Incoming Heat Excuses

Game 5 will be played tonight @ The Highlight Factory. So far the only trend I have noticed in the series is that we win the games I watch live (1 and 4) and lose those I DVR (2 and 3). I'm hoping for a streak breaker tonight because I will not be watching the game live (free tickets to see the Braves take on the Cards will do that to you).

So far this has been a series of extremes with no team losing by closer than 10 points. At some point a close game is going to have to happen and I think that it is tonight.

While Wade is likely not as injured as he is pretending to be, I don't doubt that his back (and other assorted parts) are still dinged up. This will result in less playing time and hopefully a few spurts on defense by the Hawks where they really slow the Heat offense down. The Hawks need to (and I think will) push Wade around a little and make it too painful to come into the paint. ZaZa, I'm looking at you.

The officials are likely not going to be as "aware" as they were during game 4. There's ticky-tack and then there is just plain whistle happy. Slowing down the game with 50+ fouls called will always benefit the Heat--they are accustomed to this pace. The Hawks, however, need to keep the ball and clock moving to be most effective. I just can't imagine a scenario where there are that many fouls called again @ home. (game 6 may be another story)

Josh Smith will be the energizer bunny again. He turns it on when the crowd is into it and the crowd is going to be into it. My guess is another 22 pts 13 reb 3 ast 4 block type of night.

Joe will pull it together and have a scoring streak. I'm not the type to look up stats but I watched probably 85% of the games this year and can't remember such a dry spell for Joe over 5 straight games. He will connect from deep a couple of times early and open up some space in the lane. The Heat have been letting him have the 3 so far and really crowding the paint, that will come back to bite them with 3s early and floaters late.

Our bench scoring will actually score. Similar to Joe, our bench was the model of consistency this season. While "Hot Flip" hasn't appeared so far this series he also hasn't exactly been needed. We'll need him in a close game and I say he shows up. Hot Flip!

JO will not keep playing at this level. I don't think he slows down tonight, but mark it down for a game 6 or 7 collapse.

Overall I think our shooters will start hitting shots from the perimeter and that'll open up the lane for more floaters, drives, and kicks. The Heat are going to come with everything they have but those few extra minutes Wade has to miss because his back hurts from carrying the team will be the difference. We'll get ahead by 5-10 and hold them off.

Final Score: Hawks 86 Heat 81

Dear Woody

How young can you be and still sound senile:

"We’re right where we need to be. We just have to figure out [Monday] night’s game."

This was a direct quote from Woodson after the players called a players-only meeting on Sunday. I'm glad it was a players-only meeting. Apparently, getting blown out in back to back games both at home and on the road is the proper positioning for playoff success.

I can only assume that by "right where we need to be" he meant solely in a geographic sense. As in, we are in Miami near the arena and the game is in Miami at the arena. So we are "right where we need to be."

And as far as "figur(ing) out [Monday] night's game" he must mean discerning the tipoff time.

I don't want to lose this playoff series but I fear if we win we're stuck with him forever. Can't I have the win and a new coach next year?

Game 4 Predictions

I should really name this post "How you can talk yourself into not giving up on the Hawks", or "Despite the draft, it's not time for football yet."

So Saturday's game was horrific to the point that I had to turn away. I kept coming back only change channels when the score came up. After the tough loss in Game 2 and the slaughter in Game 3, it would be easy to shovel the dirt on the Hawks. But here's the optimistic points to keep telling yourself tonight.

The Heat cannot keep shooting this well. Before Game 2 I said that they could not keep shooting that poorly, and man was I ever right. Now I'm going to tell you that they cannot continue to keep shooting this well. For the season they shot 35.7% for 3-point range. In the last two games they have shot 57.7% and 52.2% respectively, despite most of the shots being contested. If they average 20 3-pointers a game, then they are hitting an extra 4 3s a game. I've heard of players turning it on for the playoffs, but teams? Not likely. Wade will get his, we just have to keep the defensive rotations crisp on all the role players and the percentages will come down... I just hope it is tonight.

The Heat will not get 12 blocks again. Good Lord did they come out like gangbusters on defense. Wade will ensure they come out with intensity and hustle tonight as well, but if we can respond to some of their punches early (instead of missing 17 of our first 19 shots), then that should take some of the wind out of their sails.

I would say that the Hawks will use less of the one-on-one offense, but they've done it all year, so why would Woody stop now?

So my prediction is that the Hawks will actually be in Game 4. They had a players only team meeting on Sunday (I take heart in this because I don't think Woody can do a lick of good), and they have the history of coming back from an 0-2 deficit last year against a better team than the Heat.

Unfortunately I think they will lose. They have not won a road playoff game in over a decade, and considering the effort they put forth in Game 3, I don't see that changing. They simply do not have the leadership to drag the team through a road playoff game. This is evidenced by a 16-25 road record during the regular season. To pull out a road playoff game you need a performance like Wade gave the Heat in Game 2. A "screw this, we are not losing" performance. And I just don't see anyone on the Hawks roster who can deliver that. Joe has only ever done it at home.

Hawks 90, Heat 98

Game 3 Prediction

I know it's too late and the ass whooping has already been doled out. But it was my job to put up the game 3 prediction and I got overwhelmed with other things.

Here are things I could not have predicted:

Joe Johnson shooting like Don Johnson
Woody ordering more subs than Jared Fogel.
Jermaine O'Neal re-resurging.
Bibby and Joe having more TOs than Assists.
No player hitting more than 5 field goals for the Hawks.

Overall it was a terrible beating. The only good part is that I had prior plans that precluded me from watching it live and forcing me to promptly delete it from my DVR upon arrival home.

I didn't really think we had a chance of winning the first game in Miami. Friday and Saturday nights lend themselves to the best crowds and combining that with the Miami locale and I figured it would be bonkers at the AAA. I was right in that regard. However, I figured we could feed (like a pro-wrestler) on the noise a little and hang with them. I was wrong in that regard.

I also figured we'd slow down their 3 point shooting a little bit. We did not do that either, to the tune of 52%. You have to keep a team under 35% (in my opinion) to be successful. 52% is just ridiculous. Combine that with 19-19 on FTs and their true shooting % has to be astronomical. I'm too lazy to calculate it, but any time a team hits 47% from the field 52% from 3pt and 100% at the line you can be pretty confident they are going to win.

There isn't much to take away from this game other than that we need to defend the 3 ball, hit more shots, and man up in the post. They seem like simple enough things. We shall see, I guess.

Game Two Prediction

But first, some quick notes about Game 1:
- I thought I was going to kill Josh at the beginning of the game. He came out firing two jump shots and just looking confused on defensive rotations, once giving up a wide open 3. Luckily he got his head on straight and attacked the rim. I think he was inspired by Wade...
- Did Wade give up on the game in the second half ala Kobe a couple of years ago? I mean it looked like Wade was purposefully not shooting in the third quarter to try and show a national audience just how bad his supporting cast was.
- Wade knows that Zaza has no chance at blocking his shot. Anytime Zaza was the help defender, Wade looked to dunk all over him.

Now onto Game 2. Here are some predictions I am quite confident of.
- Josh will not get 9 buckets in the paint. The Miami big men just gave up. If they do that again, I can't see them and/or the coach staying on the team for long. I think the Heat will go to a smaller, more athletic lineup for Game 2. Josh and Al do not have very developed post games, so having O'Neal in the game is not an advantage.
- The Heat will not go 4 for 23 from 3. The Hawks played good interior D because we could slack off the 3-point shooters. It will be tougher to pack all the defenders into the paint when the 3s are falling. However, the Hawks must continue to make it difficult for the Heat guards to penetrate, otherwise they will get killed. There is no way the Heat can beat us for more than one game relying solely on jumpers. So keep packing it in.
- Someone other than Wade will score more than 10 points for the Heat. They have to, don't they?

While the Heat will perform better in Game 2 than the embarrassing Game 1 loss, I think their deficiencies and inexperience are too much for the raucous Phillips Arena environment (feels good to type that).

Hawks 95, Heat 84

How to Predict A Victory With A Blown Mind

Blah blah blah, a host of excuses go out to our 11 readers (Hi Mom!) as to why there haven’t been many posts lately. But, my friends, here is the good news:
Daniel and I are making a commitment to blog about the Hawks playoff run. We won’t be predicting “Hawks in 6” or anything. Rather we will just preview each game as it comes and predict a winner for that game. Honestly, game by game will be a better way to preview and anyone who knows us, knows that we tend towards optimism when it comes to our feathered friends.

I get to talk about Game Win, I mean One happening Sunday. As 'Nique would say “I already shot my wad” with the previous sentence. I’m reasonably confident in the Hawks ability to win Game 1. My rationale in list format:

--We play better when we play confident. After winning at home in the playoffs and taking the 4th seed, we are brimming with confidence.

--We play great at home. Everyone knows this and it plays into the point above. Atlanta fans have been better lately at showing up for big games and certainly this is one.

--It’s going to take more than 1 game for the Hawks to get frustrated by the “Wade calls” and I bet there are fewer “Wade calls” by the refs in order to be able to claim impartiality. I’m dubious that it will last, but for game 1 I think we’re okay.

--While it will take a lot of energy to slow down Wade, we have two people capable of doing so: Joe and Mo will be rested and ready to slow Wade down. Conversely, there isn’t a defender on the Heat that worries me immensely against Joe, especially a rested Joe.

--Bibby looked tired as the season wore on but a week off will have done him good. He’ll drain at least 3 3s. Defensively, Chalmers doesn’t have the ability to break Bibby down the way the other quick point guards have all season.

--Bibby is also savvy enough to get Chalmers into foul trouble, which will put Chris Quinn on the floor. This is a good thing for the Hawks.

--Jermaine O’Neal and Jamaal Maglore are old. JO has aged in dog years over the last 3 season and looks to be about 57. Combine the energy of the home crowd with that of Smoove and “The Boss” Horford and O’Neal/Jamaal will be gassed early.

--Beasley will be shaky and commit some stupid turnovers and/or fouls. He will get frustrated. He may even get T’d up. He reminds me a LOT of Josh Smith and when things don’t go his way he tends to give up. He’ll give up early.

It is likely the Hawks will do their normal routine of getting down in the first quarter, bringing it closer in the second, playing even or worse in the third and pulling away in the 4th. Wade won’t let them get down by a ton but with about 8 mins to go in the 4th the Hawks will have the game in control and will work out the victory (something they have been improving at towards the end of the season).

Final score: Atlanta 101 Miami 93
Joe puts up a line around 22 pts 5 rebs 7 ast and limits Wade to about the same (which is a good thing since the rest of the Hawks’ roster is demonstrably better than the Heats’)

Philly or Miami?

The 76ers just passed the Heat in the standings for the 5th seed, which means the Hawks would play them in the first round. In my mind, this is a wonderful thing. While the 76ers have more depth and seem to play us really well, I really, really, really, really, don't want to play Wade (and the refs) in a playoff series.

Really don't.