of night.

Joe will pull it together and have a scoring streak. I'm not the type to look up stats but I watched probably 85% of the games this year and can't remember such a dry spell for Joe over 5 straight games. He will connect from deep a couple of times early and open up some space in the lane. The Heat have been letting him have the 3 so far and really crowding the paint, that will come back to bite them with 3s early and floaters late.

Our bench scoring will actually score. Similar to Joe, our bench was the model of consistency this season. While "Hot Flip" hasn't appeared so far this series he also hasn't exactly been needed. We'll need him in a close game and I say he shows up. Hot Flip!

JO will not keep playing at this level. I don't think he slows down tonight, but mark it down for a game 6 or 7 collapse.

Overall I think our shooters will start hitting shots from the perimeter and that'll open up the lane for more floaters, drives, and kicks. The Heat are going to come with everything they have but those few extra minutes Wade has to miss because his back hurts from carrying the team will be the difference. We'll get ahead by 5-10 and hold them off.

Final Score: Hawks 86 Heat 81

Dear Woody

2009-04-27T14:35:00.003-04:00

How young can you be and still sound senile:

"We’re right where we need to be. We just have to figure out [Monday] night’s game."

This was a direct quote from Woodson after the players called a players-only meeting on Sunday. I'm glad it was a players-only meeting. Apparently, getting blown out in back to back games both at home and on the road is the proper positioning for playoff success.

I can only assume that by "right where we need to be" he meant solely in a geographic sense. As in, we are in Miami near the arena and the game is in Miami at the arena. So we are "right where we need to be."

And as far as "figur(ing) out [Monday] night's game" he must mean discerning the tipoff time.

I don't want to lose this playoff series but I fear if we win we're stuck with him forever. Can't I have the win and a new coach next year?

Game 4 Predictions

2009-04-27T13:54:00.002-04:00

I should really name this post "How you can talk yourself into not giving up on the Hawks", or "Despite the draft, it's not time for football yet."

So Saturday's game was horrific to the point that I had to turn away. I kept coming back only change channels when the score came up. After the tough loss in Game 2 and the slaughter in Game 3, it would be easy to shovel the dirt on the Hawks. But here's the optimistic points to keep telling yourself tonight.

The Heat cannot keep shooting this well. Before Game 2 I said that they could not keep shooting that poorly, and man was I ever right. Now I'm going to tell you that they cannot continue to keep shooting this well. For the season they shot 35.7% for 3-point range. In the last two games they have shot 57.7% and 52.2% respectively, despite most of the shots being contested. If they average 20 3-pointers a game, then they are hitting an extra 4 3s a game. I've heard of players turning it on for the playoffs, but teams? Not likely. Wade will get his, we just have to keep the defensive rotations crisp on all the role players and the percentages will come down... I just hope it is tonight.

The Heat will not get 12 blocks again. Good Lord did they come out like gangbusters on defense. Wade will ensure they come out with intensity and hustle tonight as well, but if we can respond to some of their punches early (instead of missing 17 of our first 19 shots), then that should take some of the wind out of their sails.

I would say that the Hawks will use less of the one-on-one offense, but they've done it all year, so why would Woody stop now?

So my prediction is that the Hawks will actually be in Game 4. They had a players only team meeting on Sunday (I take heart in this because I don't think Woody can do a lick of good), and they have the history of coming back from an 0-2 deficit last year against a better team than the Heat.

Unfortunately I think they will lose. They have not won a road playoff game in over a decade, and considering the effort they put forth in Game 3, I don't see that changing. They simply do not have the leadership to drag the team through a road playoff game. This is evidenced by a 16-25 road record during the regular season. To pull out a road playoff game you need a performance like Wade gave the Heat in Game 2. A "screw this, we are not losing" performance. And I just don't see anyone on the Hawks roster who can deliver that. Joe has only ever done it at home.

Hawks 90, Heat 98

Game 3 Prediction

2009-04-27T13:17:00.003-04:00

I know it's too late and the ass whooping has already been doled out. But it was my job to put up the game 3 prediction and I got overwhelmed with other things.

Here are things I could not have predicted:

Joe Johnson shooting like Don Johnson
Woody ordering more subs than Jared Fogel.
Jermaine O'Neal re-resurging.
Bibby and Joe having more TOs than Assists.
No player hitting more than 5 field goals for the Hawks.

Overall it was a terrible beating. The only good part is that I had prior plans that precluded me from watching it live and forcing me to promptly delete it from my DVR upon arrival home.

I didn't really think we had a chance of winning the first game in Miami. Friday and Saturday nights lend themselves to the best crowds and combining that with the Miami locale and I figured it would be bonkers at the AAA. I was right in that regard. However, I figured we could feed (like a pro-wrestler) on the noise a little and hang with them. I was wrong in that regard.

I also figured we'd slow down their 3 point shooting a little bit. We did not do that either, to the tune of 52%. You have to keep a team under 35% (in my opinion) to be successful. 52% is just ridiculous. Combine that with 19-19 on FTs and their true shooting % has to be astronomical. I'm too lazy to calculate it, but any time a team hits 47% from the field 52% from 3pt and 100% at the line you can be pretty confident they are going to win.

There isn't much to take away from this game other than that we need to defend the 3 ball, hit more shots, and man up in the post. They seem like simple enough things. We shall see, I guess.

Game Two Prediction

2009-04-20T15:37:00.002-04:00

But first, some quick notes about Game 1:
- I thought I was going to kill Josh at the beginning of the game. He came out firing two jump shots and just looking confused on defensive rotations, once giving up a wide open 3. Luckily he got his head on straight and attacked the rim. I think he was inspired by Wade...
- Did Wade give up on the game in the second half ala Kobe a couple of years ago? I mean it looked like Wade was purposefully not shooting in the third quarter to try and show a national audience just how bad his supporting cast was.
- Wade knows that Zaza has no chance at blocking his shot. Anytime Zaza was the help defender, Wade looked to dunk all over him.

Now onto Game 2. Here are some predictions I am quite confident of.
- Josh will not get 9 buckets in the paint. The Miami big men just gave up. If they do that again, I can't see them and/or the coach staying on the team for long. I think the Heat will go to a smaller, more athletic lineup for Game 2. Josh and Al do not have very developed post games, so having O'Neal in the game is not an advantage.
- The Heat will not go 4 for 23 from 3. The Hawks played good interior D because we could slack off the 3-point shooters. It will be tougher to pack all the defenders into the paint when the 3s are falling. However, the Hawks must continue to make it difficult for the Heat guards to penetrate, otherwise they will get killed. There is no way the Heat can beat us for more than one game relying solely on jumpers. So keep packing it in.
- Someone other than Wade will score more than 10 points for the Heat. They have to, don't they?

While the Heat will perform better in Game 2 than the embarrassing Game 1 loss, I think their deficiencies and inexperience are too much for the raucous Phillips Arena environment (feels good to type that).

Hawks 95, Heat 84

How to Predict A Victory With A Blown Mind

2009-04-17T15:09:00.002-04:00

Blah blah blah, a host of excuses go out to our 11 readers (Hi Mom!) as to why there haven’t been many posts lately. But, my friends, here is the good news:
Daniel and I are making a commitment to blog about the Hawks playoff run. We won’t be predicting “Hawks in 6” or anything. Rather we will just preview each game as it comes and predict a winner for that game. Honestly, game by game will be a better way to preview and anyone who knows us, knows that we tend towards optimism when it comes to our feathered friends.

I get to talk about Game Win, I mean One happening Sunday. As 'Nique would say “I already shot my wad” with the previous sentence. I’m reasonably confident in the Hawks ability to win Game 1. My rationale in list format:

--We play better when we play confident. After winning at home in the playoffs and taking the 4th seed, we are brimming with confidence.

--We play great at home. Everyone knows this and it plays into the point above. Atlanta fans have been better lately at showing up for big games and certainly this is one.

--It’s going to take more than 1 game for the Hawks to get frustrated by the “Wade calls” and I bet there are fewer “Wade calls” by the refs in order to be able to claim impartiality. I’m dubious that it will last, but for game 1 I think we’re okay.

--While it will take a lot of energy to slow down Wade, we have two people capable of doing so: Joe and Mo will be rested and ready to slow Wade down. Conversely, there isn’t a defender on the Heat that worries me immensely against Joe, especially a rested Joe.

--Bibby looked tired as the season wore on but a week off will have done him good. He’ll drain at least 3 3s. Defensively, Chalmers doesn’t have the ability to break Bibby down the way the other quick point guards have all season.

--Bibby is also savvy enough to get Chalmers into foul trouble, which will put Chris Quinn on the floor. This is a good thing for the Hawks.

--Jermaine O’Neal and Jamaal Maglore are old. JO has aged in dog years over the last 3 season and looks to be about 57. Combine the energy of the home crowd with that of Smoove and “The Boss” Horford and O’Neal/Jamaal will be gassed early.

--Beasley will be shaky and commit some stupid turnovers and/or fouls. He will get frustrated. He may even get T’d up. He reminds me a LOT of Josh Smith and when things don’t go his way he tends to give up. He’ll give up early.

It is likely the Hawks will do their normal routine of getting down in the first quarter, bringing it closer in the second, playing even or worse in the third and pulling away in the 4th. Wade won’t let them get down by a ton but with about 8 mins to go in the 4th the Hawks will have the game in control and will work out the victory (something they have been improving at towards the end of the season).

Final score: Atlanta 101 Miami 93
Joe puts up a line around 22 pts 5 rebs 7 ast and limits Wade to about the same (which is a good thing since the rest of the Hawks’ roster is demonstrably better than the Heats’)

Philly or Miami?

2009-04-03T07:01:00.004-04:00

The 76ers just passed the Heat in the standings for the 5th seed, which means the Hawks would play them in the first round. In my mind, this is a wonderful thing. While the 76ers have more depth and seem to play us really well, I really, really, really, really, don't want to play Wade (and the refs) in a playoff series.

Really don't.

You Have To Watch When...

2009-03-13T10:36:00.005-04:00

So I was getting ready for bed last night and flipped on the TV to catch Sportscenter. Instead the UConn vs Syracuse men's basketball game was still going. At this point, it was the second over time game.

I am tired this morning.

You see, I felt this obligation to watch the end of the game. At the 2OT point, anything can really happen. So I stayed up later than intended to watch the finish of the game (which, compared to the previous 7 periods, was fairly anticlimatic).

This all got me thinking this morning: There should be rules to determine what situations mandate watching the rest of a game if you stumble across it inadvertently. Please feel free to add to this as it is a work in progress (in no particular order. perhaps we could rank them after a solid list is formed).

--Any college basketball game involving a top 25 team that is in the 2nd OT or later --MLT
--Any NFL game where the trailing team has the ball and less than 3 minutes to score --MLT
--Any MLB game that goes 11 or more innings --MLT
--Any CFB game where a huge underdog is leading after halftime -- MLT
--Any game where a significant record may be broken --MLT
--Any NBA game where a major star has over 30 points in the first half (LeBron, Kobe, Wade and perhaps Durant and Roy in the future)--MLT
--Any major college rivalry that is either close at the end (1 score in football or 2 possessions in basketball with under 2 minutes to go). --Daniel

Hawks and Drinking

2009-03-07T09:07:00.002-05:00

Right now the two go hand-and-hand. Watching the Hawks play makes me need a drink more than a day of clients screaming at me. And this tidbit from the AJC certainly does not help, "Hawks coach Mike Woodson benched starting power forward Josh Smith after halftime, the result of a heated disagreement between the two in the locker room during the break."

Scotch? Yes please.

Campaigning for Acie Law

2009-03-05T09:52:00.003-05:00

So MLT, understandably, turned off the Hawks game against the Knicks before the brief 3-minute stint by Acie Law in the last 3 minutes of the game. Woody called a timeout with 3 minutes left to play with the Hawks down by 15. I decided to stay with the Hawks game for two reasons. One, you never know if you can come back against the Knicks. Two, Woody might actually put in Law, who had not played the whole game.

Teams score the easiest against the Knicks when you can penetrate from the perimeter. They're not so great on the help defense. Bibby, while a great outside shooter, cannot beat his guy off the dribble. Law, on the other hand, was all about the dribble penetration in college (I refer to college because Woody hasn't let him play enough in the NBA to reference any of his deeds in the pros).

So what happens when Law finally enters in the game against the Knicks? He goes buck wild. More than likely Woody thought the game was out of reach, so he didn't bother trying to call "plays" (these "plays" usually include people running around aimlessly with no one getting open for 3-4 seconds and then isolating for Joe. Why we need a timeout to set this up is beyond me). With this freedom Law drove past his man on pretty much every offensive possession and either gave to Al for an easy bucket or kicked to an open shooter on the perimeter. He even hit an open 3 of his own. He got 4 assists in that brief 3-minute stint. Then he made a great defensive play on Duhon on the sideline that caused a turnover with 8 seconds to play with the Hawks down by only 4. Law almost single-handedly caused an 11-point swing.

At this point I am praying that they just inbound the ball to Law and let him continue to do his thing. Instead Woody calls a timeout and tries to call one of his patented "plays." The result? Joe throws up an airball from 3. Sad when I feel like the Hawks have a better chance to score when the coach has nothing to do with the play.

Who to fault?

2009-03-05T09:00:00.002-05:00

So after miserable performances like last night's loss against the Knicks, where does the blame ultimately lie?

Perhaps it lies at the feet of Josh Smith, who was outrebounded by every other member of the Hawks, including Mike Bibby.

Perhaps it lies at the feet of the collective 6-25 shooting effort behind the arc.

Perhaps it lies at the feet of Mike Bibby for being horrible on defense and -8 for the game.

Really though, it lies at the feet of Head Coach Mike Woodson and the media (especially including our own announcers).

So, by now the Woodson fault is probably obvious. Failure to develop Acie Law (even though he was terrific in his 3 minutes last night +10), failure to develop an offense, failure to adjust to other teams, failure to continue pounding the ball deep when we have an advantage inside, failure to appropriately manage minutes thus wearing the major players out, and so on.

But why the media and local announcers? Because they have failed to hold Woodson accountable. A collective amnesia has overcome the media ever since the Hawks took the Celtics to 7. Somehow, losing in the first round became more than just a great sign of an emerging team. It became a level of infallibility for a coach who has still lost almost twice as many games as he has won. Instead of understanding that the wins over Boston were a result of more effort and grit than coaching acumen, the coach is getting credit for "motivating them" than is actually due.

So I can't really blame Woodson too readily for his failures this season. For example: say you are a sales representative for a company. After months of not selling anything, you decide that the effort you were putting forth wasn't worth it. So you begin to sleep on the job, show up late, not wear a tie. You are seemingly on the brink of being fired. One day a desperate customer happens upon you and you make a huge sale that breathes a little life into the company. You are then hailed as the savior to the company and given free reign to work as you please. So you go back to your old habits, showing up late, sleeping at work, etc. Only you happen to make a sale or two to the previous desperate customer and a couple of his friends. But your boss is okay with this because your "work" is better than before (not really, though) and you are bringing in more business.

That's where we are with the Hawks. Only no one (other than bloggers whose word means nothing) is willing to acknowledge it. Sure, we could make more sales and huge profits for the company if we got a salesman who knew what he was doing and could put his team in the right position. But the increase in sales we have experienced is sufficient for management despite there being no change in philosophy. So, Woody gets credit for the Hawks winning despite horrible mismanagement of the roster and the national and local media give him a pass for effectively sleeping on the job and showing up late to work.

And I can't blame Woody for that, totally. He has been basically told that he is doing fine.

During last night's game, the Hawks were 1-16 on 3 pointers at one point but had scored 42 points in the paint in the first quarter. And yet we are still hoisting 3's in the fourth quarter rather than going back to what was successful early on. Sure, it was Woodson's fault by not forcing the ball in to the post. But it was also Wilkins' (who has a terrible conflict of interest) and Rathburn's job to criticize the Hawk's (i.e. Woodson's) lack of strategy and adjustment. Only they didn't. Maybe they are only allowed to be homers, but I wish they would be a bit more like the old Braves announcers. Calling it like it is may not be nice, but it draws attention to the weaknesses and forces management to fix them. And surely that is not a bad thing.

Why are the Hawks so Maddening?

2009-02-27T14:45:00.002-05:00

The short answer: the Hawks are the opposite of the Falcons.

After starting out the year 6-0, I, along with many people, had high hopes for the Hawks season. All of a sudden the deflating off-season where the Hawks lost Childress and played chicken with J-Smoove turned into thoughts of a 50-win season and challenging the Magic for the Southeast division title. These expectations, while fun to roll around in at the time, inflated my hopes too high for this team. To see them play hard, team defense. To see them swing the ball around the perimeter to find the open shooter. To see Joe take over in the 4th in a close game. These wonderful things proved fleeting as the long-haul of the season wore on.

Sometimes the good Hawks will come to play an entire game (I remember somewhere in the drunken haze of my bachelor party that the Hawks played well when we beat the Cavs in Atlanta in December). Sometimes the good Hawks will play only a quarter (usually either the 1st or the 4th). Sometimes the good Hawks won't play for a couple of games.

And that is what is so maddening. The utter inconsistency. The Falcons played way above their heads to get to their 11-5 record, but you knew it. That's what made it so fun. Despite the fact that the Hawks have a winning record this late in the season for the first time 1999, there are times I want to go crazy watching them. And it is because they keep giving you glimpses of how good they could be, and then they'll lapse into the same losing patterns of the last 4 or so years.

I'd be so much happier with the 32-25 record if I didn't think they could already have 40 wins.

Would the Hawks Be Better Without Josh Smith?

2009-02-26T09:08:00.003-05:00

Last night's game against the Nuggets kept making me think: would the Hawks be better without Josh Smith? Seeing Horford play PF and use his size and quickness advantage time and time again to the tune of a double double really enforced what everyone has been saying: that he is playing out of position. Now, I knew this was true for a while but my homerism may have blinded me to just how big a difference there is when he is at PF versus at C.

Al was able to use his inside and outside game in a balanced effort which made the defense play him honest. This, in turn, set him up for either open shots, easy rebounds, or quick put-backs time and time again.

So are the Hawks doing the team a disservice by playing him at the Center position with Josh at the 4. Now I know Josh *can* be a game changing PF but the question that keeps coming up to me is: could we get a reliable true Center or upgrade at PG for him. With Bibby and ZaZa coming off the books at the end of the year, we will have two holes to fill in a market that isn't exactly flourish with talent. While both have said they would like to stay, you never know how free agency will change their mindset.

Perhaps trading Josh for a true Center (maybe for Kaman and the Clippers draft pick) in the offseason would balance the roster a bit more and make the team more consistent. If we are going to play a slower paced game, we ought to get the talent on the floor to match that and Josh simply doesn't fit.

Don't get me wrong, I've been a huge Josh Smith fan since he came out and have forgave repeatedly the mental lapses. However, at a certain point the team has to look at putting the entire team in the best position possible and I wonder if we can do that while trying to start both Al and Josh. Additionally, with the emergence of Marvin, having a true PF (which Josh really isn't) and a true C (which Al really isn't) would free up more space for Bibby, Joe, and Marvin to work on the wings.

p.s. Flip should never guard Billups. Ever. Like not even while playing NBA 2k9. He got torched last night and the 37 FTs Billups took made me sad.

Junior, the Sr. Version

2009-02-16T12:00:00.003-05:00

Rumors have noisened over the past couple of days about the possible addition of Ken Griffey, Jr. to the Atlanta Braves. These rumors have made me quite nostalgic. You see, back around 2000, Daniel and I used to play the 'what if' game about Junior. Mainly, 'what if' we could somehow get Junior and pair him in the outfield with Andruw. Eventually we came up with the idea that you could just play those two in the outfield and have a 'short fielder' much like in sotfball. Someone who plays on the OF grass just behind second base. This would basically stop anyone from stealing, cut down on the number of infield hits as well as the number of grounders making it through entirely. It was our brilliant idea and our eternal hope.

Now here we are, Andruw-less (thankfully) but with the prospect of getting Junior to call The Ted home. I am here to say: let's do it!

Sure he is aging. He isn't the defensive player he used to be nor is he the hitter he once was. However, he is perfect for the Braves.

Here's why:

-Bobby loves platoons. Diaz and 'The kid' are both amenable to playing in one.
-Griffey hit over .300 against the NL East last year.
-Warmer weather could lessen the injury risk for Griffey.
-Griffey could provide veteran leadership for a young team
-He could help our young left-handers develop at the plate (McCann, Kotchman, Johnson)
-He could play LF or RF (in case Francouer didn't just suck due to being a fatty last year)
-He WANTS to play in Atlanta

Sure there is an injury risk and no, he isn't going to give us a .300 average and 30+ homers. But he would be a steadying influence and a minimal risk for the club. At best, he boosts our offense and plays servicable defense while helping lead the club. At worst, he fills a gap while our young players get more seasoning (Schafer, Gorkys) in the minors.

I say get this done Wren!

Hawks Wheelin' and Dealin'

2009-02-14T12:40:00.004-05:00

So, inspired by the ESPN Trade Machine, the latest Simmons article, and the impending trade deadline, here are some trades that would improve the Hawks that I think both teams would make:

Simmons suggestion: Butler, Juan Dixon and Darius Songaila's crappy contract to Atlanta for Marvin Williams, Speedy Claxton's not-quite-as-crappy contract, Acie Law and a future No. 1. This trade would give Atlanta an upgrade at the SF position from the developing Marvin to the developed Butler, an upgrade at the back-up PG position, and little more depth in the frontcourt with Songaila. Meanwhile Washington would get two young players with potential, the insurance money from Speedy, and a future no. 1. The draft pick wouldn't hurt the Hawks that much since we'll be picking pretty low in the first round if we picked up Butler.

The Hawks obviously need to try and get either some more depth or improve in the frontcourt, so here are some trades that could bring that:
Speedy, Zaza and a No. 1 to the Clippers for Marcus Camby. This would give the Hawks a HUGE upgrade as Camby would be the starting center and Horford would become one of the best bench frontcourt players in the game. The Clippers would get an expiring contract, insurance money from Speedy and a No. 1. But sources say Camby is untouchable. So...
Speedy and Zaza for Kaman. The Clippers get out from under Kaman's remaining 4 years since they now have both Zach Randolph and Camby, and the Hawks get an upgrade at center. Might demand a pick though...

Speedy, Zaza, and a No. 1 for Brad Miller. Same logic as with the Camby trade, except that Miller isn't as good. Maybe we could just give them a No. 2...

Here's one of my favorite though...
Bibby, Zaza and Speedy for Hinrich, Larry Hughes and Noah. The Bulls get out from under the Hughes and Hinrich contracts. They also get back two expiring contracts with a veteran PG who can continue to tutor Derrick Rose. The Hawks meanwhile get back a decent PG, an overpaid bench player, and the chance to reunite Noah and Horford. I'd do it since we have no guarantee of re-signing Bibby, especially for a reasonable contract considering his age and defensive ability.

Any suggestions?

Inside Woodson's Mind

2009-02-10T13:31:00.003-05:00

The last week has been a very difficult time for the coach of the Hawks, Mike Woodson. He had to coach three games without his heart, his soul, his Joe. How did Woodson cope with this loss? Well he did like any of us would, and went into complete and utter denial... at least I imagine he did. Let's take a peak into what it was like:

(In the locker room before the Minnesota game)

Woody: Alright guys just remember to not mess up on anything, even things I haven't bothered to coach you on, or I will glare at you slack-jawed. And remember what I've been preaching recently, you've got to start slowly in these games. The first half is really just about warming up and making sure no one pulls anything. And always remember the number 1 rule on offense: Pass it to Joe and get out of the way.

Marvin: But coach, isn't Joe sick in Atlanta?

Woody: If there are no questions, let's get out there.

(later in the game Woody talks to Marvin on the bench)

Woody: Joe, you've gotten your 2 minutes of rest in, I need you to get back out there and carry the team on your shoulders. Lord knows Marvin can't even stop crapping his shorts.

Marvin: Uhh... coach?

Woody: Get back in there Joe, we've got to get you on the all-star team!

AND SCENE.

Horrible? Yeah, I thought so. But not as horrible as the quote highlighted over on Peachtree Hoops. Nice picture choice Drew.

Joe is Not a Dominant #1

2009-01-29T08:26:00.004-05:00

First off I want to clarify that this post is not an attack on Joe Johnson. I love the guy. He chose to come to a brutally bad franchise, put the team on his back, and carried them back to the playoffs last year and a winning record this year. By no means a simple feat since the Hawks do not have another consistent scoring option. And no, Flip Murray jacking up shot after shot does not count.

However, I can tell you now that Joe will never carry a team to the finals and especially not to a championship carrying the majority of the load. Once again, this is not an insult. By my count there are only 6 guys in the NBA that can carry a team to a championship: LeBron, Wade, Kobe, Paul, Howard (in a couple of years if not now), and Duncan. That's it. If you don't have one of those 6 guys, then you need to surround yourself with some good other talent. I think Joe could have been one of the league's all-time best #2 options in the right environment. I'm talking Pippin good. But we don't have a Jordan on our team, so the question remains where do the Hawks go from here?

The main thing the Hawks need to do if find a consistent #2 scoring option. Right now we don't have it. Bibby is a glorified jump shooter, he can't get open on his own when it counts. Josh's offensive game consists of putting his head down and recklessly charging the basket. Marvin has the potential, but he is too timid and not developed enough in the paint. Horford has the chance as well, but his post game needs to be refined. Right now he has one post move, the baby hook from the left block.

So the question remains, how do we get a #2 scoring option? Do we continue to hope our young guys develop into that option by accident and summer training (they sure as hell aren't getting it from Woody), or do we take a chance, deal some of our assets, and acquire a #2 scoring option like Cleveland did to get Mo Williams (who is like a younger Bibby)? We need to acquire that option if our young players can't develop within the next couple of years since Joe is just getting older, and next year is his last year. Do we try to trade Bibby's expiring contract this year? Do we wait until his salary comes off the books and try to sign a free agent? Do we try to pry Monta Ellis from the Warriors since they are allegedly upset with him?

More than likely there will be no moves this year as our GM lets the team and the fans taste a winning record before shaking things up. So these questions and more will have to wait until the offseason.

We Don't Believe You Anymore

2009-01-28T10:45:00.002-05:00

So how many times can you say a thing before people simply stop believing you? Woodson has reached that point (some would argue a long time ago) concerning Joe Johnson and rest. The man is averaging 39.9 minutes per game, good for 1st in the league. And it's not like this is a new thing, he's been averaging around 40 minutes for the last 6 seasons. I don't care who you are, that is putting some miles on your knees and ankles. Factor in also that he is still the main offensive option for the Hawks, and you have some serious fatigue.

Let's take a look at some specific examples of abusing Joe on back-to-backs:
1/25 and 1/26: 43 and 44 minutes
1/19 and 1/20: 45 and 45 minutes
1/2 and 1/3: 45 and 39 minutes

And that's just this year. There's only 48 minutes in a game, how do you only give the man 6 minutes of rest combined in two games?!

So how then are we supposed to react when Sekou has this in his article on 1/27, "Woodson acknowledged that he has to do something to find Johnson some rest"? This is like the 10th time he's said or acknowledged that this year! He needs to sit down and watch nothing but Spurs tapes on how to manage your star's minutes. That and how to stop lying to people...

Why Not?

2009-01-27T11:13:00.005-05:00

Daniel messaged me today (likely after reading Simmons most recent column) and the following conversation ensuded:

Daniel: you know what I would love?
me: a creamsicle?
Daniel: the Braves to sign Manny
me: i was thinking that same thing today

Aside from the creamsicle, we both agreed that signing Manny just made sense. The on-field reasons: We need a #4 hitter. He fits that perfectly. We need a right handed power hitter. He fits that perfectly. We need a left fielder. I won't say perfectly, but he is adequate there.

To along with that we have plenty of backups ready to fill in when Manny decides he needs a day or two off. Additionally, the rest of our defense is above average so we can make do with a sub-par LF.

The off field reasons: There isn't a ton of interest in him which should keep his price down (not cheap, but not $18 mil/year). He is actually fairly durable averaging 142 games over the past 14 years, never missing more than 45 games in a single season. He would stand a good chance of thriving under a laid back manager in Bobby Cox. Atlanta has a large latin community and is not too far from his home in Miami.

Additionally, he wouldn't have to be a leader and he could mentor some of our younger hitters like Escobar. Taking all this into account, wouldn't $40-45 million over 3 years get the job done. He would take pressure off of the rest of the offense and the lineup would look something like:

Kelly Johnson 2B Bats: Left
Yunel Escobar SS Bats: Right
Chipper Jones 3B Bats: Switch
Manny Ramirez LF Bats: Right
Brian McCann C Bats: Left
Casey Kotchman 1B Bats: Left
Jeff Francouer RF Bats: Right
Jordan Schafer CF Bats: Left
P

So we'd have a good mix of lefties and righties and flexibility off the bench with Norton, Prado, Infante, Anderson, etc.

What's not to like?

Why So Quiet?

2009-01-21T10:24:00.005-05:00

Well. Because nothing major has happened in the world of Atlanta sports. There has neither been great news nor has there been terrible news. Just a modicum of good and 'meh' news. Today we'll focus on the Braves

Good:
Braves get a trio of new starting pitching. Nothing glitzy but after the maddening past few years of 4 inning pitchers and $15 million disabled vets, the Braves sought more stability. Personally, I agree with and love this strategy. Is this a pitching staff that can win a championship? Doubtful. However, this IS a great rotation to help develop our young players. At the major league level we are going to tax our bullpen less, give our offense a more consistent chance to stay in games, and keep our not quite ready talent in the minors to develop. Compare that with the past few years where we have been forced to bring up unready players, blown out ligaments of half of our bullpen, and forced our offense to try to come back from big deficit after big deficit. Did we pay "too much for Lowe"? Probably, but in the long run that investment pays off with the development of our other players that we were able to rest, leave in the minors, etc.

Getting rid of Smoltz will help us. Look. I love Smoltz. My dad loves Smoltz and he lives 1000 miles away from Atlanta. I admire a man who can work so hard through injury and be confident despite being bald since age 20. But the ridiculous notion that we "owed" Smoltz something was asinine. He told the Braves he would wait on them and make sure his arm is ready before negotiating. Then he got antsy and other teams opened their wallets. The Braves took a hard look and basically said "we'd love to have you if you are healthy, here is a contact that will reward you if you are." And he wasn't happy with it so he bolted. To blame the Braves for being prudent and neglecting sentimentality is insane. If we had resigned Smoltz and he didn't pitch an inning, the same media would skewer us. I wish Smoltz the best of luck but worry the cold air is going to tighten his shoulder and we won't see him on the mound come fall. And then he'll be back in the booth in Atlanta where he belongs.

Not wasting money or assets on Dunn, Dye, assortment of terrible OF options. Again, if we were close to a championship I would say the Braves should take the risk and get that one more guy. But right now we have a boatload of ML ready Outfielders who, at the least, will play slightly worse than anyone we could attain at about 1/10th the price. Blanco, Schafer, Gorkys, Anderson all have proven in the minors that they are ready for a shot and the Braves ought to not waste their assets at trying to get a marginal improvement. Instead, let the 'kids' play and see what you have after they get a regular opportunity. At worst we have capable platoon players (which Bobby loves) and a deeper bench than most teams. At best one of them shakes out to be a slightly above average player and we haven't wasted any money or players to improve the team.

The Bad:

Francouer. I am hopeful that his better diet and workout regimen will lead to increased productivity. But the fact of the matter is that it is his head that is slow, not his swing. Further evidenced by his demand for $4 million in arbitration while his best friend and All Star catcher is making $3.5 million this year. Over and over we see players that can't handle the pressure and the notoriety of playing in their home town. It seems like Frenchy may be one of those players. Unless he shows some humility at some point and is willing to accept his weaknesses and work on them, he won't improve and we will be seeing him in a Royals or Pirates uniform. And I'm okay with that.

Long term players who think they are the front office. Chipper is a great great hitter and an underappreciated fielder. He is not, however, the GM. To hear his inane comments of how Smoltz was treated was an exercise in stupidity. Of course a player is going to miss a long time teammate but to act like the Braves did something "wrong" in this just makes Chipper look like a moron. The quotes might have well read "reached via satellite phone while hiding in bushes hunting deer with a bowie knife Chipper Jones replied to the Smoltz signing by saying 'well darn, now I don't know what's gunna happen to me. I wonder what it's like to track deer in the snow.'" Let the front office handle the roster, Chipper. I hate to say it, but they could all learn a lesson from Glavine in the fine art of "keeping your mouth shut when you aren't involved."

So overall, I give the offseason an "A" from the front office. I'm sure all 3 of you readers out there are thinking "AN A? HOW CAN YOU GIVE THIS AN A? NO PEAVY, NO AJ, NO CC, NO HITTER?" But the committment to building takes time and patience. So far we have given up very little (a defensively limited catcher about whom it had been written that he had a career as a DH) and ended up with a sturdy rotation. Knowing that your rotation is the key to your success as it makes your bullpen stronger, your defense look better, and puts less pressure on your offense is a sign that Wren is trying to right the ship. Not bending to the whining of fans and players alike and being smart with every dollar in his budget, leaving room for flexibility means the opportunity for changes down the road. All this has been done with an eye to the future. After being spoiled for 14 years in a row it is hard to be patient as a fan. But the Falcons have shown us what having a plan and working towards it can do.

Maybe not Braves in 09, but Braves in 11 could be the key.

Looking Back

2009-01-09T16:12:00.003-05:00

Well the season is over, and I have finally come to grips with giving up a first down on 3rd and 16 with the game on the line. Now it's time for the fun part: looking back at my predictions at the beginning of the season and seeing how I did. I know you're excited, so here we go!

On offense, I believe the biggest question mark will not be Ryan, but rather our offensive line.
I believe, however, if they are able to make some holes for Turner and Norwood, and if they are able to keep Matt Ryan in one piece, then the Falcons offense could surprise some people.

Well I was right that Ryan wouldn't be that big of a question mark, but I was way off on the offensive line. They only allowed 17 sacks of Ryan in 17 games, and they paved the way for a total of 2,443 rushing yards including 1,699 from Turner.

I believe that Matt Ryan will have an average statistical year, but he will make leaps and bounds in becoming an NFL QB and, more importantly, he will further solidify his status as a leader of the offense. He's already got his receivers pointing at him after they catch scores.

Wow, pretty dead on with that. Ryan's stat line reads 265-434 for 3,440 yards, 61.1 completion percentage, 16 tds and 11 ints for a passer rating of 87.7. Nothing special for your average QB, but great for a rookie. Also I think it's pretty obvious Ryan is the unquestioned leader of the offense.

I believe that the combo of Turner and Norwood will gash defenses for close to 2,000 yards, and Turner especially will take a ton of pressure off of Ryan.

True, except for the fact that Turner and Norwood combined for OVER 2,000 yards for a total of 2,188 yards. Turner was especially able to let Ryan grow without too much pressure over the first few games of the season.

I believe that our receivers will continue to mature, led by Roddy White who will be noted more for his stats this year rather than his choice of uniform accessories.

True for Roddy White. He finished with 88 receptions, 1382 yards, a pro bowl selection, and, more importantly, got attention for his skill rather than his uniform. Jenkins started to round into shape, but still has plenty of work to do. Unfortunately Laurent Robinson was hurt most of the year. However, this is the first offseason where WR isn't a need position.

I believe that no one in our secondary could start for any other team.

Probably too harsh. Chris Houston improved a lot as the season went on, and I was a fan Foxworth. The promise Grimes showed in the offseason fizzled a bit, and I think Chevis Jackson shows promise. He at least knows how to go to house when he gets a pick. Erik Coleman was a surprise at safety and hopefully will continue to develop. On the other hand Milloy continues to slide. I love his leadership and his run support, but he's a bit of a liability in coverage. Rumors are flying that he might get cut in the offseason.

On that note, I believe that our secondary will give up a ton a big passing plays, but they will improve as the year goes on.

Off on that one. Forgot that Mike Smith loves to play the zone. So while teams could dink and dunk us, we didn't get burnt by the deep ball much.

I believe that we could get a good pass rush from DEs Anderson and Abraham if Abraham stays healthy for 16 games.

Well we got a good pass rush from Abraham. However when he's hurting or getting double-teamed, we didn't get much pass rush from anyone else. Takes Grady too long to get to the QB. Either Anderson has to realize his potential or we need to find some other solution.

I believe Abraham will get hurt.

Held up pretty well. Smith's plan to give him more plays off worked well and even Abraham bought into it, which is rare for a star player.

I believe our linebacking core is deep and talented, and that Boley and Brooking will be able to protect whichever middle linebacker plays between Taylor and Lofton.

Maybe not so much. Boley underperformed against the rush to the point that Coy Wire came in on first and second down. I love Brooking's leadership, but in terms of football ability he needs to play a smaller role or get cut. Lofton was great and looks to be a stalward in the middle for years to come.

I believe resigning Grady "Fat" Jackson (note: not his real nickname) was one of the smartest offseason moves for the Falcons.

Maybe not the smartest considering how well some of our other signings did this year, but Fat definitely plugged a big hole in the middle of our D-line. I would hate to be a QB getting sacked by him.

I believe that signing Jason Elam was another great move this offseason as he will win 2-3 games for a Falcons team that will grind out every game and every possession they have.

True. See picture above.

I believe the Eagles (if McNabb is healthy) and the Chargers are the only teams that scare me on the Falcons schedule.

I was more right than I thought considering the Eagles weren't that great when we faced them, and the Chargers took till week 14 to put everything together. I don't think anyone predicted, however, just how good the NFC south was, especially at home. (Damn you Saints for the one home loss within the division!)

I believe the Falcons will win 6 games.

Way off and couldn't be happier.

More Sweet Than Bitter

2009-01-04T01:40:00.002-05:00

But trust me, I am a little bitter. A wonderful Falcons season was derailed in the playoffs by one man: Keith Brooking. As a veteran he has been known for his "sure tackling" and "awareness". That's basically what you say about a player when they are slow and aging. Going beyond Brooking's ENORMOUS mental lapse on the critical 3rd and 15 when he opted to run up to the underneath receiver instead of the deep receiver who sat down in the hole right at the first down marker. It was the quantity of missed tackles that did us in. Playing LB is all about getting to the ball carrier and bringing them down. The line creates seams for you to come through, the DBs cover the receivers downfield, the LBs are left to cover the middle and stop the ball. Brooking failed repeatedly. It shouldn't have been much of a suprise as we have seen him do this all season long. However, Arizona ran at him and watched him try his patented "grab the ballcarrier and let him take me an extra 5 yards." They also passed his way a lot to the TE exploiting his major weaknessl; coverage.

With an emerging team it seems like we no longer need his "veteran presence". I hope the Falcon's brass is smart enough to jettison him and his inflated salary in the offseason (where I'm sure he'll end up in NE--where white 35 year old LBs go to flourish). Ideally a LB like Maluaga or Laurinitis will be waiting for us in the draft. A man can dream.

Oh, and I hope Vince Carter breaks a nail and has to miss two months.

No Love for The Predator

2008-12-17T11:00:00.004-05:00

Really? I know that the Pro Bowl is a joke, the fans are notoriously bad voters, and that no one really watches the game, but really? No love for the man with the 3rd most sacks at 15.5, which is more than the league leader (Jared Allen) had last year? Really?

Ah well, that just means that I might feel some sympathy for Tarvaris Jackson or Gus Frerotte as Abraham takes out his frustration on the Vikings QB de jour. Might...

Speaking of sacks, they are WAY up this year. In 2007 the league leader had 15.5 sacks, in 2006 it was 17.0, and in 2005 it was 16.0. This year, with two weeks left the leaderboard reads 19.0, 17.5, 15.5, 15.0, and 14.5. That's some major sackage (that's what she said). I blame it on the prevalence of the shotgun spread and the fact that teams are passing more and more. By spreading out the field with receivers, teams are also leaving fewer people back to protect the QB. Additionally more passing downs means more opportunities to sack and plunder the QB's backfield (you thought I was going to say backside, didn't you?).

But in summary, screw you pro bowl voters!

Stocking Stuffer

2008-12-16T10:44:00.004-05:00

Little thoughts about Atlanta sports.

Starting with...The Braves offseason.

So far we have traded for a workhorse, signed (likely) a leadoff hitter and middle infielder, missed out on an injury prone strikeout pitcher, and held our ground against Kevin Tower's ridiculous demands.

I've already stated that the trade for Javier was a great move. Our pitching needs stability and consistency, he provides that. Our bullpen will be better due to added rest and our hitters will relax not thinking they have to score 10 every game to win.

Losing out on Burnett is a mixed bag. While I'd like to have a pitcher of his caliber on the team, I'm sure I won't be regretting it this July or next when he is disabled and the Yankees are eating his salary. I also don't mind not spending 16 million on a pitcher who we hope has kicked his injury bug. We just got done doing that already.

I like the Furcal signing a lot. It gives us flexibility, maturity (who ever thought we'd say that about Raffy), and a pure leadoff hitter. His ability (and willingness) to play 2B or SS gives us roster flexibility to trade either Kelly or Yunel without hurting ourselves offensively or much defensively. The shortness of the contract with an option year is also a nice touch to limit our exposure if Furcal declines suddenly.

Relatedly, the Peavy trade is "only mostly dead." Furcal's signing does give the Braves the option to trade one of them to the Padres in a package. At this point, I'm not sure the Braves want to take back in salary as much as Peavy is owed. Really, with the upgrade on the offense and less strain on the bullpen, a starter more like Greinke would be ideal. It would also cost less in prospects and we could perhaps fill a gap or two. Something like Kelly, Gorkys, Locke for Greinke and DeJesus.

The Falcons Miraculous Run

With three close losses and two ugly ones early in the season, the Falcons are proving that they have the testicular fortitude to fight back and pull out tough games. While the Bears' win was on the shoulders of Ryan, the victors against the Bucs came as a result of our O-Line punishing the injury plagued front of the Pirates of TampaBay. Coupled with Abraham's desire to remind everyone how dominant he can be, it was a complete team effort. The true measure of a team is how it responds against adversity and when a key player had a bad game. The coaching staff's ability to recognize and make adjustments was key in getting the Falcons drive going in OT but also in the defense's ability to stop the Bucs after watching Dunn and Bryant go crazy in the second half.

That has been the key all season that has been lacking in the past, specifically in regards to our last "franchise quarterback." While Ryan has gotten accolades, he has been the first to admit that the success of this team is a result of everyone "buying in" and working hard day in and day out to improve as an unit. As the season winds down, it is not pure talent that wins games--it is preparation, determination, and heart. For once, the Falcons have all three and it's a pleasure to watch--win or lose.

The Hawks Home Soaring

After playing 2/3 of their games on the road, the Hawks have looked road weary. The trip to Texas was the same as it always is: a slog through tough road losses. No longer could the team blame the "injury bug" as the entire team was basically healthy. Fortunately, the Hawks remained playing at the Texas teams' level of competition against some inferior teams back on the East Coast. Even though they weren't able to sprint out to big leads and coast, the Hawks seemed in control of themselves at least. Basketball is about confidence and the Hawks seem like they have more of a feel for what they want to do offensively and defensively.

The addition of shooters like Flip (when he's hot) and Mo and emergence of Marvin's beautiful stroke from the corners has freed up more space. While it is not being regularly used to get in the lane, it is creating more ball movement and open shots. Josh Smith has been his usual maddening self going through spurts where he wants to shoot jumpers more than bang in the post. I'd like to attribute that to him needing to get a little more conditioning and being tired from his defensive assignments, I can't help but be pessimistic that it's "Josh being Josh." That said, he is still a great weakside defender and alters twice as many shots per game as he blocks so his value is somewhat hard to calculate statistically (as there is no substantial way to figure out how many of his 'altered shots' don't go in).

I would like to see Woody stick with a rotation and commit to developing emerging talent like Acie and Solo. I would also like to see Woody listen to every statistician and Drew and CoCo and STOP FRIGGING PLAYNG ACIE AND FLIP TOGETHER. You can't develop a PG when your "shooting guard" decides that he = LeBron and can go 1v5 and won't give up the ball. Maybe give him a new pair of shoes for every pass he completes or something. I like Flip in the 4th because he does have Sam Cassellitis and isn't afraid of the big shot, but if we're going to have a shot in the playoffs we need to have a quality backup PG who can actually defend something.

The Thrashers

I'm kidding I'm kidding. And since there is no news to report on the Dawg front, for once all is peachy in the sports world. It's nice to feel like it's good to be a fan all around for once.

What I Love Best About This Year's Hawks

2008-12-04T16:15:00.002-05:00

Ball Movement. And no, that's not a joke about the maturation of the Hawks. I mean there seem to be fewer and fewer instances of the give it to Joe and get out of the way offense. No offense to Joe, but that's not the most efficient offense if the other team knows how to play defense at all.

Let's take last night's game for instance. All of the starters had at least 4 assists, led by Bibby's 10. On 40 made field goals, the Hawks assisted on 33 of them (82.5%). Granted this was against the Grizzlies, and the Hawks (and by the Hawks I mean Woody) tend to curl up in the fetal position offensively and just try to cram Joe down the other teams throat when the score is close late in the game, but it's just nice to see the ball swing around the perimeter to find an open shooter in the corner. It's such a simple thing, but it's so beautiful since I haven't seen the Hawks consistently do it in so many years.

Just watch the highlights from last night and go to the 1:12 mark. It's just beautiful.

Please Don't Suspend "Fat" Jackson!

2008-12-03T11:17:00.004-05:00

This morning the AJC is reporting that while six NFL players have been suspended due to using a diet pill banned by the NFL, Jackson's appeal is still pending:

"Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jackson’s appeal of his four-game suspension remains pending before the NFL office, which has requested further information, according to league spokesman Greg Aiello."

The article further states:

"Aiello said the league would decide Jackson’s appeal “as soon as possible." The Falcons are 8-4 and in the thick of the NFC playoff race. With four games left in the season, Jackson could be in danger of missing a round of the playoffs if his case is not decided before Sunday’s game."

I think I'm of the opinion that the longer we can push off any potential suspension, the better. Even if that means Jackson missing the first round of the playoffs. Right now we're fighting for a playoff spot, and Jackson is our one true run-stuffer. Without him, things get more difficult. I'd rather make the playoffs and lose, then fall short. It certainly did wonders for the Hawks confidence as a team...

Why The Javier Freak Out

2008-12-03T09:50:00.005-05:00

Reports today indicate that the Braves made their first big deal of the offseason coming to terms with the Chicago White Sox on a trade for RHP Javier Vazquez.

I've been browsing comments on all the fan blogs and websites and the overwhelming sentiment is that we gave up too much. To which I respond: huh?

Here is what we get:
A pitcher with a career .500 record a slightly below league average ERA who tosses just under 1K/IP and about 2BB/GS. A pitcher still reasonably young (32) who has started 32 games and thrown 200 Innings every year for the last decade without any history of injuries. A pitcher who has pitched well at Turner Field in his career and could thrive under a less pressuring manager than Ozzie Guillen (that is to say, anyone else).

Here is what we give up:
An A-Ball Catcher who hit the hell out of the ball in the AFL but struggles behind the plate.
A middle infielder who looked (like he is 11) way over his head at the ML level.
A LHP who was so terribly inconsistent that it didn't look like he would ever "figure it out" (Kyle Davies redux).
A throw in low A LHP who no one knew anything about.

So in essence we get 2 years of 200 IP with a league average ERA for 11 million per year and we give up nothing that would have started for our ball club the next 2 years. Additionally, none of the prospects for this deal were keys in a deal for Peavy. Not that I want to blow up our minor leagues to get him, but if Wren decides to do so he still has that option.

I, for one, am happy with a deal. It's a typical trade from strength to shore up a weakness and we do so without giving up anything more than true "prospects".

The NFC South Is Not As Good As It Seems

2008-11-26T22:05:00.003-05:00

And that includes the Falcons. I have come to the conclusion (and no I don't have stats to back this up) that the teams that are 10-6 are just as good as the teams that are 6-10 and everyone in between. These are the teams that are dangerous every Sunday, but they have serious flaws. Even if they make the playoffs, they are not a real title contender. The difference between these teams? A lucky break here or there, a slightly better coach, an injury to a major player, or (the topic of the column) one teams' schedule is easier than the other.

Here are the standings for the NFC South:
Carolina is 8-3
Tampa Bay is 8-3
Atlanta is 7-4
New Orleans is 6-5
All of the teams have winning records, but all of the teams are also imminently beatable. None of them scream "Title Contender." Are Tampa and Carolina really better than New England or Indy? Who would you rather put money on to win the Super Bowl?

So why are the records of the NFC South so good? We all get to play Detroit, Kansas City, and Oakland, who have a combined 4 wins. So that's three guaranteed wins right there. Delhomme threw 4 picks and a total of 72 yards against Oakland, AND THEY STILL WON! Then you throw in the underachieving Chargers, the defensive sieve that is Denver, and the rest of the NFC North (Bears, Packers, and Vikings) who are just average teams, and you have a recipe for a winning season if you have a decent team.

Now I'm not saying that Atlanta's good play this season is a mirage created by playing inferior competition. Far from it. I'm just saying I don't know if we're really 7-4 good. A few tweaks in the schedule and I could see us being 5-6 or even 4-7, which, considering my expectations coming into the season, I would still consider a rousing success. So don't buy Super Bowl tickets... until next season.

Too Early To Evaluate

2008-11-25T16:22:00.004-05:00

But I enjoy a bit of hyperbole from time to time.

Comrade Dmitroff = Genius

Below is a 2008 draft summary for the Falcons with some comments by me. Before that, I'd like to note that pundits were basically wetting themselves after the Giants got contributions from just about their entire draft class of 2007 during last year's super bowl run. Perhaps the Falcons should go ahead and start covering their furniture with plastic? I hope so...

1st Round (No. 3 overall)
QB Matt Ryan (Boston College)

Not really much to be said that hasn't been said already. Being a Falcons fan my entire life, I've never "watched a QB grow" or even knew what that meant. The change in Matt is appreciable and noticeable on a week to week basis and it really excites me to think what can be accomplished down the road as long as he stays healthy and we surround him with quality players.

1st Round (No. 21 overall)+
T Sam Baker (USC)

Was having a stellar season at LT until injuries derailed him. A couple of concussions and a busted hip have kept him out half the season. Hopefully he'll be back because the inability to run behind Weiner could be a real weakness against good defenses. Good thing there is only one of those left on the schedule.

2nd Round (No. 37 overall)
LB Curtis Lofton (Oklahoma)

If Ryan is "Matty Ice", I vote for calling Lofton "The Beast". We can have an all crappy beer nicknamed team. Not sure who gets to be called Schlitz, OE, and/or PBR. Lofton is a pretty sure tackler and doesn't seem to get out of position on many occassions. We haven't seen much of his pass rush ability as we tend to send OKB (Old Keith Brooking) on blitzes for some reason. Continued development should make him and Boley and impressive force.

3rd Round (No. 68 overall)
CB Chevis Jackson (LSU)

Corners typically develop slowly as the athleticism advantage they once had in college is gone and they have to learn how to cover. That said, Jackson has been solid in nickel and dime situations and I have rarely seen him burnt deep (DHalled as I like to call it).

3rd Round (No. 84 overall)#
WR Harry Douglas (Louisville)

He and Jenkins are the perfect complements to Rowdy Roddy White. Roddy is the "guy" defenses have to key on. Jenkins makes the tough catches and can go up for the ball. And Harry Douglas is the squirrely guy that gets open and squirts for extra yards when you need him to. Combine that with punt return ability and creative use in the run game and he can be a game changer.

3rd Round (No. 98 overall)~
S Thomas DeCoud (California)

With the surprising (to me) play of Erik Coleman, we haven't gotten to see much of DeCoud. He made big plays on special teams last week and I have no doubt he is learning a lot under the tutelage of Lawyer Milloy.

5th Round (No. 138 overall)
LB Robert James (Arizona State)

I haven't seen or heard from this guy all year. I'm too lazy to check the Falcons roster. Our first miss. And it's in the 5th round. I'm okay with that.

5th Round (No. 154 overall)%
DE Kroy Bierman (Montana)

Has been part of the regular rotation at DE all season and has gotten QB pressure on numerous occassions. A situational pass rusher, but it gives Abraham a breather and that's a great thing.

6th Round (No. 172 overall)
RB Thomas Brown (Georgia)

Blew out his knee in pre-season. I still have high hopes for him as a replacement for Norwood when Norwood moves on (which he will) to a starting job. Can excel as a 3rd down back and a receiver and return punts and kicks.

7th Round (No. 212 overall)
CB Wilrey Fontenot (Arizona)

Not on the active roster. How dare you screw up our 7th round pick, GM!

7th Round (No. 232 overall)
TE Keith Zinger (LSU)

I am convinced we drafted him for name only.

Summary:

When you pick at the top of the draft you have to make the most out of it. Getting a pro-bowl caliber QB, a starting LT, LB, WR and depth at CB, DE, and S is about as much as you can ask of a new GM coming in to a horrible mess.

Flip on the Free Throw Line

2008-11-21T16:26:00.003-05:00

I don't want Flip taking 20 shots a game.

I don't want Flip to play more than 20 minutes a game.

I don't want Flip to be on the floor with Bibby.

I don't want Flip to guard anyone good.

I don't want Flip to influence our young players (especially Law).

I do, however, want Flip to be on the floor at the end of the game when we have a lead. The man does not feel pressure. I was comfortable having him at the free throw line on Wednesday against the Wizards to ice the game. To me, he's the equivalent of Sam Cassell the last couple of years. Too much confidence, which isn't a horrible thing when the game is on the line.

Lack of Defense

2008-11-21T13:38:00.002-05:00

So I was going to write separate articles about the struggles of the Falcons and Hawks, but then I realized their problems were exactly the same: no defense, especially in late game situations.

First, let's start with the Falcons. The Broncos get the ball with 10:36 remaining in the fourth quarter starting on their own 17 yard line down by three. They proceeded to march down the field for a touchdown with relative ease despite playing with two green tackles (Clady is a rookie, Harris is a second-year guy). Granted the Falcons are a good example of young players coming through, but still. A crucial drive in the fourth quarter and the Broncos only see 2 third downs? One of them at the 9 yard line? That's rough...

The main culprit for this is an utter lack of a pass rush outside of Abraham. And since Abraham got banged up earlier in the game, Atlanta's got dominated on the line. The Broncos were rushing effectively despite signing running backs off the street, and Cutler had way too much time to sit in the pocket and wait for a receiver to get open. Our secondary, which is improving, can't defend receivers for that long, especially when playing against talented receivers like Brandon Marshall. So it's time for Jamaal Anderson to wake up and start playing like the defensive end he resembles and will see this week: Julius Peppers. (Seriously, compare! Around the same height, weight, build, facial hair, hair cut... he needs to channel his inner Peppers)

As for the Hawks, I think the main culprits are injuries and poor subbing. Since Josh went out the Hawks' defense has suffered as evidenced by surrendering 108 points to Chicago, 103 to Boston, 115 and 119 to New Jersey, and 113 to Indiana. Additionally Horford has missed the last couple of games so our interior defense at key times consisted of Zaza and Marvin, neither of which can block of shot to save their life (though they rebounded well against Washington, but their big men aren't any good). Combine this with the fact that Woody is running out the combo of Bibby and Flip at the same time and you have a recipe for disaster. The guards on the perimeter can't keep their man in front of them (still have nightmares of Devin Harris), and our bigs can't clean up the mess when they get into the paint.

Getting Horford and Josh back will obviously alleviate some of these problems, but Woody has to realize that he really shouldn't play Flip and Bibby together for long stretches of time. Even with Horford or Josh in there, you're putting so much pressure on them that you have the potential for them to rack up quick fouls or force them to leave their man open for easy dishes or easy rebounds. So unless we're going up against a team with inept guards, Woody needs to stagger Flip and Bibby and mix in Mo Evans more. He can still extend the D, but he can also play D.

But, unlike last year, I feel like these Atlanta teams can actually make adjustments to correct these problems. So they feel more like speed bumps rather than the mountains of last year. Nice feeling...

Gazing Into My Crystal Balls

2008-11-18T15:16:00.004-05:00

We're 6-4* today

I've been busy with some other things going on in real life so D has been kind enough to do most of the posting lately. I got the message that "Dave the Falconer" was seeking our predictions and I had every intention of writing this up before the Broncos game. I really thought we should have and could have won that game and would have predicted so. Looking back it seems like the major problem was that our line wasn't able to make many holes against the Broncos front and the left side in particular behind aging Todd Weiner and already aged Wayne Gandy was subpar. Ryan was pressured more by the Broncos d-line and while I'd like to give them credit, I still credit our poor play more than I can credite excessive skill on their part. So what does the rest of the season hold for us?

vs. Carolina: WIN
Here's why: Despite the poor play of the line last week, we are a better team on the road. In some ways, Ryan facing some heat and making a few bad decisions is a good thing. You develop in any sport by playing against better competitors and learning from mistakes. Last time Ryan had a bad game he followed it up with a great game. Granted Carolina won't play like Kansas City, but the teams always have a little more juice for a division rival. Factor in the home crowd, the close margin last time (the game wasn't out of hand til late), and Ryan's development and I think we can squeak out a win on Elam's leg.

at San Diego: WIN
Here's Why: A lot of people seem to think we'll lose this game. I don't get it. As a disgruntled owner of LT, I can tell you he isn't the same this year. It hasn't mattered which defense he has been going against, he's been pretty terrible. This will be the first game in a while where the opposing team doesn't have a WR that we have to worry about. Against the Chargers, I'm comfortable with our corners man to man. San Diego's defense isn't what it was with Merriman and the Falcons will follow the Oakland game plan of getting out to a decent lead and letting the other team try to claw back. This just in: Norv Turner isn't a good coach.

at New Orleans: WIN
Here's Why: We demolished them at home. Their defense is terrible, their offense is falling apart and their players are starting to blame one another. Part of our "home field advantage" is that the surface we play on is much different than grass. It'll FEEL like a home game on the field in New Orleans as their crowds aren't as loud as they were the last few years (that'll happen when you are mediocre) and we're accustomed to the "fast surface".

vs. Tampa Bay: WIN
Here's Why: Bad QB with a running game either missing players or with players coming off of injury on the road and no playmakers on the outside to stretch the field. That sounds like a recipe for a low scoring game. This will shape up to be one of those 13-7 affairs and I think the Falcons have more playmakers and a more consistent kicker. These games come down to a big play or two and a clutch kick a lot of times and I think we have both.

at Minnesota: LOSS
Here's Why: Because you can't win them all. The homer in me wanted to pick us to win this game and run the table but that's not likely to happen. This team reminds me a lot of a better version of Tampa. A mediocre QB with a great defense around him. The difference is that Minny has a playmaker and is at home. Adrian Peterson will likely control the clock for the Vikes in front of an always raucous crowd.

vs. St. Louis: WIN
Here's Why: Let me get this straight: needing a big win to stay in the playoff picture we get one of the worst teams in the league the last game of the year? You don't get to automatically put one in the win column in the NFL but this is about as close as you can get. Rams' players will be playing to finish out the season and not get hurt, coaches will have checked out knowing their fate is already sealed for the next year. And the Falcons are at home with a QB who is learning visibly every game with the playoffs on the line! We'll be up big by half and cruise on home.
That puts the Falcons at 11-5 and 4-2 in the division. The division title could turn into a mess as each team has 3 games remaining and anything can happen. Regardless, at worst we finish the season with a .500 record and a legion of suddenly mute pundits eating crow on the Ryan pick. At best, I'm right and we make the playoffs. I'm not sure how they will shake out but if we can get Arizona or an NFC North team, I'd be fairly confident.

It's a good time to be an Atlanta fan. If only Josh Smith's ankle would hurry up and heal...

*We should be 7-3 but we got jobbed by the refs in the Eagles game. This is almost indisputably the worst season in officiating ever. That's not hyperbole. They've screwed the Chargers, Falcons and $64 million dollars worth of Vegas bets. Somewhere Tim Donaghy is giggling.

Falcons Predictions

2008-11-13T14:33:00.004-05:00

Well Dave the Falconer asked for predictions of the upcoming schedule, so here it goes. In the interest of full disclosure, I made a prediction at the beginning of the season in my article "This I Believe," where I thought I was being generous in predicting 6 wins for the Falcons. I hope that prediction does not come true since that would mean the Falcons went on a 7 game losing streak. So I guess this would be a more revised prediction.

Falcons v. Broncos
Didn't we just play this team last week? Horrible defense, great passing offense, abandons the run at the drop of the hat. What's that? That was the Saints? Oh... well I'm still going to predict the same result. Falcons win in a shootout where the secondary makes just enough plays, and Turner milks the clock with his ginormous thighs.

Falcons v. Panthers
I think this game will come down run defenses. The Panthers have a pretty good one, and Peppers seems to be coming on (3 sacks and 2 forced fumbles last week). The Falcons have a good one as well, but only when Grady "Fat" Jackson plays. I'm thinking that Grady will play and the Falcons will win by a field goal. Delhomme will march the Panthers down the field with time running out, but he will either be intercepted or a pass will be defensed on fourth down to preserve the win.

Falcons at Chargers
I'm still not ready to believe that Tomlinson has fully fallen off the cliff yet. Maybe I'm just in denial. Plus by this time Ron Rivera (the new d-coordinator) will have had several weeks to get his mitts around the Chargers defense, which still has plenty of talented players. The Chargers, desperately trying to salvage their season will win by 10 points.

Falcons at New Orleans
The Saints, also trying to salvage their season of broken dreams, will be playing their hearts out. Reggie Bush, back from his injury, and Marques Colston, who looked rusty last week, will further aid Drew Brees in his quest to try and save the Saints. Unfortunately there is no one coming to aid the New Orleans defense, and Turner's titanic thighs will keep the ball out of Brees' hands. Therefore, the Falcons win running away... literally.

Falcons v. Tampa Bay
The Falcons first home loss will come to the hated Buccaneers. Honestly, now that the NFC South has been together for 6 or so seasons, I have a natural disdain for the other three teams in our division. I think that's what the head offices were going for, and it worked well in the NFC South.

Falcons at Minnesota
I don't know why, but I just can not respect the Vikings this season. I love Peterson, I love the Williams in the middle, and Jared Allen is good (don't love him though), but I just can't take them seriously with such a mess under center. Their run D scares me since Turner seems to vanish against these teams. However, I believe this game will come down to who turns the ball over the least, and I think it's a safe bet that Ryan will protect the ball better than Frerotte. Therefore, Falcons win by a field goal.

Falcons v. St. Louis
The Rams are awful. We're at home. Falcons win.

That will leave the Falcons at 11-5. And I think there is a possibility of a three way tie at the top of the NFC South. The Panthers have a tough schedule over their last 7, and I could easily see them dropping 3 games. The Bucs have a much easier schedule than the Falcons or the Panthers, but I don't think they are as good. Therefore I'm predicting a three-way tie for first in the NFC South. Wouldn't that be fun?

Man I Hate Paul Pierce

2008-11-13T10:22:00.005-05:00

Let me get something straight right off the bat: I don't hate Pierce because he hit the game-winning shot last night. Far from it. I was disappointed that the Hawks lost, and, honestly, impressed by the shot he hit. Besides, the Hawks should be blamed for even allowing Pierce that opportunity. They got the ball with 21 seconds left and should have bled the clock before driving to the basket. Then Pierce would have had a rushed shot at best. No, I don't hate Pierce for one moment.

I hate Pierce for how he plays basketball. He has the ugliest game short of Anthony Mason. I hate how he flops around the court worse than the European players.

I hate that he flails his arms and falls every which way on the offensive end, but still stares at the refs in shock when he gets called for a foul on the defensive end. He's probably trying to get the refs to call a foul in the above picture.

I hate that the refs encourage his behavior by calling fouls on defenders who are standing to the side with their arms up when Pierce flops to the side while shooting. NO ONE SHOOTS LIKE THAT! WHY ARE YOU CALLING A FOUL?!

When I texted Matt last night that I hated Pierce he responds with, "I wonder if he walks down the street and falls into people and then calls the police." In everyday life Pierce is the guy that slams on his brakes and then hops out of his car holding his neck when he gets into a fender-bender, threatening to sue.

I hate that he attempted more free throws (16) than field goals (14) last night. Let me get this straight... almost all of our players get in foul trouble, but Glen Davis is allowed to literally shove Joe at the top of the key when flashing out on a screen?

I hate that people are going to be talking about how he scored 34 points when 15 of those points came off of free throws.

I hate when people say he is "good at creating contact," and mean it as a compliment. He's a used car salesman on the court, creating something that isn't there and selling that bs to the refs. In his honor the NBA should change the rules. Even if you get your guy up the air, you have to at least attempt your normal shot to get a foul call. No falling to the side or lunging forward or backward to create contact. If the shooter literally creates the contact, then it shouldn't be a foul.

Man I hate Paul Pierce.

So Really, How Good are the Hawks?

2008-11-11T13:25:00.003-05:00

I think I like Sekou's answer the best, you're not as good as your best days and you're not as bad as your worst days. I'm sure I butchered the saying, but you get the gist of it. The Hawks are flying high at 5-0, but I think you're jumping out on a limb to say they're one of the elite teams in the East. I'm not saying the limb is going to break, but it isn't the steadiest position. So let's move back to the trunk and try to figure out what we can glean from the first 5 games.

1. The Hawks will not be awful on the road this year. Last year the Hawks barely squeaked into the playoffs mainly due to a 12-29 road record compared to a 25-16 home record. This home/road split was quite evident in their playoff series where they lost 4 games in Boston by an average margin of 25.25 points. This year, however, the Hawks already have 3 road wins (1/4 of last years total), including wins against 2 playoff teams from last year; Orlando and New Orleans. I think this trend will continue with the young players getting another year under their belt and the addition of Flip and Mo, two vets who will provide more stability on the road.

2. The Hawks bench will not be a liability. I'm not going to go as far as calling the bench an asset just yet, but we have gone from having one bench player worth anything in Childress to having several bench players that can contribute. Now we have 3-4 (depending on how you count Solo). Additionally the bench players look like they defined roles this year. Last year Woodson yanked around everyones minutes (except Childress) so they never knew when they were coming into the game, for how long, and what they're role was going to be. This year the roles are:
Flip is the bench player who can create his own offense. Mo is the wing defender who can knock down the 3. Zaza is the energy big man (18 offensive rebounds in 5 games). Even Solo has played good D off the bench (5 blocks and many more altered shots in the last two games).
Hopefully Woody will stick to his rotation and give the bench some consistency. The bench will especially help over the long haul of the season as it will keep Joe's minutes down, give us more of a chance on the second night of a back-to-back, and will help us survive the inevitable injuries.

3. The Hawks can shoot the 3. Last year it was Joe and Bibby, and before the trade for Bibby it was just Joe. This meant that opposing defenses could lock down on Joe and cheat off of everyone else. This made every offensive possession a struggle to find room to operate. This year, however, Mo (43.8%) and Flip (41.2%) joined Joe (44%) and Bibby (37.9%) in shooting well beyond the arc. Additionally Marvin, who attempted 10 3's all season last year, has hit 4-7 (57.1%) in 4 games this year. Now the Hawks can put on the floor 3-4 (if we go small) players who can consistently knock down the 3. This will spread out the floor for Josh and Horford, and, especially, make it so a defense will pay for collapsing down on Joe.

Like I said at the top, I think it's way too early to predict anything too crazy for the Hawks. At the same time, however, the fast start has made it so people won't think you're completely insane for putting the Hawks in the elite of the east.

Billy Beane is Smarter Than You

2008-11-11T08:27:00.003-05:00

I wanted to come out of my little work-induced break with an Atlanta article, but I just had to comment on the Holliday trade. In case you were asleep yesterday, the Oakland A's are acquiring the Rockies' Matt Holliday for starter Greg Smith, closer Huston Street, and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez.

That's right, for one of the top five hitters is baseball, Beane is giving up a starter who had a 4.16 ERA (even though he was pitching in Oakland), a rookie outfielder who hit .242 in 302 at-bats, and a good pitcher in the most over-rated position, who is also injury prone, closer. I would call that a heist.

You can argue that it's not that great of a deal since Holliday is on the last year of his contract and the A's will have no chance of signing him since he's a Boras client who will be asking for a contract in the neighborhood of A-Rod's. But if the A's aren't contending by June or July, what kind of prospects do you think people are going to be willing to shell out for a legitimate middle of the order bat? And if they are contending, they gave up not much for a run at the AL west, and when he leaves for free agency they will get two compensatory picks.

And that's why Beane is smarter than you...

Terrible Calls All Around

2008-10-26T22:42:00.003-04:00

When D called me with 2:00 remaining in the 4th quarter of the Falcons game, we shared the same sentiment: worst officiating call since Kent Hrbek. For the ref/ump to rule that Jennings "muffed" the punt and award possession to the Eagles with just over 2:00 left at the 40 yard line was nothing short of a travesty. I immediately compared it to the "Hochuli" call from earlier this season and D agreed. In a situation like that where you are not certain what happened, you award the ball to the recieving team and let the kicking team challenge. Even the Eagles knew that Jennings didn't touch the ball (as you can tell from the gunner pulling up after he corralls the punt). Instead, the officials (who were at least 20 yards away from the play) determined that the ball somehow grazed Jennings and that the punt was "muffed". That was the determining factor of the game and it is amazing me that it is not getting more coverage right now. I've watched at least 6 wrap up shows and no one has actually shown the play itself. They are simply alluding to a "muffed punt by Atlanta" and moving on. Collusion from the NFL for not wanting MORE of their terrible officiating broadcast.

And what is the Falcons recourse? Likely the same as the Chargers. Be pissed off at the officials and get an "I'm sorry" from the NFL? It's pathetic. I've long wondered why the NFL doesn't adopt the collegiate method for review. There is already a review committee in the booth all game anyhow, why not put them to work and have them able to stop play and review things themselves. You still can have a challenge or two to work with at your discretion with the same loss of timeout. It's asinine to penalize a coach for good clock management by removing the ability to dispute an egregious call from backwoods retarded officials. Where is the harm? Hell, if it extends the game 15 minutes it means more revenue dollars from advertising. I'm failing to see the issue. Except that it could potentially point out the unending amateurism that is "professional" officiating.

If there was such a replay system in place here is what would have happened in the Falcons/Eagles game. Call would have been made correctly (overturned by replay) and Ryan would have had the ball at the Falcons 40 with over 2:00 to work with against a pass defense that had seen their best CB and S miss time throughout the game due to injury (Samuel and Dawkins both left the field at different times for injuries). Ryan would likely have worked the Falcons down and gotten in position to score the go ahead TD with minimal time remaining.

Instead: craptastic call and a disheartened defense (who had forced the Eagles off the field with a stellar effort before the punt) gives up an immediate Westbrook icing TD. It's miserable to watch a valiant effort by an inferior but great hearted team go in vain due to errors in judgement by impartial parties.

Then again, this all could have been avoided if Mularkey hadn't decided to throw the fade to Roddy instead of pounding the ball in with Turner from the 2. Any run call would have been better. Of all the things Roddy is good at, jump balls isn't one of them. He's quick, elusive, fast, and has pretty good hands. But he is neither tall nor a good leaper and I'm yet to see him develop the ability to body his way into position and fight for a ball in the air. At the goal line you pound the ball as the pass defense has to defend much less space and the options for a QB are terribly limited and predictable. From inside the 3 you are relegated to fades, slot slants (if the LBs are out of the middle), and slot outs (if you have the TE covered by a LB). The better options are to pound the rock with your big back or FB, spread the formation and run the QB, or try a "flip 90" (RB to the outside). I would have preferred to see the flip to Norwood or Turner running behind Ovie.

Good thing the UGA depantsing of LSU had my spirits high and I'm packing for Florida or I'd have too much time to stew on this crapfest.

To Peavy or Not to Peavy

2008-10-23T08:28:00.004-04:00

So what could awaken my interest in baseball after the Braves season that could have been, the Falcons having a winning record, and the Hawks season about the start? No, not the Red Sox losing to the Rays (though that was awesome! How great was it to hear this quote, "And the Boston season rides on pinch-hitter Jed Lowrie"? The guy batted .207 in the playoffs, now allegedly had a hurt wrist, and the Red Sox season rested on his shoulders? Cracked me up.) No, the thing that peaked my interest was off season rumors. Where you have no clue what you're team might end up doing... especially with the Braves and how they keep everything quiet.

So the new and exciting rumor is that we're the leading candidate to trade for Jake Peavy. He's only 27, he's got a Cy Young award, and he grew up a Braves fan in Alabama... what's not to like?

Well several people have answered that question. Some people are worried that Peavy's jerky motion is a recipe for a major arm injury. Also that the Padres willingness to deal their ace, who has a reasonable contract ($11 million in 2009, $15 million in 2010, $16 million in 2011, $17 million in 2012 and a $22 million option ($4 million buyout) for 2013), is a little disconcerting. Additionally, many people don't want to have to give up Tommy Hanson, our top pitching prospect, in the trade. Hanson is a 22 year old fireballer with the mentality of a bulldog... whatever that means, who just won the Arizona Fall League player of the week by winning both his starts while allowing only one hit over 6.2 innings pitched. In his most recent start last Saturday, October 18, Hanson struck out eight of the first nine hitters.

I say go for Peavy. Several of our key players (Chipper, Smoltz, Glavine) are getting old, and won't have too many more productive seasons. Peavy has avoided any major injury so far with his motion, so what's to say that he won't continue that trend. Many people think Sabathia's arms should have fallen off years ago... some people just defy the trends. If we can keep Hanson and still trade for Peavy, great. But I think several teams learned last year that a proven star is much more valuable than a couple of potential stars. The Yankees missed out on Johan Santana because they were unwilling to part with Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. Here's their stats for last season respectively: 0-4 6.62 era in 8 starts and 0-4 with a 8.17 era in 9 starts. Boston missed out because they didn't want to trade their prospects, and they certainly could have used another starter in the playoffs.

Now I know that Hanson won't necessarily turn out as a bust, and Hughes and Kennedy might still blossom, but it shows the danger of valuing prospects over a certified ace. But I'm not convinced the Padres will trade Peavy without a deal that blows them away. They can still control him for four seasons with a reasonable salary so they're not just going to give him away. And I don't think the Braves are going to sell the farm for him.

So I think this is just an interesting rumor for bloggers to bat around for a month or so before it dies off and the Braves make some other trade or signing that no one saw coming. It's pretty much their MO at this point. I say Hudson convinces Mulder to sign with the Braves for cheap.

He has Seen the Light

2008-10-17T15:34:00.003-04:00

These quotes from an ESPN interview will be a comfort for everyone who saw Arthur Blank as a meddling owner (which is pretty much everyone):

"I'm interested in building a long-term winning organization. There are some teams that have done that in the NFL and had success over time and we've studied those organizations and they have certain characteristics. One is that they keep their coaching staff together over a long period of time and they keep their general manager in place. They have a sense of patience about building their team and they stay the course of their plan."

"My role is to be a cheerleader for them and make sure Mike [Smith] and Thomas [Dimitroff] have the resources they need."

I think I speak for everyone when I say, THANK GOD! The Falcons organization has a chance!

Don't get me wrong, I've always had a soft spot for Blank, especially after the Rankin Smith line of asleep at the wheel owners. But he was getting a little too buddy-buddy with the players. Maybe he was taking the lead from Mora. But I think he's got it now!

Still Urging Patience

2008-10-13T12:49:00.009-04:00

Well that prediction was more accurate than I could have ever... well... predicted. And today, due to the dramatic end of the game, the Falcons are getting more national attention than the rest of the season combined. This would be a time where our expectations as Falcons fans could ran away from us, especially with a pretty much guaranteed win over the lifeless "Bye Week." I, however, will continue to extol the virtue of patience.

If you watched the game, you know the Falcons should have blown out the Bears. The end of the game should have come with Matty Ice (a now well-deserved nickname) taking a knee rather than Elam attempting a 48 yd field goal. It's a problem when you look at the box score and see "Elam - 29 yd field goal. Elam - 32 yd field goal." And he missed a 33 yd field goal. We got an 85 yd return from Norwood in the 4th quarter and our drive looked like this: Turner runs for -2 yards, Turner runs for 2 yards, Turner runs for 2 yards, missed field goal. Granted the aforementioned drive happened in the fourth quarter when we were trying to run out the clock, and granted the Bears are still a very good defensive team, but those are red zone (or near enough) opportunities the Falcons cannot afford to squander against good teams. It didn't kill them Sunday against an anemic Bears team, but it will later on.

On the bright side the close score belies the fact that the Falcons dominated a solid Bears team that was hot coming into this game. Ryan proved, for one game at least, that he can burn a team if they continuously stack the box. I love the offensive game that Mularkey called. He put his trust in Ryan by allowing him to throw 30 times against a battered Bears secondary, but he didn't pull a Gruden and go completely pass wacky. He ran the ball 28 times to ensure that the Bears had to continually worry about Turner going off.

But now it's time for the stat that continues to blow my mind, and no one in their right mind would have suggested at the beginning of the season. It's so mind-blowing, I just might make it a reoccurring section at the end of Falcons articles. I'm just going to end on it to give it plenty of room to sink in and let you realize just how much it explains all the success the Falcons are having...

Games: 6
Sacks Allowed: 7

More Falcons Predictions

2008-10-10T10:55:00.002-04:00

So I was 1-1 with my last set of predictions. I nailed the Panthers game, but I didn't account for the injuries to the Packers secondary (Harris and Bigby), the injury to Rodgers, and the growth of Matt Ryan for the Packers game. I was actually going to write last week predicting that the Falcons would beat the Packers, but I didn't have time... I swear I was!

This week we are playing the Bears, and our offense will not fare quite as well. The Bears run defense is stouter than the Packers, and our two losses have come against teams that can stop the run. The only way the Falcons can win this game is if Ryan continues to look good in the passing game. Luckily Roddy White getting KO'ed in practice wasn't that serious. Also Mularkey needs to make sure he mixes in some deep routes to stretch the defense. In our two losses, the Bucs and the Panthers were stacking the box, but Ryan was still trying to throw short routes. Ryan has to take several shots down the field, otherwise Turner will be hit behind or at the line of scrimmage every single time.

Defensively I'm not too concerned. Other then Devin Hester, there are no playmakers on the Bears offense. Everything is predicated on not turning the ball over. Forte (Thomas Jones 2.0) is a good, solid back, but he's not going to break any huge runs. He's only averaging 3.6 ypc. Similarly, Orton doesn't have the throws or the receivers to make the big throws as evidenced by his 7.1 ypa average. So as long as we play good special teams, take note of when Hester lines up as a receiver, and force a turnover or two, then the Bears won't score more than 20 points.

Well I was going to predict that the Falcons would lose their first home game, but I just can't bring myself to do it. I'm going with the Falcons winning on a Jason Elam field goal after Matty Ice's first 2 minute drill with the game on the line.

The Fro That Is No Mo

2008-10-09T16:08:00.003-04:00

Because (a) Hawks season is around the corner and I am quite ready for basketball season and (b) I’m tired of staring at my horribly errant projection regarding the Crimson "Hang on while we wait for the officials to hand out another 60 yards of terrible penalties" Tide game: It’s time for some Hawks Tawk. Oh yeah, I just did that.

The loss of Josh Childress as he goes on his National Lampoon’s European Vacation tour won’t be as significant as most pundits seem to think. While it is true that Childress was vital as back up PG/SG/SF and even PF at times and was the only strong bench player, his presence on the court also hindered things at times. Here is how the team looked with him on the floor at various positions depending upon whom he was replacing:

At PG: Childress, Joe, Marvin, Josh Smith, Al. While a capable ball-handler, he was never a threat to score and didn’t have the passing ability to be a facilitator. Lacking any real shot, the defense could load up on Joe and clog the passing lanes.
At SG: Bibby, Childress, Marvin, JS, Al. While having a seasoned PG on the court to distribute the ball will help for offensive movement, with no great outside shooters on the court (especially if Bibby was riding a cold-streak), the defense could collapse down low and force low percentage jumpers from Bibby, Marvin, and JS.
At SF: Bibby, Joe, Childress, JS, Al. Probably the best position for him in relation to keeping spacing for the others. He can cut and dive to the basket for easy buckets, but doesn’t really have the strength to finish in traffic. Relies more on angles and with JS and Al down low struggles to find lanes. One option is to pull JS out a little but that would leave JS open for ill-advised jumpers.
At PF: Bibby, Joe, Marvin, Childress, Al. Besides getting abused on the defensive end, Childress doesn’t have the frame to back people down or the height to finish over them. Most of the time, this lineup would push Marvin into the 4 where he wasn’t suited yet.

That isn’t to say that the team won’t miss him. He was our most intelligent player and a great on-ball defender adept at cleaning up errant shots. However, the development of Acie Law (who got a bad rap last year while trying to play injured) and Horford (who will be stronger down low after a season of experience) combined with the maturation of Marvin and JS will create a stronger starting 5 with a more adept backup PG. The additions of Flip Murray to solidify the PG rotation (and Speedy if he actually plays), Mo Evans as a capable bench scorer, and Randolph Morris to give the front lines some beef when ZaZa goes on a fouling spree should create a deeper bench. Personally I’d rather have 2-3 good bench players rather than 1 great one, which is what I think we did. It enables the team more flexibility and gives the roster more places to turn when injuries and tired-ness come along.

I also wouldn’t underestimate ‘Super’ Mario West. He brings the same energy and intelligence that Childress brought and with more playing time could prove to be a very valuable asset off the bench for the Hawks.

The Schedule Begins

2008-09-25T10:45:00.002-04:00

There haven't been any posts about the Dawgs so far for a couple of reasons. The first is that we had yet to encounter what I could call a serious enough challenge to merit posting. The schedule thus far has required only that we play with mediocrity to win. We've played to that level or better so far and head in to our actual schedule 4-0 and are facing real challenges for the first time. The second reason is that there is no glory in beating who you should beat. You simply throw it in the W column and move on.

So Saturday our schedule begins in earnest. We face an overly cocky Alabama team on Saturday in the Classic City.

Here is why I'm not really that worried about the Crimson Hefelumps.

(a) We beat this same squad last year in OT at their place at night on ESPN

(b) We've improved on both sides of the ball particularly at WR, LB, DB since we last played them.

(d) We will be jacked up from playing a night game at home

(e) We will be jacked up because of the Blackout

(f) We will be jacked up because their coaches are idiots and mocked our Blackout

(g) They can't throw the ball and we can stop the run

(h) Our game plan last year was to slip/screen/bomb them and it worked modestly. With an obviously matured MoMass and super-frosh AJ Green along with a much smarter and developed QB we're going to take chunks of yardage at a time.

(i) Saban will try to change up and Knowshon goes wild in the 2nd half.

(j) JPW will choke and throw two easy picks. It's just what he does.

(k) I was able to compile 10 reasons why I'm not worried without thinking too hard...

What Have We Learned After 3 Weeks?

2008-09-22T20:54:00.003-04:00

The Falcons, much to the chagrin of almost everyone, are 2-1 after 3 weeks. Normally, this would lead to some measure of optimism, but the two wins have come against two 0-3 teams (Lions and Chiefs) who have looked absolutely awful so far. I think a better measure of how good a team we are comes from contrasting our wins to our one loss.

Lesson One: If we can consistently run the ball, we can put up some points. In the two games Turner went over 100 yards, we scored over 30 points. In the game he did not reach 100 yards, we only scored 9 points.

Lesson Two: Our success is inversely related to the number of pass attempts Matt Ryan has. In the two wins, under 20 attempts. In the one loss, 33 attempts. That doesn't mean that Ryan is awful, but he's not at the point in his career that he can beat a team without a good running game. He's a rookie... what can you expect?

Lesson Three: Our secondary isn't nearly as bad as I expected. Kitna only got numbers because they were down early and had to abandon the run. Griese didn't really do anything. And we dominated Thigpen. Now those three QBs aren't anywhere close to being considered elite, but they have still equipped themselves well. I don't think they'll get absolutely abused by the better QBs of the league.

Lesson Four: Our run D needs Grady "Fat" Jackson. We got killed by the Tampa running game with Jackson injured, and they were only throwing Dunn and Earnest Graham out there. With Jackson in the lineup for the two wins, we were able to contain the running game either completely (Lions) or until we had a large lead (Chiefs).

Lesson Five: It's good to be home.

So the question remains, based on these lessons, how will the Falcons do over the next few weeks? Answer: We're going to lose the next three weeks.

We're on the road for the first two games. Against the Panthers, they are going to put 8-9 guys in the box, stuff the run, and force Ryan to beat them; which he won't be able to. Against the Packers, we will be able to run the ball, but, while our secondary is decent, we don't have enough quality cornerbacks to keep up with the 3-4 wide receivers sets of the Packers. Finally we will be at home against the Bears, but they are only giving up 71.3 rushing yards per game. I mean Tampa abandoned the run and had Griese throw 67 times this past week against the Bears. We have no chance to win if Ryan has to throw 67 times.

So everyone get ready for three losses and three posts about how Ryan is learning from the losses.

Well That's Good News

2008-09-17T20:04:00.003-04:00

On Sunday the Falcons will be taking on the mighty Kansas City Chiefs whose last victory was October 21, 2007.

Oh, but it gets better!

It was announced yesterday that the Chiefs will be starting 2nd-year quarterback Tyler Thigpen. Everybody join me in saying, "Who?" That's right! THE Tyler Thigpen from football powerhouse Coastal Carolina! "Which Carolina?" you ask. Easy! The one with the coast!

This start is notable because Matt Ryan will officially have his first NFL start in which he is the more accomplished passer. Here's the breakdown on career stats:

Ryan 22-46 for 319 yards, 1 td, 2 ints for a rousing 60.0 passer rating.
Thigpen 16-39 for 192 yards, 1 td, 2 ints for a robust 44.0 passer rating.

That's right folks, it's going to be a shoot out of epic proportions! Set your TIVO now!

Vince Young Loses Mobility Due to Aching Vagina

2008-09-10T12:57:00.002-04:00

According to ESPN , Vince Young is hurting inside and out and it's making him feel sad and he doesn't want to play anymore. Apparently when the going gets tough, VY gets going. It must be tough to play QB and have to be accountable for team leadership, knowing the playbook, scouting teams, and not turning the ball over twice as much as you score. I'm sure he longs to go back to UT where he could just run around because he was way more athletic than 80% of the people he was playing against.

The Titans, for their part, are pretending that they care. I'm sure it has more to do with them selecting him so high in the draft than it does him actually being needed on the field. After all, Kerry Collins led them to a win this past weekend once VY's Bajingo started bleeding.

This story comes after he insinuated he was ready to retire in the spring. It's pretty telling that he's a little bitch when reporters are interviewing his mom about his mental state. To hell with the pocket protection, he needs a womb.

Apparently He Has Docs on the Bajingo Hall

2008-09-08T15:28:00.005-04:00

From Peter King's MMQB:

"I tried to apologize to him,'' Bernard Pollard said over the phone from Foxboro. "But I'm not sure he heard me. He was screaming.''

If you watched even 30 seconds of sports coverage yesterday you probably are aware the Pollard accidentally rolled up on Tom (Jan) Brady's knee and Brady is likely out for the year with a torn ACL. Instead of understanding he plays a violent and physical sport, however, Brady was determined to prove to the world that his time in the spotlight has made him a little bitch.

When Trent Green got KFO (knocked the f- out) last season he didn't blame the other player. Every week a lineman goes down with an injury like this and no one bats their eyes. Reporters say "it's a part of the game" and the players agree. Unless you are Brady. Then you should get to wear a green jersey and never be hit.

Pollard went on to say:" It was an accident. It's tough. It's football. I'm sorry it happened, obviously. I can't do anything but apologize to him."

He could have said "tough shit, that has happened to just about every player ever. I guess he didn't learn what happens on the field while riding the bench at Michigan. Ask Rodney Harrison how often he's done it to other players, then get back to me." But he didn't. That makes him a nice guy in my book.

We should all thank Brady who has proven that Boston sports are the new New York sports. Congratulations, you're whiny, petulant, little bitches. You earned it!

re: the image. it's a picture of a little cat and he's done for the night! look at that visual metaphor!

Must... Contain... Optimism...

2008-09-08T14:37:00.004-04:00

In case you missed it, the Falcons played better than anyone could have imagined. The offensive line was dominant, Turner could not be tackled, Ryan got a TD on his first throw, and Abraham got three sacks (6 ball).
But the wild amounts of optimism stemming from this victory have to be tempered by the fact that the Lions defense is AWFUL.

I can guarantee our o-line will not be that dominant all year long. But if they play half as well as they did on Sunday, I think we should be fine and Ryan will make it through the year in one piece.

Relatedly, I can also guarantee that our running game will not gain over 300 yards every week. I think Turner and Norwood will be great, but not that great. The Mikes (Smith and Mularky), however, know that our best chance at winning is through the running game, so they will be feeding those two guys the rock again and again. It was good to see an offensive coordinator that knew how to effectively use two running backs, however, after seeing Norwood languish on the sideline last year.

Finally, in this logical string, with the running game not able to churn out 300 yards, Ryan will not be able to get away with just 13 pass attempts. I'm glad that he got his first TD out of the way, but overall Ryan looked like a rookie QB. He was very conservative in his reads, most of the time looking to dump it off. He had several passes that were off the mark, including one that was tipped up by his receiver and should have been picked off. Any significant third down was either picked up by our running game or wasn't picked up at all. Our offense will struggle when Ryan has to throw more. That's just the reality of a rookie QB starting.

I was most surprised though that our secondary held up pretty well. Granted they were playing from ahead the entire game and could sit back in a soft zone, but they covered and tackled one of the most athletically gifted pair of receivers in the game in Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams. One note from Williams' TD catch in the corner of the endzone at the end of the first half. Since Grimes is so short he either needs to pull a Darrell Green (hit the ball out of his hands on the way down) or just shove him out of bounds. The NFL killed the "force-out" rule, so Grimes should have just shoved Williams once he touched the ball. No way he would have landed in bounds.

Find Something Better To Do On Sunday

2008-09-04T11:32:00.003-04:00

Because the Falcons probably won't be on TV. According to Sporting News, the Falcons are scrambling to avoid blacking out the game by lowering ticket prices. I'm betting this won't be enough to entice enough people to go to the game. So either listen to it on radio, go to the local bar, or make alternate plans. Or I guess you could go spend $35 per ticket plus parking and food to go watch a craptastic game.

2008-08-29T10:47:00.003-04:00

From Jason Stark @ ESPN:

One more time: Meanwhile, friends of John Smoltz and Tom Glavine continue to report that both want to return to Atlanta next year for low-guarantee, incentive-packed deals as long as it's even remotely possible for them to pitch. In part, it's because they feel remorse for collecting $22 million this year and contributing just five wins and 18 starts. But in part it's also because these guys are such good friends, they feel as if they were cheated out of one last season of playing with each other. And they'd love a mulligan, in more ways than one. "If they want to come back, and you're the Braves," one NL executive said, "I don't know how you would say no."

That is wonderful news. So not only does it look like the braves will have a little cash to play with (due to the ending of the contracts of Smoltz, Hampton, Glavine, Tex, and Kotsay as well as the insurance payments on Hudson's contract), we will likely have the chance to bring several of those pitchers back at significantly reduced salary. I wouldn't discount the notion of Hampton doing the same. He seems like a reasonable fellow by all accounts and has been pitching fairly well (8 IP 3 ER his last start).

Perhaps we can get all three back next year for a total of $15-20 million (which would be 17-22 million less than this year). This would give us added pitching depth which could allow us to bring along the Medlens, Hansons, and Osunas of the minor leagues a little slower.

Here's to hope!

"This I Believe" Falcons Preview

2008-08-27T15:21:00.005-04:00

I'm excited about the Falcons season. No joke here, I'm actually excited. Of course I love watching young, rebuilding teams. Something about looking at all the potential and seeing it gradually fall into place just makes me want to watch a team more than an aging, average one that will win 7-9 games.

On offense, I believe the biggest question mark will not be Ryan, but rather our offensive line.
I believe, however, if they are able to make some holes for Turner and Norwood, and if they are able to keep Matt Ryan in one piece, then the Falcons offense could surprise some people.

I believe those are some big ifs...

I believe that Matt Ryan will have an average statistical year, but he will make leaps and bounds in becoming an NFL QB and, more importantly, he will further solidify his status as a leader of the offense. He's already got his receivers pointing at him after they catch scores.

I believe that the combo of Turner and Norwood will gash defenses for close to 2,000 yards, and Turner especially will take a ton of pressure off of Ryan.

I believe that our receivers will continue to mature, led by Roddy White who will be noted more for his stats this year rather than his choice of uniform accessories.

I believe that no one in our secondary could start for any other team.

On that note, I believe that our secondary will give up a ton a big passing plays, but they will improve as the year goes on.

I believe that we could get a good pass rush from DEs Anderson and Abraham if Abraham stays healthy for 16 games.

I believe Abraham will get hurt.

I believe our linebacking core is deep and talented, and that Boley and Brooking will be able to protect whichever middle linebacker plays between Taylor and Lofton.

I believe resigning Grady "Fat" Jackson (note: not his real nickname) was one of the smartest offseason moves for the Falcons.

I believe that signing Jason Elam was another great move this offseason as he will win 2-3 games for a Falcons team that will grind out every game and every possession they have.

I believe the Eagles (if McNabb is healthy) and the Chargers are the only teams that scare me on the Falcons schedule.

I believe the Falcons will win 6 games.

This I believe.

Pleasant Distraction

2008-08-22T13:35:00.002-04:00

The riveting run of Team USA in Commiejing is coming to an end. The only really compelling event remaining is the "Redeem Team" (edit: I hate that name, it sounds stupid) going to Gold. Phelps' run is complete (and still damn amazing), the gymnasts medaled all over the place, beach volleyball took Gold in mens and womens for the first time ever at the same games. The closing ceremonies are Sunday. USA will likely celebrate it's "win" in the medal standings (whatever that means) and we will be forced to go back to watching our normal sports.

That's where the trouble comes in. We're left with a week of braves (they get lowercase letters for the rest of the season if I can remember to do so) before college football starts up (and even then it's only non-compelling blowouts for the first two weeks). Really we are 2-3 weeks away from anything worth getting excited about and that is boring. But since I still have sports on my brain, here are a few thoughts for the next couple of weeks:

The braves should rest Jurrjens the rest of the season. He's never pitched this many innings and there is no reason to wear his arm down now. He's a good pitcher now and could be a great one in 2 years. Let's not ruin that.

Similarly, bring up prospects like Anderson (riding a 26 game hit streak), Hanson, B. Jones, even Schafer. These guys need to get a feel for the league and there's no better way to do that than in low pressure situations. And they can't be worse in the field than Infante was in left last night.

I like the decision to give Matt Ryan plenty of time. He's not the typical rookie QB that will be phased by a weak O-Line and a steady stream of defenders in his face. He got used to that at BC.

I wish the Falcons would give Shockley some time with the 1st or 2nd string offense in a game. He's on the edge of the roster because he's behind the worst 3rd stringers in the league while Harrington and Redman get the benefit of having at least NFL level bench players around them.

While losing your left tackle like UGA did with Sturdivant stinks, I'd much rather lose him pre-season than mid-season. It's a lot easier for the coaches to adjust and get people in positions to succeed if you have a game or two to work the kinks out.

The buzz around Stafford is that he may go pro after this season. I doubt that. By coincidence I ate dinner across from him this week and he seems to enjoy the low-key life and relaxing with his friends. Some people have an air of superiority and you can just tell they want to move on. He just seemed like a good old boy happy to be hanging out with his friends. I may just be overly optimistic.

Relatedly, our waitress was an idiot. Besides screwing up our order twice, she (while being a college student and waitress in Athens) had no idea she was waiting on Matt Stafford. After he left she commented "Oh my God! Do you know I just served the #1 QB in the nation." My first thought was to discuss whether or not he is the #1 QB, but my second was to hit her on the head with a pizza box. I went with neither. Occasionally, I'm kind.

It's too early and the anger still too recent to talk about the Hawks.

The Braves are kinda Depressing

2008-08-13T16:15:00.003-04:00

So I got a message from Matt today that read, "Braves are being one-hit by Jason Marquis," and I don't know what was sadder. The fact that the Braves were indeed being one-hit by Jason Marquis through 4 innings, or that I didn't care.
At this point, as a fan, I've mailed in this Braves season. They simply don't have the horses to make any sort of run at the playoffs, and even if they did, I would fully expect the hottest player to come down with some season ending injury. That's just the sort of season we've had.
Our top two starters (Smoltz and Hudson) are out for a while, maybe forever for Smoltz. Glavine went on the DL for the first time in his 21 year career. Our top three relievers from last year (Soriano, Gonzalez, and Moylan) all missed significant amounts of time. Franceour stunk up the joint at the plate. Due to all of the above, we then traded Tex. And to top it all off the rock in the announcing booth, Skip Carey, died, may he rest in peace. I don't know if anything else can go wrong.
Therefore I have checked out of the Braves season. Someone tell me when I can start talking about offseason trades.

SIGN HIM ALREADY!!!

2008-08-07T16:43:00.004-04:00

This is maddening.
The Hawks finish the season on a high note: pushing the champions further than anyone thought possible, establishing an actual home court advantage, and all with an incredibly young core of players. And how do the Hawks celebrate the off season?
By being the only team that can't keep their non-European player from leaving the country. (Still love you Chill)
By low balling their second best player; a young player who craved attention and praise (see his trip to Philly), but instead the Hawks gave him the middle finger.
Basically by taking any credibility the franchise had gained in the playoffs and flushing it straight down the toilet.
The Bulls can get it done.
The 76ers can get it done.
The Warriors can get it done. Twice.
Hell, even the Bobcats can get it done.
The Hawks? Not so much...
And Sekou reports that we refuse to offer Josh more than $9 mil/year even though everyone else in his draft class is getting about $12 mil/year.
Give him his due, and give the fans something to be happy about again.

Boley Waives Arraignment

2008-08-06T14:19:00.003-04:00

I just wanted to reference this story, as reported by the AJC, for a couple of reasons.
One, his lawyer taught one of my classes in law school. Thought it was kinda cool.
Two, to point out an inefficiency in the court system. Most of the time judges will require people to show up in court for their arraignment, even though the whole process takes all of 2 minutes.

Judge: The case of State of Georgia v. Michael Boley.
Lawyer: Judge, Manny Arora for Mr. Boley. He waives his right to a formal arraignment and enters his plea of not guilty.
(Lawyer and Boley sign paper)
Clerk: The plea has been entered.
Judge: Thank you. Next case...

That's it... literally. And there are a lot of judges who won't even let you enter a plea of guilty. The whole process came about in England because most people didn't know how to read, and the first time they would find out what they were exactly charged with would be when the judge read it out to them. Do we really still need this?

The Falcons Should Trade for Favre

2008-08-06T10:36:00.002-04:00

Hear me out on this one. Favre wants out of Green Bay. Green Bay would like Favre gone but wants something in return. Green Bay doesn't want to trade him to the Vikings (which is supposedly where he wants to go).

So what is precluding a team from trading for Favre and then spinning him right back to Minny? We have the cap space to absorb him for a day and then ship him right back out. We could probably net ourselves a 3rd round pick by expending a 4th round pick to get Favre here.

Now, there are potential problems: namely, getting Favre to agree to come here. A quick line to his agent should be able to clear that up.

We'd be effectively deciding not to deal with GB ever again because they would want nothing to do with us after we did something like this but it's a business and they should understand that.

thoughts?

Artest is Crazy as Hell

2008-07-31T10:27:00.003-04:00

I know this isn't an Atlanta sports topic, but I just had to share some quotes from Ron-Ron. He was responding to this quote from Yao:

"Hopefully, he's not fighting anymore and going after a guy in the stands."

A legitimate concern, especially considering Ron-Ron's response to the Sacramento Bee:

"I understand what Yao said, but I'm still ghetto," Artest said, according to the report. "That's not going to change. I'm never going to change my culture. Yao has played with a lot of black players, but I don't think he's ever played with a black player that really represents his culture as much as I represent my culture. Once Yao Ming gets to know me, he'll understand what I'm about."

Oh, he's not done yet...

"If you go back to the brawl, that's a culture issue right there," Artest added, according to the report. "Somebody was disrespecting me, so he's got to understand where I'm coming from. People that know me know that Ron Artest never changed."

Wow... just wow. Just be glad the Hawks didn't consider a sign and trade with the Kings. There! I worked the Hawks into this post.

Warming up to Kotchman

2008-07-30T07:23:00.004-04:00

When I got the call from MLT saying we had dealt Teixeira for Casey Kotchman and a minor league pitcher (Steve Marek), my first reaction was, "That's it?" And then, "who is Marek?" I mean Teixeira is a top 5 first baseman, especially when you factor in his defense, couldn't we get more? But the more I look at the trade, the more it makes sense.

Teixeira's contract runs out at the end of this year, and, since he is a Scott Boras client, he will not sign a new contract until the offseason when Boras can use offers from other teams to raise the asking price. Some offseasons that is not much of a threat, but both the Yankees and Mets will be losing their under-performing first basemen (Giambi and Delgado respectively) after this year. Therefore, the asking price for Teixeira should skyrocket. Rumor has it that the initial numbers from Boras will be 10 years and $230 million. As much as I love Teixeira, I can't love that price tag.

We could have just let Teixeira leave in free agency and picked up the two compensatory picks in the draft, but anyone drafted would have needed a couple of years before they could contribute on the major league level. That would have sabotaged any plans to try and compete next year, which is a must considering the age of some of our key players (Smoltz and Chipper most notably).

So in return for half a year of Teixeira, we get Kotchman and Marek. Kotchman is still young (25), plays great defense, has a good bat, and, most importantly, is still under our control until 2011. While he is a downgrade in terms of power, Kotchman gives us an opportunity to plug in an affordable, major league ready first baseman (of which we do not have in the minors), use the roughly $22 million saved by not signing Teixeira to help upgrade other areas of need, and still contend next year.

Plus it helps that most of the comments from Angels fans were that they were sad to see Kotchman go. I think that's a good sign.

Teixeira sweepstakes

2008-07-29T09:20:00.004-04:00

Finally (and unfortunately possibly too late) the Braves have admitted what the rest of the league has known for some time: This season just isn't meant to be. Which means that Wren & Co. have begun the Teixeira sweepstakes.

Now it's widely known that if we keep him and he leaves via Free Agency we'd get 2 draft picks (a 1st and a sandwhich between the first and second round). So the Braves' arguement (and I agree) is that if we are trading him anywhere, we have to get *at least* 2 top prospects. After all, whichever team trades for him would get those picks when he departs after the season.

The best "fit" would be Arizona. They are unwilling to give up Conor Jackson (who should be the key cog in the deal for the Braves). They would rather give back Chad Tracey (a decent player but not someone young enough to control for a while and realistically we know his ceiling). The D-Bags. I mean D-Backs, point to Conor's superior OPS as reason not to trade for Tex. What the Braves SHOULD be replying to them is: "yeah, that's for the first half. Tex always blows up in the second half and we both know it." There's not a GM in the league that wouldn't give up two Conor Jackson's for a Tex second half. Arizona is also seeking some bullpen help. The best fit for both teams might be more of a blockbuster trade along the lines of: Tex, Ohman, and JoJo Reyes for Conor Jackson, Micah Owings, and 2 other minor leaguers. The D-Backs get a solid LHP for the pen, a stud 1B for the stretch run, and a possible future starter (not to mention the 3-4 draft picks they get when Tex and Ohman leave via F.A.) and the Braves get a solid firstbaseman for the future, a #3 starter and some developmental pieces.

That probably makes too much sense. We'll probably settle for Chad Tracey or some package of junk. I hope we don't. I'd rather just take our 2 picks and move on than settle for the pu-pu platter.

This isn't Football

2008-07-29T08:57:00.003-04:00

So I think plate collisions should be banned in baseball. Obviously this post is inspired by the pictured collision that happened on Sunday in the Braves game. Don't get me wrong though, I have no hard feelings for Shane Victorino. Under the current rules, I think he made a legitimate play... I just don't think it should be legitimate.

I know that baseball purists will cry out and complain that changing this rule would destroy the hustling spirit of baseball, or something to that effect, but plate collisions are a major health risk for catchers. Half of the time they either don't see it coming or don't have enough time to brace themselves, while the runner has a full head of steam. On Sunday the throw was coming from right field and McCann got hit right as he was turning to Victorino.

Additionally, due to the new hockey-style catcher masks, catchers have no protection for their heads. The runner has more protection since he's still got his helmet on. I don't think Victorino was head-hunting, but due to McCann's quick turn and the fact that he was crouching Victorino hit him straight in the head. Even if the runner hits the catcher below the head, the catcher has a major risk of falling back and slamming his head on the ground.

As the NFL is discovering, head injuries are serious and can have some major lasting implications. Just because baseball has less contact doesn't mean that the MLB shouldn't be concerned with head injuries as well.

The State of Atlanta Sports

2008-07-09T15:48:00.002-04:00

Editor's Note: This was written a few weeks ago and the power tripped at my office. I thought the post was lost and gone forever. Forunately, EggHead saw it saved somewhere I hadn't looked. Thanks to the Egghead. Unfortunately, the Hawks paragraph is now out of date. I'm posting it for posterity as I orininally wrote it. My new thought is that I'm happy for Childress that he was smart enough to outwit crappy management. I'm sad for my fan-dom but I like seeing smart players thumb their nose at a bad system.

That's the reason it's been quiet around these parts (well, that and the sad sad knowledge that no one reads this).

The Braves remain barely afloat in the standings. They have a profound ability this season to spoil good starts with horrible hitting and an amazing ability to make mistakes defensively late. The Franceour drama certainly didn't help morale and it seems like we play very passionless. Perhaps it is the spate of injuries that have derailed the team and their morale. Regardless, game after game the team seems to go into "hibernation mode" (as many bloggers have called it) and have an inability to score runs late. Overall they are a miserable team to try to watch play. I can only see so many McCann GIDPs, Chipper walks followed by strikeouts, and Acosta-s (that is, coming into a close game and figurately crapping yourself on the mound). I've refused to post about them for this long mainly because I'm lazy and it hurts to watch. That being said I am ready for the mirage that we aren't rebuilding to end and for the team to commit to the effort and trade some of what we have to get pieces for the future. We can accelerate our progress by moving Tex and getting something further along the development chain than the 2 first round picks we'd net if he left as a FA. We should be able to move Diaz (once he comes back) and Kotsay to contenders for some young 2nd tier prospects. Baseball is different than other sports in that you never really know who is good until they hit the big leagues. Sometimes getting 10 players and hoping 1 or 2 pan out is better than betting the house with 1 or 2 in a big trade (ask the Indians how they feel about Andy Marte right now. Or the A's about Dan Meyer).

Sadly, the most news about Atlanta sports lately is around the Hakws. Re-signing the Joshes is the most important item on the agenda (and one that I think is pretty close to happening). I don't think we had any intentions of letting Smith go to Philly and I have a gut feeling that we knew more than we let on about the Sixers looking to Brand first. The more important thing in these drawn out discussion is that our ownership mess is still unresolved. Even though http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3480488 the NBA is willing to step in and assist the Sonics new ownership group, we still get the shaft and are left to have courts and appeals run their course. It's frustrating for the team to have the mess but is ridiculous that the NBA won't step in and help clean it up (after all, they approved this ownership group to begin with).

The best news for the Falcons is that there is no news. Nothing good, nothing bad is perfect for an offseason after all the issues of the last 2 years.

Fortunately, the Dawgs season begins in less than 2 months and the fight for the National Championship begins.

Wait, what exactly did he save?

2008-05-23T08:16:00.003-04:00

I ask this question because Will Ohman got a save last night for throwing two pitches and getting one out. That's it. Did he do more than Manny Acosta who got two outs in the ninth? Nope, but he got the save and not Acosta.

Seriously, MLB needs to change its rules on what constitutes a save or at least how it is implemented. It's the most useless stat out there. Rule 10.20 in the Official Rule Book states:
"Credit a pitcher with a save when he meets all three of the following conditions:
(1) He is the finishing pitcher in a game won by his club; and
(2) He is not the winning pitcher; and
(3) He qualifies under one of the following conditions:
- (a) He enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one inning; or
- (b) He enters the game, regardless of the count, with the potential tying run either on base, or at bat, or on deck (that is, the potential tying run is either already on base or is one of the first two batsmen he faces; or
- (c) He pitches effectively for at least three innings. No more than one save may be credited in each game."

The first condition, I think, is one of the problems. Who cares if he's the finishing pitcher? Maybe they need to modify it and say they have to get at least one out in the ninth. You're basically awarding a stat not based on achievement, but on the manager's whim.

(3)(a) gets me too. Why three runs? Why should you get credit for holding a three run lead in one inning? That should be expected. Are we going to start awarding semi-wins to starters for every scoreless inning? This one drives me nuts especially for guys like Todd Jones or Joe Borowski. They come in with a 3-run lead, give up two runs, escape by the skin of their teeth, and they get a "save."

(3)(b) makes sense however. If you come in with the game on the line with the potential of someone tying the game or getting the lead and you finish the game off, then hats off to you. You saved the game. Here's your save... right next to your gold star. Todd Jones, you go sit in the corner with the dunce hat.

Bravissimo

2008-05-22T08:43:00.003-04:00

So can you tell that Chipper personally tries to destroy the Mets pitching staff? I mean this isn't at the level of 2001, but still. He went 1-2 with a homer and two walks last night. Just hope the pitch he took to his shin isn't serious.

If he has to miss any time, at least the Braves offense is starting to wake up. They have scored 6, 6, and 11 runs so far against a surprising Mets pitching staff (7th in the NL in ERA despite no Pedro and an only pretty good Johan). We'll see if this continues tonight against the aforementioned Santana.

On an unrelated note, my worst fear happened last night. I'm not exactly scared of heights, but any time I get close to those railings at Turner Field I get a slight sense of vertigo. I'm sure this story will do wonders for that! I just love this snipet, "alcohol may have been involved." Uhh... you think?

Friends don't let friends slide down rails drunk when the dropoff is 150 feet!

Your 2008-2009 Atlanta Hawks!

2008-05-20T11:29:00.007-04:00

Alright here’s the continuation of my Hawks post, answering the question of what should the Hawks do this off-season.

The party already started on May 7, 2008, when Billy Knight decided to step down. This is not especially surprising since his contract expired in July, and since the revelation that Knight allegedly tried to fire Mike Woodson three times. So the Hawks will have to find a new GM. I pray it’s not Billy King, though he would resign all of our free agents for a ton of money.

On that note, let me first address our free agents since we’re the only team with no draft picks. The Hawks have no unrestricted free agents, but Josh Smith, Josh Childress, Salim Stoudamire, Jeremy Richardson, and Mario West are all restricted free agents, which, of course, means we can match any offers.

The number one priority should be signing Josh Smith. He’s a special athlete who works hard to improve every year, he has strong ties to the Atlanta community, and except for some run-ins with Woodson, he has been a model citizen. More than likely he will command money along the lines of $70-80 million over 5 years. I say just get the man signed as long as he isn’t asking for something like a max contract.

Unfortunately signing Smith will leave very little room for signing Childress since we also have Johnson and Bibby under large contracts. He is a classic glue guy and an under-rated sixth man. If a team is smart, they will wait till the Hawks sign Smith and then offer Childress enough money that the Hawks won’t match. If, however, Speedy Claxton retires and gets his $5.7 million off the books that would leave enough money to get Childress signed as well. If he does not retire I think it will be next to impossible to try and move his contract unless the Hawks are willing to trade another asset. That brings me to my next point.

I think we should trade Marvin Williams. He is still young enough (21) for teams to see that he has potential, he still has a relatively affordable contract next year ($5.6 million), and he does little to help the team. The Hawks need two main things: (1) A solid, veteran big man who can play good defense, mentor Smith and Al Horford, and take the pressure off of them, and (2) more outside shooting to relieve the pressure off of Johnson. Marvin provides neither of those things. He’s too small to play defense in the post and he can’t shoot the three (1-10 for the YEAR!). He’s an athletic mid-range jump shooter who does not crash the boards that well (only 5.7 rpg despite being 6’9”), and does not have the aggression to become a go-to scorer. Trading Marvin, however, could get rid of Claxton’s corpse (if he doesn’t retire), bring back someone to fill one of our needs, and make room to re-sign Childress.

The remaining restricted free agents are Stoudamire, Richardson, and West. I would love to keep Stoudamire, but I think he’s gone considering his relationship with Woodson and his misuse of Stoudamire. I think we should resign Richardson and West. Richardson has a sweet shooting stroke, and West could develop into a stopper.

There's always room for...

2008-05-09T11:08:00.006-04:00

The largest bowl of wiggly jiggly badness being Mike "Mad Libs" Hampton with his injured ______ (body part) and rehab setback of ______ (time frame). But the past two years it has been more than just Hampton that has been spending time on the Jell-O list.
Minor injuries to JoJo, James, Hudson, Smoltz, and Glavine and major injuries to Gonzalez, Soriano (I'm pessimistic about the "tendinitis"), Moylan, Lerew as well as nagging injuries to the position players makes me wonder about the Braves conditioning coach. Injuries are part of baseball, but the frequency and severity of the injuries especially in regards to the pitching staff concerns me. While age might be part of the puzzle it seems strange that a team could consistently lose 1-2 players a year to the knife of Dr. James Andrews and also have a quarter of the roster spend large amounts of time in Richmond and Mississippi each summer.

Perhaps I'm spoiled by the healthiness of the 90s Braves and age has caught up to them but I can't help but wonder if there isn't something more behind it. I'm not saying the players aren't conditioned well, other than Brayan Pena and JoJo the Braves seem like one of the more athletic looking teams (strange to say that) in the league but perhaps more flexibility/stretching work needs to be done.

That said, I could just be frustrated with the $30 million dollars we've paid Hampton. At least, I guess, insurance has picked up some of the tab.

What Would You Do?

2008-05-09T09:50:00.002-04:00

Apparently Mike D’Antoni has a decision to make. This mastermind of the Phoenix Suns’ seven seconds or less offense is getting offers from the Knicks and Bulls to be their next coach. The Bulls have not put out an official offer, but for the sake of argument I’m going to assume that the Knicks are going to offer more money. They sure as hell offer more money to everyone else, so why not here too?

So if you were D’Antoni (nice mustache buddy, when did you grow that?), would you rather take less money and go to the Bulls? These are the hugely disappointing Bulls of last season with a roster that is one of the youngest in the league (Nocioni is the senior citizen at 28), which also means they are one of the more athletic teams in the league. The only frontcourt player that has a semblance of post game is Drew Gooden, who needs to be tied down and shaved for his own good. But they have plenty of perimeter players that have no conscience when it comes to jacking it up (I’m looking at you Ben Gordon!) Also the only really bad contract they have on the books is Larry Hughes.

Or would you rather go to the Knicks? This is a completely different team in that it has two post players who are legitimate forces on the block in Randolph and Curry. The bad thing is that they never pass, have high turnover rates, and only play defense when someone is trying to steal their food. They do, however, have some very good role players in Lee, Balkman, and Robinson.

I think this is an easy decision for D’Antoni. The Bulls’ young team with their athletic big men and shooters is a perfect fit for D’Antoni’s offensive schemes. Granted the Bulls don’t have a great point guard like Nash, but I guess Hinrich is a better option than anything the Knicks have. I think if D’Antoni goes to the Knicks, with the roster in the shape it is in, he will end up like Larry Brown: Fired with a bad reputation.

Hawks Season Recap

2008-05-07T13:52:00.003-04:00

Well this is my first entry into the blogosphere (spell check doesn’t like that word). I’ve certainly had many a discussion/argument with MLT about sports and edited his previous articles (it was rough), but never put my own words out there. I’m going to focus on analysis and hopefully I can add some relatively humorous remarks, but don’t hold your breath.

The Hawks season hit its climax during Game 6 of their playoff series. Going into the playoffs, no one thought much of the Hawks’ chances since they had the worst record of all the teams in the playoffs, but they were able to eek out 3 wins at home. As for the rest of the series, it is telling that the Celtics averaged 12 more points per game than the Hawks… and that is factoring in the three wins. In other words the Hawks got killed on the road. That was to be expected though, considering Boston’s home record (35-6) and Atlanta’s road record (12-29). Not a pretty combination.

All in all the season was a step forward in that our record improved, the players improved, Woodson actually started to use our athleticism on the fast break, Knight drafted well (I’m still convinced Law will be a good point guard), and we made the playoffs. Unfortunately the season also revealed that our players still do not play as a team, but, rather, as a group of individuals. We were able to get into the playoffs due to talent of those individuals, but to take the next step they have to start playing as a team.

It’s just frustrating to see a core of players that have been together for 3-4 years STILL has no clue how to play together as a team on offense or defense. And you can’t chalk it up to having young players either, because there are college teams that are more cohesive than the Hawks. Our players have no clue how to defend the pick and roll, our help defense (other than Josh Smith) is still atrocious, and we still have no offensive sets. I’m going to tear my hair out if I have to see the highlight of Garnett rolling to the basket, unguarded and with no one attempting to help, and dunking again. And how many times do I have to see the play I like to call the pick and double team on the offensive end. You know the one. It’s where Zaza, or some other player with no outside shot, sets a pick for Joe Johnson. At that point the player with no outside shot will roll to the basket while the two defenders stay on Joe. At this point Joe will back up and not pass the ball to the rolling player. Just think of the complete opposite of the pick and roll you see in a Utah game.

At some point the blame has to go to the coaching staff, whose job it is to get the team to play as one. Woodson glaring and/or gaping at the players after an error is not going to cut it. With the resignation of Billy Knight today it will be interesting to see what the future holds for Woodson and the Hawks.

Next post will be my attempt to assess what the Hawks should do this offseason.

Matt Ryan and Why I Like Him

2008-05-07T11:00:00.003-04:00

At this point the draft has come and gone and all the draft grades have been written to never be looked at again. So it's time for me to explain why I like the pick of Ryan.

Here it is: Because it's who the Falcons selected. I know that seems trite but it's really the state of being a fan. You like who the team brings in until they have a chance to prove themselves. There is no point in second guessing or speculating "what if". Ryan is OUR QB of the future and I need to get on board. In a way, we should almost be like kids again; rooting blindly for our team and supporting their choices on personnel. At least until they do something stupid like hire a prostitute the week of the super bowl, finance dogfighting rings, etc. So I'm a Matt Ryan fan now and will be. At least until we find an actual skeleton in his closet.

Blog News

2008-05-07T10:44:00.004-04:00

Sorry about the hiatus. A bunch of real life stuff got in the way. But I'm back! With help! I'll be joined soon by a good friend who cares as much about the local teams (minus the Dawgs) as I do. I'll let him introduce himself and his first post will be up in the coming days.

In the mean time, here is the Hawks finally coming together as a team. I'm normally not one for "moral victories" but watching the Celtic's freak out and almost blow the series against an inferior team was great!

The Blackout

2007-11-12T15:05:00.000-05:00

I listened to Munson call the first half of the game while driving back from Asheville. I was fortunate to get home to watch the entire second half at home.
Munson was amazed at how fired up everyone was for the game. He stated that the crowd was louder than he had ever heard it at Sanford and that, while at capacity, there still seemed to be mobs of people attempting to get in and watch.

Our intensity showed from the get go as Reggie Ball, I mean Brandon Cox, threw his first pass into Kelin Johnson's waiting arms. We had a typical UGA drive (30 yards and stall) that ended with a FG. The War Tigers responded with a FG drive of their own. Richt/Bobo then unleashed Stafford's arm as Bailey and MoMass reigned in TD passes.

We couldn't sustain the energy and allowed Auburn to come back and briefly take the lead. The crowd got back into things and the team pushed the pedal down. The running game finally got going (after stalling in the first half) behind some sensational runs by Moreno and the passing game kept the safeties deep for Auburn. Thomas Brown almost scored on a long scamper but The Plunge (Southerland) took it in as usual from 1 yard out. Georgia ended the game on a 28-0 run and fittingly, with a Cox interception. For his career against UGA, Cox is 34 of 70 with 1 TD and 9 INT. (Reggie Ball was 45 of 104 with 1 TD and 5 INT). We'll miss you Brandon Cox.

The Blackout was highly effective and Richt pointed to the Bowl game as the next time we'll don the Black. UGA is in pretty good position for the post season one way or the other. If UT loses against either Vandy or UK, UGA slips into the SEC championship and we'll get to see a good battle between the Dawgs and (more) Tigers. If UT wins out, we'll finish somewhere 5-8 in the BCS and end up in the sugar bowl (most likely). Considering this was a "rebuilding" year with underclassmen seeing extensive playing time at just about every position (notably QB, RB, OL, TE, CB, S, LB), I think UGA is happy with a shot at the SEC championship or a BCS bowl payout.

The Hawks struggled this weekend, but I wasn't around to watch. And the Falcons decided to eschew a top 5 draft pick for an extra win (didn't they learn anything from the Hawks).

Tonight: The 49ers continue their quest to make the Patriots the most stacked team in the league by getting smoked tonight and giving the Patriots and even better draft pick in 2008.

The Case For Kobe

2007-11-07T10:55:00.000-05:00

Since the end of last season, Kobe’s on again, off again trade demands have been the forefront of any discussion regarding the NBA. Many destinations have been bandied about by the media, and most of them seem illogical for both the Lakers and the possible destination. For example, Dallas would likely have to trade Dirk. Both teams would essentially just be swapping stars. Neither team would improve substantially. The Bulls would have to surrender at least 3 of their young players: Deng, Gordon, Thomas, Noah, and Hinrich. By doing this, what would be left for Kobe to work with? An aging and one dimensional Wallace and some role players. Hardly any improvement over the current Lakers.

Really, the best option would be for Kobe to come to the Hawks. The primary piece we’d have to give up would be Joe Johnson (and I’m a huge fan of Joe). A package of something Like This would net the Lakers a proven All Star in Joe, a wing player that compliments the passing of Odom and Joe in Childress and a scoring point guard in Speedy (Lue or AJ could go in his place). We’d likely have to throw in a 2009/10 draft pick (since Phoenix owns our 2008 pick) but that would give the Lakers more depth without sacrificing too much. (Let’s face it, it’s going to be impossible for them to “win” any trade they make). The Lakers offense is a good fit for both Childress and Joe, allowing them to move without the ball and use their size and passing ability in the triangle offense.

This would give the Hawks starting 5 of:
Acie Law
Kobe Bryant
Marvin Williams
Josh Smith
Al Horford

And a bench that includes a veteran PG, ZaZa, Shelden, and Salim would arguably make this the deepest team Kobe has played with.

Kobe, however, would have to approve a trade to Atlanta as he has a no-trade clause in his contract effectively allowing him to choose his destination. So why would he want to come here:
(1) Playing in the diluted Eastern Conference would give him the best chance to return to the NBA finals.
(2) He’d be coming to what some call “Black Hollywood” and would be the biggest African American star in a predominantly African American city. He could rub elbows with Outkast, Jermaine DuPri, and a host of other celebrities that live here.
(3) He’d be an instant fan phenomenon selling jerseys, shoes, and tickets (much like Vick did before his numerous issues). He’d be treated as a Messiah of sorts, the first real hardwood star in 15 years (since ‘Nique).
(4) He’d be able to reestablish himself as a leader on a competitive team.
(5) He’d be allowed to flourish in the new up-tempo offense instead of bogged down by Phil Jackson’s triangle.
(6) He would have more head to head battles with Shaq, Wade, and LeBron, which would feed his competitive desire and determination.
(7) He'd have an opportunity to play for a no-name coach. That would allow him to prove that his success was independent of his past/current pairing with a Hall of Fame coach.

Now, even though this makes a decent amount of sense, it will never happen. The ownership situation is still a mess and it’s unlikely they would all agree to such a trade. But I can hope, right?

Nice Weekend In Atlanta

2007-11-05T10:33:00.000-05:00

The weather was perfect. The Falcons, Dawgs, and Hawks all had good performances and pulled out the all-important W. Here’s a quick recap of each team.

The Falcons: The game was blacked-out in Atlanta. I wasn’t too upset—from the box score I don’t think I missed much. Seems like Harrington dinked and dunked a bunch, Dunn backed his way into 100 yards on the nose, and the defense played okay against a terrible 49er’s offense. I don’t know that we really learned much about the team other than that we are slightly better than the second crappiest team in the league. Although, winning this game means we lose the tiebreaker for draft position. I guess that’s something.

The Dawgs: The game was in hand from the start. Despite the lackluster beginning with two fumbles and a little sputtering from the offense initially, I wasn’t overly concerned. The coaches called a very vanilla game all the way around: no trick plays, no blitzing, no strange formations. We lined up, handed off, ran out routes and scored 44. Defensively, we played cover-2 pretty much the entire game. Reshad Jones got the start over what I’ll assume is an injured (again) Kelin Johnson. Reshad finally started putting it together in coverage, intercepting one pass and nearly intercepting another. Additionally, he delivered a couple of monster hits and seemed to bring a little more energy to the defense. The final score of 44-34 doesn’t indicate how close the game wasn’t. Troy’s coach kept his starters in and kept calling timeouts to get a garbage TD with 5 seconds remaining. The coaches’ goal was to get a win without revealing too much and with few to no injuries. They succeeded. Moreno went off for 196 yards and 3 TDs. After only 2 games as the starter, he’s over 1000 yards for the season with 9 TDs. He’s on pace for 1300 yards and 12 TDs, although at this rate it looks like 1500 and 15 are more realistic considering we still have 3 regular season games and at least 1 postseason (2 if UT loses another SEC game and UGA doesn’t).

The Hawks: Opened the season by downing Dallas and narrowly losing to Detroit. Both games were highlighted by a more aggressive Marvin Williams. Showing a little more hustle on the boards and continued confidence in his jumper, Marvin has been the consistent help to Joe that the team needs. Horford and Law have thus far looked just as advertised: the most NBA ready players from the draft. There are still stretches when they are a little out of place and create a few unnecessary turnovers, but overall they are playing with high energy and effectively. Woodson seems to trust them a little more than his previous rookies and is giving them a longer leash. The entire team is turning the ball over too much, but that is partially due to playing the rookies extended minutes (due to injury) and the team getting acclimated to a faster pace. Both will improve with experience, I think. Last nights game was decided by the officials. After rallying in the last 2 minutes to tie the game with seconds left, the officials called a touchy foul on Marvin with 2 seconds left. Chauncey “Mr. I have hit one big shot in my life” Billups sunk the first free throw and (seemingly) intentionally doinked the second. Josh Smith’s last second heave was to no avail. The foul was iffy. In that situation I’d prefer the refs keep the whistle out of it and let the game go to OT and be decided there. That said, coming from 10 down in the first quarter and rallying back at the end to tie it are moral victories for a young team on the road. I’ve said all along, 2 wins out of our first 6 will be good. After watching this game, I see no reason we can’t take 3 or 4. All this is without ZaZa, who we really miss. Not having an experienced C down low has hindered us defensively and we’ve missed his offensive rebounded quite a bit. It’ll be a nice lift when he comes back. AJ missed the game as his wife gave birth to their child. Congratulations to AJ on setting the new Guinness world record for the oldest male to conceive a child as well as to having the first baby born without a neck.

On Tap: Falcons go to Carolina in round 2 of the atrocious QB bust battle. Harrington vs. Carr. Hawks face NJ, Pho, and Boston this week. Boston presents the worst match up for us, as we really don’t have anyone capable of stopping KG. We should be able to take down NJ, as they have no one capable of guarding Josh Smith or Horford. The Dawgs stay at home to take on a feisty Auburn team. This will be the first home game I’ll miss in the last 5 years. I’ll hopefully find someway to listen to it discreetly. Hopefully I’ll have a pleasant drive back from NC.

Now back to your regularly scheduled program

2007-10-30T16:19:00.000-04:00

Some quick thoughts on this weekend/week.

UGA dismantled UF's vaunted offense and was in control the entire game. The only major mistake being Stafford's throw (to avoid a safety) that was picked by some Frenchman for 6. Aside from that (and Tebow apparently being too injured to run anyplace other than the goal line), the Dawgs steamrolled the Gators in J-Ville. Moreno carried the team with his 33 totes and almost 200 yards. Stafford was efficient and showed good touch on his deep ball. Figgins caught a key first down (that Tripp would have certainly dropped). The best part is all these players (along with most of the O-Line) are underclassmen. That being said, something has to be done with our KR/PR. Hopefully Mikey can get healthy and get back there, because Asher Allen has absolutely no burst. We'd get the same results by putting Brannan Sutherland back there. Defensively, Rennie Curran was everywhere and no one got by him. Reshad Jones finally delivered both big hits and decent coverage. They're both Freshman as well. We missed picking up their RB out of the backfield on wheel routes which could be a problem, but nothing that gametape and practice can't fix.

It was strange not seeing Coutu out there for 2-5 FGs during the game. But I don't think he minds too much. I won't even touch the field storming controversy other than to say that we took our punishment and didn't harm anyone. Time to move on!

No Falcons loss this weekend means no Falcons update or 2008 QB watch. (Which is good because Andre Woodson metaphorically pooped himself).

The Braves traded Renteria to the Tigers in a homecoming of sorts for Leyland/Dombrowski/Renteria. We neglected to tell the Tigers that they are getting old Renteria not 1997 Renteria. Renteria, while a good player, will only be worse in the AL than he was in the NL especially one year older. Add that to Guillen switching to 1B (where he is inferior defensively) and this has all the makings of a sieve in the Tigers IF defense. We got a pitcher (Jurrjens) who doesn't throw too hard (93) but has control. He'll compete for the 4/5 SP slot and can't be much worse than JoJo/Chuck. We also picked up a speedy 19 year old CF prospect in Gorkys Hernandez. This has to be step 1 in Wren's plans because at the moment our minor leauge OF prospects are pretty deep: Jones, Schaffer, Lillibridge, Heyward, and Hernandez. Only Jones and Lillibridge are close to ML ready. It appears that we are getting ready to turn some of this depth into a SP. My hope is for some sort of Lillibridge/Prado/JoJo for Blanton on the A's.

Hawks tipoff is at the end of this week. The first 6 games are a doozy (Dallas, Detroit, NJ, Phoenix, Boston, Washington). If we can win 2 of those I'd be content, 3 and I'd be pretty excited. It'll probably be 3 or 4 weeks before we can really get an idea of how good this team is/can be. The main focus now is to see if the Hawks can sustain the uptempo pace that the coaches are looking for (and that the coaches stick with it). The 7-1 preaseason looks good and is a testament to how deep the team is from top to bottom. Too bad Mike Hampton, I mean Speedy Claxton, will be suited up in Armani instead of Reebok.

I'm looking forward to the 11/16 game vs. Seattle. I'm hoping to go as I'd get to see (a) a Hawks win and (b) Durant in person. Both would be very enjoyable.

That's all for now. Dawgs get a breather against Troy on Saturday, Falcons take on old nemesis San Fran in what could be the worst game of offensive football in the last decade. I'll be watching with fingers covering my eyes. Hopefully Norwood can pull a Moreno at some point and make this RB by committee thing go away.

That's all for now!

2008 QB Preview Show! (I know it's still 2007!)

2007-10-22T08:49:00.000-04:00

Leftwich looked good until he "Leftwiched" with an ankle injury. See ya in 6 weeks! Prior to getting rolled up by an underrated Saints D-Line, Leftwich was firing missiles and the recievers were surprisingly hanging on to some of em. The offense would work methodically down the field when Norwood was in but we just couldn't finish them off. Once Leftwich rode the cart into the sunset, Harrington stepped in and did about the same.

The main problem for the offense (aside from the QB switch and the Offensive Tackle issues) is the playing time granted to Horn and Dunn. Both are glorified coaches at this point. Neither is able to reliably contribute. Horn's once "crisp" routes are now slower and he has no ability to stretch the defense deep. Dunn seems content to turn his back at the first point of contact and fall down for that "extra" 1 yard. Too bad he has no burst either laterally or through the hole, ending up getting his "extra yard" at the line of scrimmage. The tackles didn't do a horrible job, even without much help from TE and/or RB chip blocking. Robinson continued to impress with a highlight catch and Roddy White's emergence is setting up the WR position nicely for the future.

Which is what this team looks like it's playing towards. At 1-6 Petrino is intelligent enough to understand that this season is effectively over and he's looking towards development. Hence Leftwich getting a look. In the end, I don't think it matters who plays QB this year. We've locked up a top 10 draft position and sights are likely set on a QB from a major Kentucky school.

Brohm: 68% completion 3000 yards 24TD/6 Int. Won-Loss isn't his fault. He doesn't play defense. Completing almost 70% of his passes for well over 300 yards and 3TDs per game as a senior is astounding. Injuries are the only concern for Brohm as he's missed significant time throughout his tenure.

Woodson: 65% completion 2200 yards 26TD/4 Int. A huge quarterback with a great arm and impeccable touch. A little scattershot at times. A great leader who knows how to rally a team and how to come from behind.

I know it's a little early to preview QBs for 2008, but these are the two with whom Petrino is most familiar, and lets face it, I need something to give me hope at the moment.

On a good note, Teblow is going to miss some practice and all contact drills this week because his coach decided to ride him like a circus pony all year. Who knew that a 19 year old in his first year as starting QB couldn't be 75% of his teams offense without it taking a toll. For the first time, I'm not too worried about the game. All the pressure is on Florida's side and they are coming off a physical game in Lexington. It's gunna be a good one to watch on the River this weekend!

p.s. sorry for the delay in posts. was out sick. I'll be at the game so likely no posts Thurs-Sat.

Ugh x2

2007-10-07T16:24:00.000-04:00

When your defense forces 5 turnovers, a 35 QB rating by the opponent, and holds them under 100 yards rushing you should probably win. Right? Right!?

The only defensive player who didn't have a good game was Abraham, who just couldn't get on track and seemed tired the entire game. Stellar efforts from Boley and D. Hall kept the Titans from moving the ball (and maintaining possession as well). D. Williams got into the act late with a big interception and a HUGE tackle on the punter. Defensively, it looked like we had seen a QB like Young a lot in the past. I wonder why? We rushed the edges to keep him in the pocket and force him to beat us with his arm. Unfortunately, our LBs and DBs didn't have the running room to return all of his picks for TDs.

The real problem today was that we were unable to do anything offensively. We couldn't run, we couldn't pass short, we couldn't pass deep, we couldn't throw screens. If the game called us to take a knee, we probably would have screwed that up. Harrington looked rattled from all the hits he was taking. Petrino decided to roll the dice and put in Leftwich. He proceeded to throw everything about 10 yards above his targets and ended the game by getting shoelace sacked. Keonen and Methuselah couldn't make their non-chip shot FGs and that ended up being the difference (it's gunna be nice next year when Coutu is nailing those 47 yarders for us!) For another week, Dunn looks Dunn. Excuse me, done. Norwood got a little momentum after his first long KR and moved the ball a little. We need a big back who can plow for a yard or two when needed (has anyone heard from TJ Duckett???). Trying a flip play on 1st and goal from the 1 was only necessary because we don't have a road grader who can hold onto the ball.

Haynesworth was ridiculous all game. When he leapt over the G/C to bring down leftwhich and cause a 8 yard loss, I was in awe. I've never seen a DT jump over the O-Line to make a stop like that. Too bad I was rooting for the Falcons.

Petrino seemingly made up his mind and will be switching to Leftwich. The problems Leftwich had were those of timing and "feel". Getting the workload in practice should help to remedy those issues. Leftwich doesn't seem to fall away on his throws the same way Harrington does/did. Leftwich has vastly superior arm strength. At times it seems like Harrington just can't get the ball deep enough and coordinators are taking notice and playing more under coverage.

Wayne Gandy left on the cart with a knee injury. Let's hope it's not serious.

In league injury news, Trent Green took a knee to the helmet while trying to block and had to be carted off the field. I know they can't do this, but the league shouldn't let him back on the field. It stinks that he has to go out this way but having this happen two consecutive years should be terrifying to him. That said, what the hell is he doing try to block down low? Hey, Trent! You missed last year with Post-Concussion Syndrome from getting NAILED IN THE HEAD! I want to have sympathy but he's making it tough.

At least UGA didn't drop out of the polls. I guess that something to be happy about this week.

Ugh

2007-10-06T19:10:00.000-04:00

I didn't want to post about the game but figured if I didn't vent I might explode and run over the next idiot wearing orange I saw. I don't even feel like watching Florida get destroyed at this point.

Offensively they stunk. Bobo waited too long into the game to start calling screens. It had worked all year for them, but they seemingly forgot that and want to point our 180 lb backs up the middle repeatedly. Stafford was a little off early on but his recievers did a piss poor job (as usual) of helping him in any fashion. This is the third year in a row they haven't had a single reliable reciever, perhaps it's time Georgia lets go whomever is coaching them because things like "catching" and "running routes" seem to be missing. But hey, at least they block well down field. Let Israel Troupe play, already.

The defense couldn't stop Foster if they had 13 men out there. The DBs were constantly sucked to the line and consistently out of position for cutbacks and stretches. Prince Miller continued to play the Lewis Sanders school of Cornerbacking where you stay 2 yards off your man so he can catch it and you can get the easy tackle. Kelin Johnson looks done at Safety. He isn't a hard hitter, he can't help in coverage. What exactly does he do out there? The D-Line is just way too small. It's one thing to be small at end or have quick DTs but having every position underweight leads to teams running up the gut on you (see BJGE from Ole Miss).

But hey, the O-Line looked decent in pass blocking. That's always good.
And apparently opposing teams are terrified of Mikey Henderson. That's nice. Too bad they couldn't make UT punt when it mattered.

The trick play just happens. I can live with that. Overall it was just embarassing. I'm glad this is a rebuilding year for us and these things can be tolerated. It's a learning experience for Stafford, Moreno, the entire O-Line, the secondary, and our WRs. I'm glad they are all young. Maybe this makes us more of a sleeper and we can upset the Florida Tebows. By the time our game with them rolls around, Meyer will have worn him out.

Falcons vs Titans can't come soon enough.

Human LCD

2007-10-04T09:00:00.000-04:00

This is ridiculous. I was mezmerized by it. These are people doing this with their clothes.