Big Men for the Hawks

Last year the Hawks only had three big men they played on a regular basis: Josh, Al, and Zaza. Our lack of frontcourt depth, however, was even more glaring when there was an injury because Solo and Morris were simply not viable options. Even when all three were healthy, at some point in the game we had to sit two of them at once and go small. While going small can be a good thing when you have a dominant rebounder (see Howard, Dwight), going small when you are already playing undersized bigs leads to a huge rebounding disparity.

The Hawks have to invest in at least one big man over the summer since Zaza and Solo are free agents. Personally, I would prefer if the Hawks signed two big men. So let's take a look at the list:

The Too Expensive List: Odom, Millsap (Restricted), David Lee (R), and Rasheed Wallace. Villanueva, who surprisingly was not tendered by the Bucks, probably belongs on this list as well since he'll be looking for a big payday. We won't get any of these guys.

The Old Guy List: McDyess, Joe Smith, Malik Rose, Mikki Moore, Nesterovic, Jamaal Magloire, Theo Ratliff, Jason Collins, Calvin Booth, and Lorenzen Wright. Out of this list I wouldn't mind having McDyess, Smith, or Nesterovic for the right price. Unfortunately Smith and McDyess will probably be holding out for a championship and know that the Hawks aren't quite there yet. But Nesterovic might be an option.

The Young and Unproven List: Johan Petro, Melvin Ely, Robert Swift, Saer Sene, DJ Mbenga, Ike Diogu (R), Channing Frye (R), Shelden Williams, Steve Novak (R), and Shavlik Randolph. I wouldn't mind taking a shot on some of these guys as the 4th big in our rotation. I would be wary of the projects, however, since I don't want another big man sitting at the end of the bench doing nothing with Morris. So I would limit it to Diogu, Frye, and Novak. All of those are restricted however. The rest of the guys I wouldn't be against signing for cheap to fill out the roster, but I don't know if I want them seeing significant court time.

The Just Right List: Zaza Pachulia, Brandon Bass, Glenn "Big Baby" Davis (R), Chris Wilcox, Stromile Swift, Hakim Warrick (R), Leon Powe (R), Marcin Gortat (R), Chris Anderson, and Chris Mihm. These guys are probably not going to command more than the mid-level exception and have proven that they can be productive. The obvious favorite of the bunch is Zaza, especially since the preference is to go after the unrestricted free agents first.

The Hawks have to sign one of the Just Rights or Nesterovic just to survive the season and make the playoffs. To thrive, in the regular season and the playoffs, I think they need to sign two effective big men. We've seen how Woody uses his big men (he doesn't), so ideally we need an energetic guy who doesn't need to ball in his hands to be effective on the offensive end and who can at least hold down the fort on the defensive end.

Hopefully the Hawks can invest 8-10 million on the two big men and try to secure two of the Just Rights. If not, then they will have to sign one and then maybe take another cheap gamble on a young, unproven big man. At the very least we can get Morris a friend who might make him smile.

What to Make of the Braves

They drive me crazy. They're just good enough that I have to keep following them, especially with their starters. But they're just bad enough that I want to throw something every time I get too involved, especially on offense.

Starters: It's a crime that Jurrjens and Vazquez have losing records, and I think they should get to hit a Braves batter of their choice during their next warm-ups. I can't wait until Hanson is able to show a bit more command of his pitches. It'll be a joy to watch. Glad we didn't trade him for Peavy.

Bullpen: Soriano is dominant. Gonzalez makes it interesting, but gets the job done. I love how Bobby is using the two of them in tandem. Jeff Bennett's WHIP is 1.85, he's given up a walk-off bases loaded walk, and a walk-off HR to Nick Green. Therefore, he should never pitch again. I know we don't do it due to options, but I wish we would just cycle through relievers more. Some of the guys down at Gwinnett have to be able to do better than Bennett or Carlyle.

Offense: This is where it gets uglier than Escobar's hair. There isn't a single player with double-digit HRs in a Braves uniform (note: McLouth hit 9 of his 12 as a Pirate), while there are 84 in the majors. That's almost three per team.
Our team leader in RBIs is Escobar with 39. There's only 64 people ahead of him.
We trotted out Greg Norton for 50 at-bats. He got 4 hits.
We can't give Francoeur away.
I still don't understand how Brandon Jones would be any worse than Garrett Anderson. In fact, with the improved defense, he'd probably be better.
In fact, given how little life the Braves offense has had, I refuse to write another word about an offensive player unless they have an OBP higher than .350. Congratulations Brandon Jones, Brian McCann, Chipper Jones, David Ross, Omar Infante, and Matt Diaz. Too bad Brandon is in the minors and Infante is hurt.

So next time it's all about pitching and four offensive players. And you wonder why I post more about the Hawks...

Hawks Free Agency

NBA free agent signing period starts on July 1, 2009, and the Hawks have plenty of holes to fill. Let's start with what the Hawks have:

G: Teague, Crawford, and Joe Johnson (No PG in sight)
SF: Mo Evans
PF: Josh Smith
C: Horford and Randolph Morris

They have those 7 players signed for a grand total of $42.8 million. (Great website for salaries) The salary cap last year was $58.680 million with the tax threshold at $71.150 million. Last year the Hawks salary was at about $69 million. So with the downturn in the economy let's say the Hawks are looking to spend $65 million. So that gives Sund about $22 million to sign about 6-7 players. Out of that 6-7, the Hawks need to sign at least 3 guys that Woody will actually play. Right now we have 5 players we know he will use, one we know he will not (Morris), and one we have no clue about (Teague). So we need at least 3 more guys: a guard (preferably a vet PG), a larger wing player, and a big man.

Hopefully the role of larger wing player will be filled by Marvin, who we'll say will command a salary of about 7-8 million. He'll get less than Josh, so we'll go with 5 years, 40 million to be generous. That will put the Hawks salary at $50.8 million.

The role of vet PG once again will hopefully be filled by Bibby, but there is the concern that he will command too high of a salary, especially if he demands a salary anywhere near the $15 million he made last year. So in the interest of due diligence, let's take a look at the rest of the vet PGs. Andre Miller, Anthony Carter, Tyronn Lue, Brevin Knight, and Juan Dixon. Those are the PGs that aren't too terribly old, and are decent enough to warrant playing time. I will rule out Miller since the Hawks are not an up-tempo team and Miller can't hit a 3 (28% last year). Neither can Knight (I don't think he averaged 1 attempt a game), so he gets eliminated.

So that leaves Carter, who was resurgent last year, but is 34 and not great at the 3; Lue, who is still a fan favorite; and Juan Dixon, who is a gritty guard who is ok at the 3, but is more of a slasher. Based on Woody's offensive system, I would pretty much limit this to the more expensive, more effective Bibby or the cheaper, less effective Lue. I think it's more likely to be Lue at this point.

So should we sign Bibby and leave only 5-7 million to sign at least 4 players including a quality big man, or should we sign Lue and leave 12-13 million for those 4 players? Or are my numbers, especially how much the Hawks are willing to spend, completely off?

Will take a look at the big men in free agency before Wednesday...

The Hawks do NOT have a Point Guard

I don't know how to feel about it. I grew up idolizing the great point guards: Stockton, Thomas, Tim Hardaway when he was on Golden State. And now the Hawks don't have a single player you could point to and say, "I absolutely want him running my offense." I mean it was borderline last year with shoot-first Bibby who ran everything through Webber or Brad Miller in Sacto and the undeveloped Law. But now there is no doubt. Let's take a look at the candidates:

Jamal Crawford - I think the consensus is that if we rely on him to play the point, we are screwed. Crawford is a proverbial black hole with the ball. You throw it to him, and you're not going to see it back. He's basically a rich man's Flip.
Jeff Teague - Sure, he played PG in college and will continue to do so in the NBA, but it's not because of his passing skills. He's a shooting guard who is too short. This year at Wake he averaged only 3.5 assists/game, while also averaging 3.4 turnovers/game. This combines for an unimpressive 1.06 a/t ratio.

That's it. That's our PG options for now. Take this all with a grain of salt though, because Woody doesn't exactly like traditional PGs anyway. His offense more closely resembles the Mavericks from a couple of years ago. The PG is just there to dribble it up the court and pass it to Joe (most of the time) or one of the other players so they can isolate against their defender. So the Hawks actually are a better team when they are playing with basically two shooting guards. Bibby was ideal because he had enough of a passing game that he could get the ball where it needed to go without any problems, but he also had a good enough shot that teams could not play off of him thereby creating more space for the isolated player. I think that's one of the main reasons why Woody never played Law. His game was more of the drive-and-kick variety where he could finish in the lane and hit the mid-range jumper.

With Woody's offensive philosophy in mind (and trust me, I hate the idea of catering our roster to Woody), the options of Crawford and Teague at the "PG" position makes a little more sense. Woody is looking more for a PG like the ones Phil Jackson is always looking for. Just get the ball up the court, give it to your best player, and be able to hit an open 3. Too bad we don't have Phil as our coach...