The Good Call Hawks

Scott Cunningham/NBAE/Getty Image

www.whatifsports.com is an absolutely incredible site. The website allows you to put together any players from any era on the same team and have them play against other dream teams, or against any regular team. For instance, you can have the '95-'96 Bulls play the '85-'86 Celtics to see who would win in a 7-game series.

Someone told me about the website about two years ago, and it killed my productivity at work. Luckily my work put up a firewall that does not allow me to visit the site anymore, but I have gone back to it recently. First, let me say that I love pretending that I am a GM for a team. I buy Madden merely to play around in Franchise mode. So I will be using the whatifsports website to perform an entertaining experiment.

I will be stepping into a time machine and traveling back to June 24, 2004, the date of the 2004 NBA Draft, and assuming the role of GM for the Atlanta Hawks. The reason I chose the 2004 draft is that it was the first draft after Billy Knight started the full-on tanking of the Atlanta Hawks in order to get some high draft choices. From there, I will assume the role of GM and control the destiny of the Atlanta Hawks with the full knowledge of the future of every NBA player.

A few rules to try and make this as realistic as possible, avoid pure speculation, and a few time-saving tweaks. I know that every move I change would have a domino effect on every other team, but to ensure that I make it to work every day, I'm not going to change every team accordingly. This will mean that players will play against themselves. For instance, I would take Andre Igoudala over Josh Childress with the 6th pick of the 2004 NBA draft. That means anytime the Good Call Hawks play the Sixers, it will be Iggy vs. Iggy.

Also, I'm not going to go through the schedule and simulate every game in order. To simplify, I'm just going to simulate a home and road game against every team. This will give a 58 game sample size. From there, I will figure out how many wins that equals in a 82 games season. This will probably skew the Hawks win total a little low most years since the West was much better than the east, and the Hawks play more games against the east, but I'm willing to live with that.

As for trades, I will only either approve or veto the trades made by the Hawks. For instance, I will probably approve the Joe Johnson trade, but veto the Anthony Johnson trade from the '06-'07 trade. Similarly, if I no longer have the players from the Hawks that were traded, I will say it is vetoed unless the missing player was inconsequential. I'm not going to step into pure speculation and try to swing trades that never occurred. There are too many factors to try and consider and there is no telling if the other GM would pull the trigger.

As for free agents, I'm going to make a rule that I can't change the length or size of the contract. For instance, come 2010, I have to either take or leave Joe Johnson's contract. I'm not going to speculate that he would be willing to take less money due to his new teammates. Also, I'm not going to just give the Hawks every good free agent. If the signing makes sense for both sides and I think the player would take the deal, fine. However, I will veto free agent signings that make no sense (i.e. Speedy Claxton).

I don't know about you, but I'm excited! Monday is the 2004 offseason!

Downside of NBA League Pass

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/6534/ivan-johnson

You have to listen to the home announcers for every game. I just finished watching the Hawks-Spurs game last night and the Spurs announcers were more like cheerleaders. I could feel my blood pressure rising.

Plus Sean Elliott clearly had not researched the Hawks this year. In critiquing Ivan Johnson's pick-and-roll defense, Elliott was making several valid points about how he shows for too long leaving the defense vulnerable to a quick pass to the big men. In making those points, however, Elliott attempted to contrast the age and experience of Tiago Splitter with the youth and inexperience of Ivan Johnson. This seemed odd since the two players are the same age (27). It became even worse when he kept saying that Ivan was fresh out of college while Splitter had international experience despite the fact that Ivan last played in college in 2007 and not only played in the D-League, but placed 3rd in the MVP voting last year.

Sean, it ruins your perfectly good critique when you don't have the right facts. It's like going to a great concert and having the fire alarm go off.

Hawks Schedule: Will they drop off?

http://idcf.tumblr.com/

One of my favorite articles on Peachtree Hoops is the weekly round-up of power rankings. Some commenters like to search for any slight against the Hawks to rage against the national media, but I like to get a quick glimpse of what other sports writers think of the Hawks. The consensus this past week was that most people were surprised the Hawks did not immediately fall apart without Horford, but that they will fall back in their record as the season goes on.

Normally, this would be a perfectly valid analysis that has been true for Atlanta for the last 4-5 years. This year, however, there are a couple of factors that clearly play out in Atlanta's favor in the regular season. The first is that the Hawks actually have a decent amount of depth that will serve them well in the condensed season. Teams cannot afford to play their starters almost 40 minutes a night and expect them to not break down. With the veteran additions to the bench, Drew has done a commendable job of keeping everyone fresh. He still leans on Joe a little too much for my liking, but his 36.2 minutes per game is below his average from 2003-2010 when he was regularly flirting with 40 minutes per game.

The second reason the Hawks' record will not fall back too much is the fact that they have fewer games against the West this year. The West is a bruising collection of good team after good team after good team. There are two divisions right now with only one team with a losing record. The Timberwolves are the worst team in the Northwest Division and they are 8-10. The East, on the other hand, is top heavy. There are six teams with at least 12 wins, and everyone else has 7 or less wins right now. By my count, the Hawks have 25 games remaining against teams that are .500 and under. While I don't think the Hawks will maintain their 10-0 record against these teams (especially since Boston and the Knicks are included), I also don't think it is unreasonable to expect a 17-8 record in those 25 games. The remaining 22 games are against teams above .500. Right now, the Hawks are 3-6 against those teams. Even if they maintain that pace, they will go 7-15.

This would leave the Hawks at the end of the season with a record of 37-29. Thus, if nothing goes horribly wrong or horribly right, the Hawks will compete for home court advantage in the first round. I wouldn't call that dropping off at all.

Atlanta's Fast Break

Photo: Jeffrey Phelps / AP

For years everyone has commented on the fact that Atlanta has the wing and post players to run a very effective fast break. Josh and Al (even with a torn pec muscle) can outrun 99% of the 4s and 5s in the league. Marvin can get out and run, and Joe should know how to run the break from his days in Phoenix.

However, the Hawks never had anyone to start the break. Bibby was too old and slow and Joe does everything in smoothly (aka in slow motion). This combined with the fact that both Woody and Drew preach grinding out every possession resulted in the following pace rankings from the 2006-2007 on: 21st, 19th, 24th, 27th, and 27th. Now that Teague has finally been given the reigns as the starting PG, you can start to see the Hawks starting to want to run a little bit more. The problem is this: they have no clue how to run an effective fast break.

Last night Marvin was dribbling down the court after a steal with two defenders in front of him. Josh was actually sprinting down the court on the right wing (instead of his usual trot), because the defender on the right wing was Brandon Jennings. I'm sure every Hawks fan was thinking this would be an easy lob. Instead, Marvin puts his head down and tries to bull his way to the basket. He luckily got the foul call, but instead of an easy lob and dunk he has to get his points from the free throw line. This is but one of many examples of how the Hawks are missing out on easy points night after night. I'm not saying the Hawks should become the Nuggets of the East, but there is no reason they should be squandering so many chances for easy points.

Even worse, every time a play like Marvin's happens, it discourages Josh from running the court and encourages him to try and run the break. Ideally, Josh should be looking to get the ball to Teague as quickly as possible and then sprinting down a wing looking for a lob. Additionally, Teague needs to stop waiting for everyone and just take off. So many times he could simply run past the plodding big men of the other team and get an easy layup. There were several times last night when Teague slowly dribbled the ball up the court, allowing Bogut time to get entrenched in the lane, before trying to drive the lane.

As much as I think Brandon Jennings shoots too much, Teague could take a lesson from Jennings' second half performance. He was in attack mode after every missed Hawks shot. At that point he could either dish for the assist, hit the layup because our big men were being slow, or circle around and dribble the ball back out. The more Teague attacks, the more the rest of the team is going to run with him. This is especially true if he sets up some lobs for Josh.

Everyone loves lobs...

How my Fanhood has been Saved

Between NBA League Pass and DVR, I have been able to rededicate myself to the Hawks this season. I have not had time to consistently sit down and watch an entire games for many a year. Part of this comes from having a wife who does not watch sports, and the other part comes from moving to Jacksonville. Plus, as I get older I simply do not have 2 1/2 hours I can use for a basketball on a consistent basis. Thus, I was forced to look at box scores and highlights on nba.com.

Now, however, the magic of the DVR can compress the average NBA game into a viewing experience of a little over an hour. Less if you fast-forward through free throws. Further, I finally sprung for NBA League Pass instead of only watching the nationally televised games and the games against the Magic and the Heat. This means that I now have lots of opinions about the Hawks and no one in Jacksonville to talk to them about, and, thus, the rebirth of my outlet for said opinions.

I know you're as excited as I am. And by you, I mean the people reading this. And by the people reading this, I mean me.