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Monday, November 12, 2007

The Blackout

I listened to Munson call the first half of the game while driving back from Asheville. I was fortunate to get home to watch the entire second half at home.
Munson was amazed at how fired up everyone was for the game. He stated that the crowd was louder than he had ever heard it at Sanford and that, while at capacity, there still seemed to be mobs of people attempting to get in and watch.

Our intensity showed from the get go as Reggie Ball, I mean Brandon Cox, threw his first pass into Kelin Johnson's waiting arms. We had a typical UGA drive (30 yards and stall) that ended with a FG. The War Tigers responded with a FG drive of their own. Richt/Bobo then unleashed Stafford's arm as Bailey and MoMass reigned in TD passes.

We couldn't sustain the energy and allowed Auburn to come back and briefly take the lead. The crowd got back into things and the team pushed the pedal down. The running game finally got going (after stalling in the first half) behind some sensational runs by Moreno and the passing game kept the safeties deep for Auburn. Thomas Brown almost scored on a long scamper but The Plunge (Southerland) took it in as usual from 1 yard out. Georgia ended the game on a 28-0 run and fittingly, with a Cox interception. For his career against UGA, Cox is 34 of 70 with 1 TD and 9 INT. (Reggie Ball was 45 of 104 with 1 TD and 5 INT). We'll miss you Brandon Cox.

The Blackout was highly effective and Richt pointed to the Bowl game as the next time we'll don the Black. UGA is in pretty good position for the post season one way or the other. If UT loses against either Vandy or UK, UGA slips into the SEC championship and we'll get to see a good battle between the Dawgs and (more) Tigers. If UT wins out, we'll finish somewhere 5-8 in the BCS and end up in the sugar bowl (most likely). Considering this was a "rebuilding" year with underclassmen seeing extensive playing time at just about every position (notably QB, RB, OL, TE, CB, S, LB), I think UGA is happy with a shot at the SEC championship or a BCS bowl payout.

The Hawks struggled this weekend, but I wasn't around to watch. And the Falcons decided to eschew a top 5 draft pick for an extra win (didn't they learn anything from the Hawks).

Tonight: The 49ers continue their quest to make the Patriots the most stacked team in the league by getting smoked tonight and giving the Patriots and even better draft pick in 2008.

Wednesday, November 7, 2007

The Case For Kobe

Since the end of last season, Kobe’s on again, off again trade demands have been the forefront of any discussion regarding the NBA. Many destinations have been bandied about by the media, and most of them seem illogical for both the Lakers and the possible destination. For example, Dallas would likely have to trade Dirk. Both teams would essentially just be swapping stars. Neither team would improve substantially. The Bulls would have to surrender at least 3 of their young players: Deng, Gordon, Thomas, Noah, and Hinrich. By doing this, what would be left for Kobe to work with? An aging and one dimensional Wallace and some role players. Hardly any improvement over the current Lakers.

Really, the best option would be for Kobe to come to the Hawks. The primary piece we’d have to give up would be Joe Johnson (and I’m a huge fan of Joe). A package of something Like This would net the Lakers a proven All Star in Joe, a wing player that compliments the passing of Odom and Joe in Childress and a scoring point guard in Speedy (Lue or AJ could go in his place). We’d likely have to throw in a 2009/10 draft pick (since Phoenix owns our 2008 pick) but that would give the Lakers more depth without sacrificing too much. (Let’s face it, it’s going to be impossible for them to “win” any trade they make). The Lakers offense is a good fit for both Childress and Joe, allowing them to move without the ball and use their size and passing ability in the triangle offense.

This would give the Hawks starting 5 of:
Acie Law
Kobe Bryant
Marvin Williams
Josh Smith
Al Horford


And a bench that includes a veteran PG, ZaZa, Shelden, and Salim would arguably make this the deepest team Kobe has played with.

Kobe, however, would have to approve a trade to Atlanta as he has a no-trade clause in his contract effectively allowing him to choose his destination. So why would he want to come here:
(1) Playing in the diluted Eastern Conference would give him the best chance to return to the NBA finals.
(2) He’d be coming to what some call “Black Hollywood” and would be the biggest African American star in a predominantly African American city. He could rub elbows with Outkast, Jermaine DuPri, and a host of other celebrities that live here.
(3) He’d be an instant fan phenomenon selling jerseys, shoes, and tickets (much like Vick did before his numerous issues). He’d be treated as a Messiah of sorts, the first real hardwood star in 15 years (since ‘Nique).
(4) He’d be able to reestablish himself as a leader on a competitive team.
(5) He’d be allowed to flourish in the new up-tempo offense instead of bogged down by Phil Jackson’s triangle.
(6) He would have more head to head battles with Shaq, Wade, and LeBron, which would feed his competitive desire and determination.
(7) He'd have an opportunity to play for a no-name coach. That would allow him to prove that his success was independent of his past/current pairing with a Hall of Fame coach.

Now, even though this makes a decent amount of sense, it will never happen. The ownership situation is still a mess and it’s unlikely they would all agree to such a trade. But I can hope, right?

Monday, November 5, 2007

Nice Weekend In Atlanta

The weather was perfect. The Falcons, Dawgs, and Hawks all had good performances and pulled out the all-important W. Here’s a quick recap of each team.

The Falcons: The game was blacked-out in Atlanta. I wasn’t too upset—from the box score I don’t think I missed much. Seems like Harrington dinked and dunked a bunch, Dunn backed his way into 100 yards on the nose, and the defense played okay against a terrible 49er’s offense. I don’t know that we really learned much about the team other than that we are slightly better than the second crappiest team in the league. Although, winning this game means we lose the tiebreaker for draft position. I guess that’s something.

The Dawgs: The game was in hand from the start. Despite the lackluster beginning with two fumbles and a little sputtering from the offense initially, I wasn’t overly concerned. The coaches called a very vanilla game all the way around: no trick plays, no blitzing, no strange formations. We lined up, handed off, ran out routes and scored 44. Defensively, we played cover-2 pretty much the entire game. Reshad Jones got the start over what I’ll assume is an injured (again) Kelin Johnson. Reshad finally started putting it together in coverage, intercepting one pass and nearly intercepting another. Additionally, he delivered a couple of monster hits and seemed to bring a little more energy to the defense. The final score of 44-34 doesn’t indicate how close the game wasn’t. Troy’s coach kept his starters in and kept calling timeouts to get a garbage TD with 5 seconds remaining. The coaches’ goal was to get a win without revealing too much and with few to no injuries. They succeeded. Moreno went off for 196 yards and 3 TDs. After only 2 games as the starter, he’s over 1000 yards for the season with 9 TDs. He’s on pace for 1300 yards and 12 TDs, although at this rate it looks like 1500 and 15 are more realistic considering we still have 3 regular season games and at least 1 postseason (2 if UT loses another SEC game and UGA doesn’t).

The Hawks:
Opened the season by downing Dallas and narrowly losing to Detroit. Both games were highlighted by a more aggressive Marvin Williams. Showing a little more hustle on the boards and continued confidence in his jumper, Marvin has been the consistent help to Joe that the team needs. Horford and Law have thus far looked just as advertised: the most NBA ready players from the draft. There are still stretches when they are a little out of place and create a few unnecessary turnovers, but overall they are playing with high energy and effectively. Woodson seems to trust them a little more than his previous rookies and is giving them a longer leash. The entire team is turning the ball over too much, but that is partially due to playing the rookies extended minutes (due to injury) and the team getting acclimated to a faster pace. Both will improve with experience, I think. Last nights game was decided by the officials. After rallying in the last 2 minutes to tie the game with seconds left, the officials called a touchy foul on Marvin with 2 seconds left. Chauncey “Mr. I have hit one big shot in my life” Billups sunk the first free throw and (seemingly) intentionally doinked the second. Josh Smith’s last second heave was to no avail. The foul was iffy. In that situation I’d prefer the refs keep the whistle out of it and let the game go to OT and be decided there. That said, coming from 10 down in the first quarter and rallying back at the end to tie it are moral victories for a young team on the road. I’ve said all along, 2 wins out of our first 6 will be good. After watching this game, I see no reason we can’t take 3 or 4. All this is without ZaZa, who we really miss. Not having an experienced C down low has hindered us defensively and we’ve missed his offensive rebounded quite a bit. It’ll be a nice lift when he comes back. AJ missed the game as his wife gave birth to their child. Congratulations to AJ on setting the new Guinness world record for the oldest male to conceive a child as well as to having the first baby born without a neck.

On Tap: Falcons go to Carolina in round 2 of the atrocious QB bust battle. Harrington vs. Carr. Hawks face NJ, Pho, and Boston this week. Boston presents the worst match up for us, as we really don’t have anyone capable of stopping KG. We should be able to take down NJ, as they have no one capable of guarding Josh Smith or Horford. The Dawgs stay at home to take on a feisty Auburn team. This will be the first home game I’ll miss in the last 5 years. I’ll hopefully find someway to listen to it discreetly. Hopefully I’ll have a pleasant drive back from NC.

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Now back to your regularly scheduled program

Some quick thoughts on this weekend/week.

UGA dismantled UF's vaunted offense and was in control the entire game. The only major mistake being Stafford's throw (to avoid a safety) that was picked by some Frenchman for 6. Aside from that (and Tebow apparently being too injured to run anyplace other than the goal line), the Dawgs steamrolled the Gators in J-Ville. Moreno carried the team with his 33 totes and almost 200 yards. Stafford was efficient and showed good touch on his deep ball. Figgins caught a key first down (that Tripp would have certainly dropped). The best part is all these players (along with most of the O-Line) are underclassmen. That being said, something has to be done with our KR/PR. Hopefully Mikey can get healthy and get back there, because Asher Allen has absolutely no burst. We'd get the same results by putting Brannan Sutherland back there. Defensively, Rennie Curran was everywhere and no one got by him. Reshad Jones finally delivered both big hits and decent coverage. They're both Freshman as well. We missed picking up their RB out of the backfield on wheel routes which could be a problem, but nothing that gametape and practice can't fix.

It was strange not seeing Coutu out there for 2-5 FGs during the game. But I don't think he minds too much. I won't even touch the field storming controversy other than to say that we took our punishment and didn't harm anyone. Time to move on!

No Falcons loss this weekend means no Falcons update or 2008 QB watch. (Which is good because Andre Woodson metaphorically pooped himself).

The Braves traded Renteria to the Tigers in a homecoming of sorts for Leyland/Dombrowski/Renteria. We neglected to tell the Tigers that they are getting old Renteria not 1997 Renteria. Renteria, while a good player, will only be worse in the AL than he was in the NL especially one year older. Add that to Guillen switching to 1B (where he is inferior defensively) and this has all the makings of a sieve in the Tigers IF defense. We got a pitcher (Jurrjens) who doesn't throw too hard (93) but has control. He'll compete for the 4/5 SP slot and can't be much worse than JoJo/Chuck. We also picked up a speedy 19 year old CF prospect in Gorkys Hernandez. This has to be step 1 in Wren's plans because at the moment our minor leauge OF prospects are pretty deep: Jones, Schaffer, Lillibridge, Heyward, and Hernandez. Only Jones and Lillibridge are close to ML ready. It appears that we are getting ready to turn some of this depth into a SP. My hope is for some sort of Lillibridge/Prado/JoJo for Blanton on the A's.

Hawks tipoff is at the end of this week. The first 6 games are a doozy (Dallas, Detroit, NJ, Phoenix, Boston, Washington). If we can win 2 of those I'd be content, 3 and I'd be pretty excited. It'll probably be 3 or 4 weeks before we can really get an idea of how good this team is/can be. The main focus now is to see if the Hawks can sustain the uptempo pace that the coaches are looking for (and that the coaches stick with it). The 7-1 preaseason looks good and is a testament to how deep the team is from top to bottom. Too bad Mike Hampton, I mean Speedy Claxton, will be suited up in Armani instead of Reebok.

I'm looking forward to the 11/16 game vs. Seattle. I'm hoping to go as I'd get to see (a) a Hawks win and (b) Durant in person. Both would be very enjoyable.

That's all for now. Dawgs get a breather against Troy on Saturday, Falcons take on old nemesis San Fran in what could be the worst game of offensive football in the last decade. I'll be watching with fingers covering my eyes. Hopefully Norwood can pull a Moreno at some point and make this RB by committee thing go away.

That's all for now!

Monday, October 22, 2007

2008 QB Preview Show! (I know it's still 2007!)

Leftwich looked good until he "Leftwiched" with an ankle injury. See ya in 6 weeks! Prior to getting rolled up by an underrated Saints D-Line, Leftwich was firing missiles and the recievers were surprisingly hanging on to some of em. The offense would work methodically down the field when Norwood was in but we just couldn't finish them off. Once Leftwich rode the cart into the sunset, Harrington stepped in and did about the same.

The main problem for the offense (aside from the QB switch and the Offensive Tackle issues) is the playing time granted to Horn and Dunn. Both are glorified coaches at this point. Neither is able to reliably contribute. Horn's once "crisp" routes are now slower and he has no ability to stretch the defense deep. Dunn seems content to turn his back at the first point of contact and fall down for that "extra" 1 yard. Too bad he has no burst either laterally or through the hole, ending up getting his "extra yard" at the line of scrimmage. The tackles didn't do a horrible job, even without much help from TE and/or RB chip blocking. Robinson continued to impress with a highlight catch and Roddy White's emergence is setting up the WR position nicely for the future.

Which is what this team looks like it's playing towards. At 1-6 Petrino is intelligent enough to understand that this season is effectively over and he's looking towards development. Hence Leftwich getting a look. In the end, I don't think it matters who plays QB this year. We've locked up a top 10 draft position and sights are likely set on a QB from a major Kentucky school.

Brohm: 68% completion 3000 yards 24TD/6 Int. Won-Loss isn't his fault. He doesn't play defense. Completing almost 70% of his passes for well over 300 yards and 3TDs per game as a senior is astounding. Injuries are the only concern for Brohm as he's missed significant time throughout his tenure.

Woodson: 65% completion 2200 yards 26TD/4 Int. A huge quarterback with a great arm and impeccable touch. A little scattershot at times. A great leader who knows how to rally a team and how to come from behind.

I know it's a little early to preview QBs for 2008, but these are the two with whom Petrino is most familiar, and lets face it, I need something to give me hope at the moment.

On a good note, Teblow is going to miss some practice and all contact drills this week because his coach decided to ride him like a circus pony all year. Who knew that a 19 year old in his first year as starting QB couldn't be 75% of his teams offense without it taking a toll. For the first time, I'm not too worried about the game. All the pressure is on Florida's side and they are coming off a physical game in Lexington. It's gunna be a good one to watch on the River this weekend!

p.s. sorry for the delay in posts. was out sick. I'll be at the game so likely no posts Thurs-Sat.

Sunday, October 7, 2007

Ugh x2

When your defense forces 5 turnovers, a 35 QB rating by the opponent, and holds them under 100 yards rushing you should probably win. Right? Right!?

The only defensive player who didn't have a good game was Abraham, who just couldn't get on track and seemed tired the entire game. Stellar efforts from Boley and D. Hall kept the Titans from moving the ball (and maintaining possession as well). D. Williams got into the act late with a big interception and a HUGE tackle on the punter. Defensively, it looked like we had seen a QB like Young a lot in the past. I wonder why? We rushed the edges to keep him in the pocket and force him to beat us with his arm. Unfortunately, our LBs and DBs didn't have the running room to return all of his picks for TDs.

The real problem today was that we were unable to do anything offensively. We couldn't run, we couldn't pass short, we couldn't pass deep, we couldn't throw screens. If the game called us to take a knee, we probably would have screwed that up. Harrington looked rattled from all the hits he was taking. Petrino decided to roll the dice and put in Leftwich. He proceeded to throw everything about 10 yards above his targets and ended the game by getting shoelace sacked. Keonen and Methuselah couldn't make their non-chip shot FGs and that ended up being the difference (it's gunna be nice next year when Coutu is nailing those 47 yarders for us!) For another week, Dunn looks Dunn. Excuse me, done. Norwood got a little momentum after his first long KR and moved the ball a little. We need a big back who can plow for a yard or two when needed (has anyone heard from TJ Duckett???). Trying a flip play on 1st and goal from the 1 was only necessary because we don't have a road grader who can hold onto the ball.

Haynesworth was ridiculous all game. When he leapt over the G/C to bring down leftwhich and cause a 8 yard loss, I was in awe. I've never seen a DT jump over the O-Line to make a stop like that. Too bad I was rooting for the Falcons.

Petrino seemingly made up his mind and will be switching to Leftwich. The problems Leftwich had were those of timing and "feel". Getting the workload in practice should help to remedy those issues. Leftwich doesn't seem to fall away on his throws the same way Harrington does/did. Leftwich has vastly superior arm strength. At times it seems like Harrington just can't get the ball deep enough and coordinators are taking notice and playing more under coverage.

Wayne Gandy left on the cart with a knee injury. Let's hope it's not serious.

In league injury news, Trent Green took a knee to the helmet while trying to block and had to be carted off the field. I know they can't do this, but the league shouldn't let him back on the field. It stinks that he has to go out this way but having this happen two consecutive years should be terrifying to him. That said, what the hell is he doing try to block down low? Hey, Trent! You missed last year with Post-Concussion Syndrome from getting NAILED IN THE HEAD! I want to have sympathy but he's making it tough.

At least UGA didn't drop out of the polls. I guess that something to be happy about this week.

Saturday, October 6, 2007

Ugh

I didn't want to post about the game but figured if I didn't vent I might explode and run over the next idiot wearing orange I saw. I don't even feel like watching Florida get destroyed at this point.

Offensively they stunk. Bobo waited too long into the game to start calling screens. It had worked all year for them, but they seemingly forgot that and want to point our 180 lb backs up the middle repeatedly. Stafford was a little off early on but his recievers did a piss poor job (as usual) of helping him in any fashion. This is the third year in a row they haven't had a single reliable reciever, perhaps it's time Georgia lets go whomever is coaching them because things like "catching" and "running routes" seem to be missing. But hey, at least they block well down field. Let Israel Troupe play, already.

The defense couldn't stop Foster if they had 13 men out there. The DBs were constantly sucked to the line and consistently out of position for cutbacks and stretches. Prince Miller continued to play the Lewis Sanders school of Cornerbacking where you stay 2 yards off your man so he can catch it and you can get the easy tackle. Kelin Johnson looks done at Safety. He isn't a hard hitter, he can't help in coverage. What exactly does he do out there? The D-Line is just way too small. It's one thing to be small at end or have quick DTs but having every position underweight leads to teams running up the gut on you (see BJGE from Ole Miss).

But hey, the O-Line looked decent in pass blocking. That's always good.
And apparently opposing teams are terrified of Mikey Henderson. That's nice. Too bad they couldn't make UT punt when it mattered.

The trick play just happens. I can live with that. Overall it was just embarassing. I'm glad this is a rebuilding year for us and these things can be tolerated. It's a learning experience for Stafford, Moreno, the entire O-Line, the secondary, and our WRs. I'm glad they are all young. Maybe this makes us more of a sleeper and we can upset the Florida Tebows. By the time our game with them rolls around, Meyer will have worn him out.

Falcons vs Titans can't come soon enough.

Thursday, October 4, 2007

Human LCD

This is ridiculous. I was mezmerized by it. These are people doing this with their clothes.


Wednesday, October 3, 2007

Heightened Expectations

The 2007-2008 Hawks season got officially got underway with the opening of training camp this week. With all players reporting to camp healthy and ready to get the season underway, it seemed like the perfect opportunity to sit down with some of the Hawks to discuss their expectations for the season. Unfortunately, I’m not part of the real media and don’t have access to the players. So I just get to preview the team without having to worry if they like or dislike what I say about them.

I’ll start by previewing each player and what I think we can expect. Then I’ll get to the team prediction.

Point Guards: Something’s got to give here. With 3 veterans who all do the exact same things well and a rookie who needs to get playing time to develop, there has to be some changes in the roster or turmoil will ensure. The most logical move is to trade fan favorite Tyronn Lue. He’s on the last year of his contract and has playoff experience; a team like Cleveland or even the Lakers could benefit from his presence. If the Hawks keep Lue, he’s my bet to start as he is familiar with Woodson’s offense and the entire roster. Law will likely be the first point guard off the bench because of his ability to pass, shoot, and defend.
T. Lue: Should end up getting around 20-25 mpg. His career averages of 11 ppg and 3 apg seem about right for this season. I question his ability to stay healthy with his smaller stature, though. If he can hold it together long enough for Law to acclimate, they can look for a steady year from the PG position.
Acie Law: My hope is that his experience in college will convince Woody to give him more PT than he normally gives his younger players (remember Woody was on Larry Brown’s staff for years). Law will have his ups and downs but I think his shooting ability will keep him in the rotation even when he doesn’t have the feel for the passing game. His PT will increase as the year goes on (as Woodson has done with all his rookies in the past) and a MPG average of 15-20 is probably reasonable. I’d expect a high A/TO ratio (1:1 or 1:75) with per game averages of 8-10 points and 4 assists.
Speedy Claxton: My biggest concern is that the Hawks brass will mandate playing Speedy due to his contract. A decent PG, he is injured too frequently to rely on and not a good enough passer or defender (as he is no longer “speedy”) to merit starting or first off the bench status. If Lue is traded or injured, Speedy will take up the starting role and I would expect similar numbers (maybe an uptick in points and downtick in assists).
Anthony Johnson: One of our best players (Josh Smith) doesn’t get along with him. We no longer need his “veteran” presence. He’ll be wearing a business suit for most games.

Shooting Guard: Anchored by All-Star (isn’t it great to read that!) Joe Johnson, this is obviously the strongest position for the Hawks. When Joe isn’t in look for Law and Stoudamire to team in the back court so that Law can guard the opponents SG and Salim can take the PG. Claxton and Law will also likely see some time at SG when Joe needs a breather.
Joe Johnson: Another year of being the go-to scorer and another offseason of developing his game can only serve to benefit Joe and the Hawks. A good passer, the development of the younger players should also boost his overall numbers. It’s not unreasonable to expect a slight increase in PPG as he enters his prime. I’m guessing somewhere around 26.5 ppg, 5 APG, 5 RPG while playing a ton of minutes.
Josh Childress: While better at the 3, Childress sees time at both the 2 and 3 as he is the quintessential 6th man. Childress is first off the bench in just about every game and stands to see his numbers improve with steadier PG play as his primary offensive asset is his ability to cut to the basket from the baseline. Without being hampered by the foot injury that bothered him all last season, an increase in PPG and definitely RPG can be expected. Getting up to 15 ppg and 7.5 rpg should make him a contender for 6th man of the year (as he was prior to his injury last year).
Salim Stoudamire: A streaky shooter with a Napoleon complex, he’s an asset to a team that can put the ball down low and kick out to the three point line. Unfortunately, we don’t have the post presence yet to get him the open looks. As Joe’s primary backup, he won’t get many minutes anyway. His dislike for the coaches may result in a midseason trade, especially if Law develops quickly. I actually anticipate a decrease in numbers this year with the addition of Law and a healthy Speedy. Expect around 6 ppg and an unhappy Salim or as part of a package with Lue to Phoenix or Cleveland.

Forwards: I’m not listing them separately because the forward situation is strange. Marvin and Josh Smith can play the 3 or the 4. Personally, I’d play Smith at the 4 to take advantage of his leaping and better post ability and put Marvin on the wing where his shooting and size can overwhelm smaller defenders. But Woodson did the opposite last year. Perhaps they think Marvin is going to grow into his body a bit more and fill out with more strength than Josh. I’m not sure. Childress will obviously see time at the 3, the rundown on him was detailed in the SG section.
Josh Smith: Having a better PG is pivotal to the development of Smith. His primary attribute is his athleticism and a good PG can take advantage of that by putting him in a position to score with more ease. His rebounding should improve slightly with another year under his belt and I can’t image his shot blocking not improving as well. He’ll be the second most efficient player behind Joe and should average close to 19ppg, 9 rpg, 3bpg.
Marvin Williams: The hand injury seemed to derail his first half and it wasn’t until the second half where we started to see flashes of his potential. With a clean, easy shot, developing confidence and increased range, he can stretch the defense and shoot over top of them. Still not a good rebounder or defender, the hope is that a summer of post work will make him more well-rounded. Even a marginal increase in offense puts him at 15 ppg, and as long as he plays with energy on the boards his size can net him 5-6 rpg.
Shelden Williams: He was miscast as a shot-blocker and post presence in the draft and for the first half of last season. What he can provide is fouls (which are important in a league where we’ll see KG, Howard, and Shaq frequently) and energy off the bench. Numbers for Shelden aren’t terribly important (or at least, they shouldn’t be). Sure, he can pop a 15 foot jumper now and again and pick up some boards but ideally he’ll get his 10-15 mpg spelling the other bigs and wearing down the opponent. Ever(y) team needs one of those guys.

Center: Hopefully Zaza and Horford will split minutes by the end of the season. While undersized, Horford is a more well rounded player, with a more skilled post game as well as being a much better rebounder and a defender capable of handling bigger/taller players. The only advantage Zaza really has at this point is having in-game experience, which Coach Woodson values greatly.
Zaza Pachulia: He’s pretty much reached his potential, which is a solid backup C able to put the ball in the basket and grab some offensive rebounds. His overall numbers will probably decrease a little with the addition of Horford and Zaza’s return to something more typical for his ability. He should end up at around 10-11 ppg and 6-7 rpg. Defensively he’s gotten slightly better, but that’s not saying a whole lot as his still has no vertical leap to speak of which precludes him from being a strong finisher at the rim.
Al Horford: He’ll get better as the season progresses. His offensive ability, drive, leadership, and winning mentality are exactly what the Hawks need. His rebounding might suffer a little as he gets accustomed to the physical nature of the Center position in the NBA, but I don’t think it’s out of line to expect about 10-12 ppg.
Lorenzen Wright/Solomon Jones: They are both just here for the ride. Lorenzen is more of an asset in practice to help mold Horford while Solomon is still a project as he still needs to add strength/weight to be productive.

Barring injury, the Hawks could very well see Johnson and Josh Smith recognized as all-stars, Childress as 6th man, and Horford as rookie of the year.

Overall, this team is built for a style more akin to the Suns than the Pistons, but Woodson knows how to coach a team like the Pistons. It’ll be interesting to see if the coaches decide to adapt their strategy to fit the talent and run an up and down game instead of a more deliberate pace. That could be the difference between an okay year and a good year.
The beauty about a young team like the Hawks is that as they all develop together, and they can make big strides from year to year. This should be year one in a line of playoff runs. I don’t think it’s out of line to anticipate just under 35-40 wins, which would put them between 7-8th in the playoffs. Depending on the match up they might be able to sneak out a first round win, but it will take another year of experience before we can really make a push for the conference or NBA finals.

Additionally, a couple of major developments could and hopefully will come off the court. Contract extensions for the Josh’s must be agreed upon by November or each will be able to test unrestricted free agency. The ability to sign both players largely hinges on the big issue: the ongoing legal battle for custody of the Hawks. My hope is that the NBA steps in (as it should have a long time ago) to help resolve the ownership situation and enable the Hawks to become less restricted in their operation.

I will say that the expectations above aren't necessarily the "best case scenario" but they are pretty high hopes for me for the club. I don't think that they are completely unreasonable and certainly close to achievable especially if the rumors of how hard the team worked out and worked together in the offseason are true. I know I'll be watching them even more with the Falcons semi-toast already.

Monday, October 1, 2007

Falcons quick recap

I'm sure all the pundits were hoping Schaub would ride into town and rip apart Atlanta's secondary so they could all say "I told you so". Well, he didn't. Other than throwing a bomb over Lewis Sanders (who looked like he was still playing for the Texans), Schaub wasn't really all that effective. His numbers don't tell the whole story. All afternoon he looked content to dump the ball off to his tight end for short gains, really not moving the chains all that efficiently. Overall, he was clearly outplayed by JJ Harrington.

Harrington, on the other hand, looked a lot more relaxed. He seemed to focus on getting the ball out and letting the recievers do the work really seemed to give him confidence. Crumpler was bowling folks over and Jenkins did his best Cris Carter impression. Dunn did his best Thomas Brown impression while trying to hold off the young speedster one more week.

The media coverage sucked the teet of the Texans all afternoon discussing how "banged up" they were. Look, missing Andre Johnson is a big deal. Missing Ahman Green in 2002 is a big deal, but this is 2007. He doesn't matter anymore. The Falcons were missing their #1 and #3 DTs, they played a rookie 6th round draft pick all game and got good production from him. Another rookie, Stephen Nicholas (4th round pick from USF) got a good amount of playing time and showed the rare (for a Falcon LB) ability to both swarm to the ball AND take down the ball carrier.

Overall, the Falcons played a pretty complete game. I think Hall sitting during the first quarter combined with watching his replacement give up a long TD put things in perspective for him. He shut down Davis after that (not exactly a challenge) and we didn't see much of him all game (which is what you want out of your CB, I never want to see them on camera because it means they're getting thrown at.) I saw way too much of Lewis Sanders, however. I think the seat he's been keeping warm for Houston is warm enough. I can't see how putting Houston out there will make us any worse off, and it will only improve us in the long run.


We don't need the Brohm watch, but here it is anyway. He had an easy week vs. NC State, going 20/33, 250yds 1td/1Int. For the year he has completed 322/482 (67%) of his passes for 4675 yards and 16 TD against just 4 INTs.

Friday, September 28, 2007

Summer Holliday (I can write witty titles like ESPN.com, too)

There’s less than 2% of the 2007 MLB season remaining which means it’s the appropriate time to start predicting awards. For the most part the frontrunners are pretty straightforward. With one huge exception—NL MVP. Before I open that can of worms (has anyone actually ever SEEN a can of worms?) I’ll run down the other major awards.

Manager of the Year—
AL: Eric Wedge
Why? His team is going to win arguably the hardest division in the majors by 7 games. His two best hitters (Hafner and Sizemore) endured sub par years. His closer sports a 5+ ERA. Additionally, he has his team hitting on all cylinders at the right time
Runner-Up: Post All-Star Joe Torre. Getting the shaky staring pitching and bullpen to come around is the main key for the turnaround of the team.

NL: Bob Melvin.
Why? Melvin took the youngest team, with question marks all over the field and still was able to field a playoff team (despite the strangest run differential I’ve ever seen in a playoff team. It sits at -9 right now).
Runner-Up: Ned Yost. He’ll take a lot of heat but no one expected them to contend like this. Consider that their Ace spent most of the year on the shelf (comma) and their former innings eater led them to a 0-21 record in his last 21 appearances.


Rookie of the Year—
AL: Brian Bannister
Why? Unlike Manager of the Year and MVP, the rookie of the year should simply be the best rookie performance over the entire season. Bannister was a huge life preserver for the Royals. At 12-8 with a 3.46 ERA, he was the best rookie pitcher and could have won 17-20 games on a decent offensive club. Plus, the Royals need some love, right?
Runner Up: Anyone but Dice-K. I refuse to give my (imaginary) vote to someone from the Japanese League).

NL: Ryan Braun.
Why? Pence and Tulowitzki are good players, but Braun is having a ridiculous rookie year. His numbers over a full season project to .330 57HR 150RBI. Enough said.
Runner Up: Tulowitzki because he’s on a contender and plays stellar defense.


Cy Young:
AL: CC Sabathia
Why? He dominated the best pitcher in the league (Johan) 4 times in one season (Johan Santana) and is top 5 in wins, K’s WHIP, complete games, ERA, and IP AND his team made the playoffs.

NL: Jake Peavy
Why? He’s the best pitcher in his league and no one really debates that. Every night out this season was a chance at history. He stuck out 10 batters 9 times this year. Oh, and he’s first in W, K, WHIP, and ERA.


MVP:
AL: Alex Rodriguez
Why? Seriously? I have to answer that. There’s no debate.
Runner Up: Magglio Ordonez is having an MVP caliber year, if that year were any number other than 2007.

NL: Matt Holliday
Why? I don’t care what his home/road splits are. Most players hit better at home vs. on the road. That’s why it’s called “home-field advantage.” Besides, he plays his games as they are scheduled against the same major leaguers other teams face. His statistics are measured the same way as others, his production and impact should be valued similarly. He’s top 5 in BA HR, RBI, R, OPS, and Slugging. He’s carried his team down the stretch (September .356 12HR 27 RBI 27R) and through their current 11 game winning streak.
Runner Up: Jimmy Rollins. All due respect to Utley, Reyes, Fielder, Chipper (and no respect to David Wright—that dude can eat me) but Rollins has been the catalyst for the Phillies all season while Utley was hurt and Howard was swinging at everything in sight.


Polish Your Resume Award (worst manager of the year)
AL: Ozzie Guillen
Why? This team was incredibly talented and just 2 years shy of the World Series. Ozzie managed to run his pitchers into the ground and cause his entire lineup to slump with his endless prodding.

NL: Willie Randolph
Why? Because it’s funny to watch a team fall apart—unless you’re the manager. Randolph’s team should have put the finishing touches on the division a month ago but his inability to get his offense rolling and his bullpen together is going to cost them the division. And it’s been great!


He gets paid WHAT? (worst player of the year)
AL: J.D. Drew
Why? Can’t we just use “because he is J.D. Drew?” No? I won’t rehash his numbers but lets say they teach you how to count to his HR and RBI total in Kindergarten (despite the obvious advantages of hitting a) in Fenway and b) in the Red Sox lineup. If he’s found dead after watching strike three for the fourth time in game 6 of the playoffs, put out an APB for Bill Simmons

NL: Mike Hampton.
Why? He’s now qualified to write a book entitled “How to make $30 million in two years without doing a goddamn thing.”

I’m not bitter at all.

Sunday, September 23, 2007

Thoughts on a hard fought loss

A couple of thoughts about the Falcons game (and telecast) while they're still fresh in my mind.

Why couldn't we see replays of any of the calls (facemasks, late hits, etc) until the second half? It seemed Fox was preoccupied with letting their announcers ramble rather than address the calls on the field.

On second thought, it's probably best the they didn't show some of the calls. This was one of the oddest officiated games I've ever witnessed. The refs couldn't decide whether to call everything (D. Halls hit to Smith's "head", the verbal sparring between the two) or to call nothing (Jenkins obliteration of Harrington that went uncalled). The unsportsmanlike conduct calls on both sides were ludicrous and at times it felt as though the referees wanted nothing more than a little face time. I sincerely hope the league reviews the calls and disciplines the officials accordingly.

On the bright side, Harrington looked much more poised and decisive and had a solid outing. He seemed more in command of the offense and not holding the ball eternally or looking immediately for the check down. Perhaps better route running by the WR aided him. Additionally, John Abraham must be looking for new endorsement deals because he played ridiculously well. The Cats were unable to keep him out of the backfield and he blew up several plays all on his own. Jamaal Anderson was quiet. Like studying in the library quiet. The O-Line played pretty well, good scheming kept Peppers from being a factor.

Kris Jenkins went out with his yearly injury.
Smith seemed to cramp, as always. He was held in check by Hall (other than one good PI call and two HORRIBLE other calls)
Delhomme's elbow got hurt without any contact. I call this the Mike Hampton.
Carr looked good in relief, handing off seamlessly to Foster repeatedly.

The real problem negatively was the linebacking corps. An incredibly fast group, they were constantly around the ball but unable to deliver the hits necessary to slow down, stop, or punish the ball carrier. Williams and Foster kept plowing through them as the game progressed. Brooking looked like a shell of his former self unable to bring down the ball carrier on multiple occasions. At this point maybe we should do him a favor and trade him to a team like the Colts who could use some help at LB (and get out from under his contract and get a decent draft pick in the process).

Our future QB did his part this weekend, putting up ridiculous numbers in a losing effort. 45-65 for 455 yds and a handful of TDs. As long as the Falcons keep losing, this might become a weekly segment--the Brian Brohm update. For the year he's at 68% completion, 1700 yds, 15td/3int and only sacked 4 times.



Oh, and Georgia heartbroke the Crimson Hefelumps. An incredible game, fought intensely on both sides. It was fun to watch and I felt pretty comfortable with Stafford getting the ball in OT (and having Coutu there to kick if needed).

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Braves pumped to sprint towards a 3rd place finish

The Braves sure picked a strange time to start making a run. After the mediocre first 11 games dropped the Braves well out of any reasonable playoff scenarios, they've pulled it together and won 4 of 5. Including a one run win and an extra inning win (both situations where we faltered all season long). Meanwhile the Mets are flailing about, allowing the Braves to pull within 6 with 11 to play.

I'm betting we'll continue this hot streak through the end of the season and finish 4 games shy of the playoffs. Wouldn't that be appropriate for this years team? Almost good enough, but not quite when it counted.

On the positive side, Chipper is leading the league in hitting with Renteria close behind (and if Young Renteria, I mean Escobar, had enough ABs he'd be in the top 10 as well). And JoJo Reyes looked much better (albeit against a Marlins team that doesn't seem too interested in playing right now).

On the negative side, Andruw looks like he is starting to heat up (to be fair, anything above .230 with 1K/game is "hot" for him). I guess he finally listened to *someone about his hitting (that someone likely being Boras, I imagine. Gas for those 20 cars Andruw owns is expensive, you know). Rumor is the Braves plan is to offer him arbitration and PRAY that someone signs him. (This would ensure the Braves get 2 supplemental picks in the draft). If no one signs him, he'll get somewhere around $15 mil for 2008. At least there's grumbling about increased payroll in 2008 (to $100 million). It was weird being the only team that hadn't increased their spending at all since 1997. I miss Ted Turner.


Speaking of 1997, I would like to address one lingering concern that's haunted me since then. What happened to our ability to develop pitchers? The last pitcher that we developed that did anything with us was Milwood. And it seemed he developed in spite of our coaching (he notoriously hated Mazzone). Every big time prospect we've brought up has been the same pitcher: 88-91 mph fastball, decent change, developing curve/slider, and terrible control. Davies, Marquis, James, Horacio, Reyes, Bruce Chen, Odalis Perez, Damian Moss. And that's only the SP. When you think about it, really, aren't all these guys the same pitcher? I understand that 95 mph flamethrowers don't grow on trees and neither do control pitchers. But to not have ANY of EITHER over the past decade seems a bit strange. Part of the problem, I think, is that the Braves scouts have had incredible success at drafting/developing position players (at everywhere other than 1B). There isn't going to be turnover in the scouting department while they are successfully so incredibly in the positional department. I'm not asking for another Smoltz, Glavine, even Millwood. But maybe a Paul Byrd. Is that too much to ask?

Thursday, September 13, 2007

This is probably redundant, but Jeff Schultz is an idiot.

"One simple rule of football: When a quarterback can't throw and a receiver can't catch and a coach seemingly can't see, it's amazing what knocking somebody on their butt will accomplish"--Jeff Schultz in today's blog on ajc.com. I'd link it, but I honestly think it's one of the most ridiculous pieces of self-promotion I've read in a long time. If you want to read it, find it yourself.

Schultz goes on to state that the "real" reason for the Dawgs loss to USC was not due to poor catching, tackling, missed blocks, or misreading the defense. No, it's because he lacks the verbal equivalent of a "forearm shiver."

Reading this makes it abundantly clear that Schultz must never have played organized sports, and makes me wonder if he remembers what it was like to be a 20 year old male. I've played, captained, and in some facet coached numerous players ranging in age from 18-30. Every season I ask for feedback on what I can improve upon to make the next season better. Every season a few players mention a time when I got particularly animated and they remind me that no one likes to be yelled at and it rarely makes them execute any better. So every season I work more and more at dulling my temper and trying to motivate them in other ways--for the team, for your pride, self-improvement. All of these garner better results in my experience. Yet Schultz seems to imply that a little "Bobby Knight" is necessary to get Mikey Morris to catch a pass.

By arguing this, Schultz is looking past one of the major differences between the professional game and the collegiate game: these are kids, they are new to the college life, and they are combining an educational calendar with grueling practices and playbook memorization. He is forgetting that these are young men. They need molding in ways other than just on the field. We hear it all the time, these young men look to their coaches as surrogate father figures. The players are pulled from their familial supports and placed in the difficult life of academics and athletics. Do they need discipline and leadership? Of course, but as the old saying goes "you'll attract more flies with honey than vinegar." That isn't to suggest coddling the players by any means. Simply, treat them as young men and respond accordingly to their behavior.

Richt is keenly aware of his role and the image he portrays for the university. "Because I'm the face of the program, I'm not usually screaming in anybody's ear very often," Richt said. "Sometimes I do. There are some choice times in the locker room or in practice that people don't normally see." That, to me, sounds like a coach who isn't going to berate some kid while the camera is on so that pundits like Schultz can say "see, there's a coach who cares!" He's going to manage his program in a way that develops the kids in more than just football.

Schultz seems to dismiss that a portion of success in any sport isn't due to just being talented or prepared, it has to do with being confident as well. Thinking that the coaches need to berate the players to improve their play doesn't just go against normal ideas of how to motivate people, it actually precludes the players from improving and playing better.

Schultz goes on to state that UGA lost despite being the better team because of this coaching "error." Nevermind the fact that their quarterback had 3 more years experience than ours, that their offensive and defensive lines weren't playing their 2nd games with new starters. It's not a coincidence that many prognosticators picked USC as an upset pick for the SEC East this year. It's because they saw experience on both sides of the ball, and that experience typically lends itself to a higher quality of play--especially early in the season when the young players on other teams are still getting acclimated to the league and to one another.

It's embarrasing that our local columnist can't recognize good coaching and even better leadership when he sees it. It's even more embarrasing when he goes on to extoll the virtues of yelling at players instead of treating them like young, developing men. Can a coach succeed without delivering that "forearm shiver"? No, says Jeff Schultz. I disagree and cite Tony Dungy, Jim Tressell, Mack Brown, Bobby Cox, and a host of other current and former coaches as my evidence.

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Braves Haikus

This season was toast
long before they cleated up
damn you, Mike Hampton!

Starts three, four, and five
each week are sold on Ebay.
At least, it looks it.

Harris remembered
that he is actually
just Willie Harris.

Frenchie takes a walk?
Too bad Andruw "hits" behind
One more left on base.

Hitting three fifty?
Diaz sits versus righties?
I got your platoon!

"Utility" means
Sucking all over the field
Thank you, Chris Woodward.

Bye, Renteria.
A younger version of you:
Yunel Escobar.

For Kelly Johnson
I have nothing bad to say,
pretty eyelashes.

Injuries slow Mac
Third year in a row, he is
Second-half monster.

A lot of vowels
Saltalamacchia gone,
Teixiera's a stud.

A full year of Chip?
No longer made of Balsa.
Still not quite enough.

Wickman's mouth too big
talked and ate his way off mound
And out of the south.

Crafting A Winner

I'm posting this now so I don't look like a revisionist historian later and before the national (and local) media jumps off the Harrington bandwagon (and on the Schaub train).

I don't care if we go 0-16, trading Matt Schaub was the right thing to do! I liked Matt Schaub. I think he'll be a decent starting QB. But I think we learned from the Vick draft pick trade that you always turn 1 unknown into 2 unknowns if you have the opportunity. Especially if there are suitable replacements for what you are giving up.

I can understand the rationale for keeping Schaub if there was going to be continuity in either leadership or scheme. Especially in regards to scheme. Part of why many scouts were high on Schaub was because how he "looked" in our "west coast" offense. He had been in this type of offense for 7 years (4 in college, 3 in the pros). This type offense suited his large frame (6'5") and his arm (accurate but not incredibly strong). He is a great fit for an offense looking to take a three step drop and pitch the ball 5-15 yards. However, Petrino's offense requires more shotgun, 5-7 step drops, deep throws, and even some mobility (to run stretch plays, rollouts, etc). Additionally, the new staff was going to have to teach Schaub this system. If you're going to have to teach someone new the position, why not bring in someone fresh and get assets for what you currently have (especially if that player would be leaving in a year anyway--or requiring a $40 million contract)?

This doesn't even take into account what the Falcons might have known regarding Vick and how tumultuous this season was going to be regardless of having Schaub. Really, isn't the difference for this year between Schaub and the guy replacing him (turns out to be Joey) arbitrary?

Here's the net result of the trade (and signing of Harrington which was a necessity of that trade)
Falcons lose: Matt Schaub (career 54% passing, 1/1 TD/INT ratio)
Falcons gain: Joey Harrington (career 55% passing, .94/1 TD/INT ratio)
Justin Blalock (future franchise LG)
approximate 45nd overall pick* (Sedrick Ellis DT USC, Jonathan Goff ILB Vandy,
Quentin Demps S UTEP)
a 2 spot upgrade in 07 draft. Allowing us to get Jamaal Anderson
(who reminds me of Jevon Kearse without all the injuries) $40,000,000 less of a risk put into one player.

In the end, we'll end up with a franchise LG, a starting S, and we'll end up with someone else at QB (Brohm? Brennan? Henne?). I like all of those options more than Schaub. I think the Chargers proved that 1 player is never *that* big of an upgrade over 2 top 50 picks. I'll gladly take the picks, one year of struggling, and move forward better equipped for the future.


* derived from my guess of where Houston will finish. This would put them at about 7-9 using last years final results.

Petrino reads my blog, makes changes, doesn't offer me a job. . .

http://www.ajc.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/ajc/falcons/entries/2007/09/10/more_work_for_n.html

Monday, September 10, 2007

Put Me In, Coach! I'm Ready To Play!

Examples 1a. and 1b. were present this weekend in the form of Dawgs/Falcons vs. Cocks/Vikes.
Richt and Petrino both stubbornly decided to continue force feeding their veteran RBs coming off of injuries instead of trying something different--until it was too late. Thomas Brown (12/49) and Warrick Dunn (22/55) were bottled up, pushed back, strung out, and tripped all through the first half. So what do the coaches do? Keep plugging away. Only after both teams were behind by a TD or more do the coaches put in the young studs. And what do the studs do? Ramble for over 6 ypc each. (Moreno 14/104, Norwood 5/33). We heard all off-season about both young RBs and how much they had improved and that they'd see a bigger role on offense. Yet when game time comes, the vets are in there banging fruitlessly away while bigger talent pines on the pine.

I understand the desire for veteran leadership and a "been there, done that" trust. But at what point do teams that are admittedly developing (at best) turn to the future to enchance the skills of their players. I'll concede that it's different on a positional basis (as playing QB requires more maturity and study than, say, playing RB and hitting the hole) and that with some positions (like QB) there are inherent risks (confidence, injury) that could deter a coach, but if you're going to "put the team in the best position to win" shouldn't that necessitate putting the more skilled players on the field. Even if you risk mistakes, doesn't the reward outweigh that?

Similarly, if the argument is that you want players who are experienced, then why play the young players late in the game instead of early? Wouldn't it make more sense to play the vets in crunch time (once the defense has been loosened by the younger player)? What "experience" are the young players gaining by being out there in mop-up duty or trying to come from behind? I understand you have to earn the coaches trust, but at some point the talent outweighs the risk. Isn't that how Stafford ended up being starter? Let's hope the coaches see the same things that I saw this weekend and make some moves.

The Beginning

I've been coaxed to post my rantings and thoughts on sports here.
My disclaimers:
(1) I'll stick to mostly Atlanta sports. I'm a fanatic of the Dawgs, Braves, Falcons, and Hawks.
(2) I'll post on other sports topics as I find them interesting.
(3) I'll be irreverent at times. I'll try not to be offensive--and I'll fail.
(4) I'll try to respond to comments. But only logical and intelligent ones.
(5) If you have a good idea of a topic for me to cover, let me know. If I find it interesting, I'll do it.

new posts to come soon, I think...