Search This Blog

Monday, March 8, 2010

The Black Eye on Joe Johnson's Resume

So Joe Johnson is a great player. He's probably the third best shooting guard in the NBA behind only Kobe Bryant and Dwyane Wade. However, even the best players in the league have off shooting nights. The difference between Joe and many of the other stars in the league is that he doesn't get the to the free throw line.

Here are the average free throw attempts for the top 10 scorers: 10.1, 9.9, 9.8, 7.3, 9.0, 6.3, 7.3, 8.6, 7.2, and 3.5. Can you guess which one is Joe? The only other player below 7 free throws per game is the unconscionable gunner, Monta Ellis. In fact, you have to go down to the 29th highest scorer in the league, O.J. Mayo, before you find someone who averages fewer free throws per game.

If Joe averaged 7.5 free throws per game, which would put him right in the middle of the pack, that would add an average of 3.3 points per game since he's an 83.1% free throw shooter. What his low rate of free throws means, however, is that he cannot recover from a bad shooting night. If Joe is cold, his only option is to keep shooting and hope he starts making the shots. By contrast, the other players in the top 10 can put their head down and get to the free throw line.

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Why would Ilgauskas sign with the Atlanta Hawks?

We all know that the Wizards are going to buy out Zydrunas Ilgauskas. We all know the Cavaliers want to resign him once he gets bought out. Reports are that the Hawks are going to pursue Ilgauskas. I don't think there is any doubt that his addition would make the Hawks a better and deeper team. The question remains, however, as to why Ilgauskas would want to join the Hawks.

There are the surface reasons of why he would not sign: he's been with the Cavs his whole career, LeBron gives him a better chance to win a championship than the Hawks, he knows everyone on the Cavs, etc. I think there might be a deeper, and more troubling, reason why Ilgauskas would not sign with the Hawks: the example of Joe Smith.

Joe Smith drew the interest of several contenders this off-season to provide front court depth. One of the main reasons he signed with the Hawks, however, was the opportunity for more minutes. It certainly wasn't for the money since he is making the veteran's minimum. The Hawks only had three serviceable big men in the rotation and desperately needed the help. So how have the Hawks rewarded this choice? By playing him at least 10 minutes less per game than any other time in his career, excepting an 11-game stint with the Nuggets. I'm sure he's not exactly thrilled considering he averaged 19.6 minutes last year on a Cavs team that was better than this Hawks team.

Out of the 6 teams with a better record than the Hawks, here is an example of players who are playing more than Joe Smith: Brian Scalabrine, Shelden Williams, Kyle Korver, Ronnie Price, Joey Graham, Anthony Carter, Anthony Johnson, Josh Powell, and Jawad Williams... to name a few.

This is troubling because given the example this sets, why would any other older veteran want to sign with the Hawks after being waived or even in the offseason unless we offer them more money?

Monday, February 22, 2010

Cursed Red?

In honor of last night's loss to the Golden State Warriors, here is the stat of the day:

Record in blue road uniforms: 10-9
Record in red road uniforms: 3-5

Also interesting to note, the Hawks went back to the playoffs when they switched from the predominantly red road uniforms to the predominantly blue.

I'm not saying there's any causation here... I'm just saying.

UPDATE: After the Jazz game, the blue road unis are now 11-9.

Friday, February 19, 2010

Teague's Potential

I know it is very early in his career, and there is only a small sample size since he has only played a total of 447 minutes, but I was struck by Teague's steal totals so far. This was brought into focus on Tuesday, when Teague had 4 steals in 11 minutes against a Clippers team that had given up. Teague is averaging 2.43 steals per 40 minutes, which is rather impressive.

This look at his steals per 40 got me looking at the rest of his averages per 40. Along with his 2.43 steals, he is averaging 12.1 points, 7.2 assists, and 3.8 rebounds. These per 40 averages, along with Teague's size and athleticism reminded me of another point guard: Rajon Rondo. Rondo is averaging 15.2 points, 10.4 assists, and 4.8 rebounds to go with 2.7 steals per 40 minutes.

This probably makes Teague look like a poor man's Rondo, but let's compare Rondo's rookie stats to Teague's for this year.
Teague: 12.1, 7.2, 3.8, and 2.43 with 34.7% shooting
Rondo: 10.9, 6.5, 6.4, and 2.7 with 41.8% shooting
Now the statistics look a little more similar. Rondo is a better rebounder. They both had horrible shooting percentages, but I have more faith in Teague's shooting ability. For one thing he has an 87.1% free throw percentage compared to Rondo's career 62.6%. Further, Teague hit 80% of his free throws in college and 42% of his 3s in college. Rondo, comparatively, hit 57% and 28% respectively. So hopefully Teague will continue to develop and become a serviceable point guard for the Atlanta Hawks.

Personally I would like to see Woody do two things. First, encourage Teague to take open jump shots when he is on the floor. Teague was an aggressive scorer in college, but he looks way to deferential and, frankly, worried to shoot in his limited time on the court. A shooter has to fluidly catch and shoot in order to be effective. If concern enters their head during this process, it can throw off the timing of the shot. I believe this is what is keeping Teague's percentage down.

Second, I'd like to have Woody sit down with Teague before every game and give him a list of the guards that he is obviously than. If anyone on that list is guarding him, he has the green light to drive past him. This will help to get Teague into the flow of the offense, and also give the 2nd unit an offensive option outside of "Give the ball to Crawford".

But this is all coming from the guy who was calling for more minutes for Acie Law. So take it all with a grain of salt...