The NFC South Is Not As Good As It Seems

And that includes the Falcons. I have come to the conclusion (and no I don't have stats to back this up) that the teams that are 10-6 are just as good as the teams that are 6-10 and everyone in between. These are the teams that are dangerous every Sunday, but they have serious flaws. Even if they make the playoffs, they are not a real title contender. The difference between these teams? A lucky break here or there, a slightly better coach, an injury to a major player, or (the topic of the column) one teams' schedule is easier than the other.

Here are the standings for the NFC South:
Carolina is 8-3
Tampa Bay is 8-3
Atlanta is 7-4
New Orleans is 6-5
All of the teams have winning records, but all of the teams are also imminently beatable. None of them scream "Title Contender." Are Tampa and Carolina really better than New England or Indy? Who would you rather put money on to win the Super Bowl?

So why are the records of the NFC South so good? We all get to play Detroit, Kansas City, and Oakland, who have a combined 4 wins. So that's three guaranteed wins right there. Delhomme threw 4 picks and a total of 72 yards against Oakland, AND THEY STILL WON! Then you throw in the underachieving Chargers, the defensive sieve that is Denver, and the rest of the NFC North (Bears, Packers, and Vikings) who are just average teams, and you have a recipe for a winning season if you have a decent team.

Now I'm not saying that Atlanta's good play this season is a mirage created by playing inferior competition. Far from it. I'm just saying I don't know if we're really 7-4 good. A few tweaks in the schedule and I could see us being 5-6 or even 4-7, which, considering my expectations coming into the season, I would still consider a rousing success. So don't buy Super Bowl tickets... until next season.

Too Early To Evaluate

But I enjoy a bit of hyperbole from time to time.

Comrade Dmitroff = Genius

Below is a 2008 draft summary for the Falcons with some comments by me. Before that, I'd like to note that pundits were basically wetting themselves after the Giants got contributions from just about their entire draft class of 2007 during last year's super bowl run. Perhaps the Falcons should go ahead and start covering their furniture with plastic? I hope so...


1st Round (No. 3 overall)
QB Matt Ryan (Boston College)

Not really much to be said that hasn't been said already. Being a Falcons fan my entire life, I've never "watched a QB grow" or even knew what that meant. The change in Matt is appreciable and noticeable on a week to week basis and it really excites me to think what can be accomplished down the road as long as he stays healthy and we surround him with quality players.

1st Round (No. 21 overall)+
T Sam Baker (USC)

Was having a stellar season at LT until injuries derailed him. A couple of concussions and a busted hip have kept him out half the season. Hopefully he'll be back because the inability to run behind Weiner could be a real weakness against good defenses. Good thing there is only one of those left on the schedule.

2nd Round (No. 37 overall)
LB Curtis Lofton (Oklahoma)

If Ryan is "Matty Ice", I vote for calling Lofton "The Beast". We can have an all crappy beer nicknamed team. Not sure who gets to be called Schlitz, OE, and/or PBR. Lofton is a pretty sure tackler and doesn't seem to get out of position on many occassions. We haven't seen much of his pass rush ability as we tend to send OKB (Old Keith Brooking) on blitzes for some reason. Continued development should make him and Boley and impressive force.


3rd Round (No. 68 overall)
CB Chevis Jackson (LSU)

Corners typically develop slowly as the athleticism advantage they once had in college is gone and they have to learn how to cover. That said, Jackson has been solid in nickel and dime situations and I have rarely seen him burnt deep (DHalled as I like to call it).

3rd Round (No. 84 overall)#
WR Harry Douglas (Louisville)

He and Jenkins are the perfect complements to Rowdy Roddy White. Roddy is the "guy" defenses have to key on. Jenkins makes the tough catches and can go up for the ball. And Harry Douglas is the squirrely guy that gets open and squirts for extra yards when you need him to. Combine that with punt return ability and creative use in the run game and he can be a game changer.

3rd Round (No. 98 overall)~
S Thomas DeCoud (California)

With the surprising (to me) play of Erik Coleman, we haven't gotten to see much of DeCoud. He made big plays on special teams last week and I have no doubt he is learning a lot under the tutelage of Lawyer Milloy.

5th Round (No. 138 overall)
LB Robert James (Arizona State)

I haven't seen or heard from this guy all year. I'm too lazy to check the Falcons roster. Our first miss. And it's in the 5th round. I'm okay with that.

5th Round (No. 154 overall)%
DE Kroy Bierman (Montana)

Has been part of the regular rotation at DE all season and has gotten QB pressure on numerous occassions. A situational pass rusher, but it gives Abraham a breather and that's a great thing.

6th Round (No. 172 overall)
RB Thomas Brown (Georgia)

Blew out his knee in pre-season. I still have high hopes for him as a replacement for Norwood when Norwood moves on (which he will) to a starting job. Can excel as a 3rd down back and a receiver and return punts and kicks.

7th Round (No. 212 overall)
CB Wilrey Fontenot (Arizona)

Not on the active roster. How dare you screw up our 7th round pick, GM!

7th Round (No. 232 overall)
TE Keith Zinger (LSU)

I am convinced we drafted him for name only.

Summary:

When you pick at the top of the draft you have to make the most out of it. Getting a pro-bowl caliber QB, a starting LT, LB, WR and depth at CB, DE, and S is about as much as you can ask of a new GM coming in to a horrible mess.

Flip on the Free Throw Line

I don't want Flip taking 20 shots a game.

I don't want Flip to play more than 20 minutes a game.

I don't want Flip to be on the floor with Bibby.

I don't want Flip to guard anyone good.

I don't want Flip to influence our young players (especially Law).

I do, however, want Flip to be on the floor at the end of the game when we have a lead. The man does not feel pressure. I was comfortable having him at the free throw line on Wednesday against the Wizards to ice the game. To me, he's the equivalent of Sam Cassell the last couple of years. Too much confidence, which isn't a horrible thing when the game is on the line.

Lack of Defense

So I was going to write separate articles about the struggles of the Falcons and Hawks, but then I realized their problems were exactly the same: no defense, especially in late game situations.

First, let's start with the Falcons. The Broncos get the ball with 10:36 remaining in the fourth quarter starting on their own 17 yard line down by three. They proceeded to march down the field for a touchdown with relative ease despite playing with two green tackles (Clady is a rookie, Harris is a second-year guy). Granted the Falcons are a good example of young players coming through, but still. A crucial drive in the fourth quarter and the Broncos only see 2 third downs? One of them at the 9 yard line? That's rough...

The main culprit for this is an utter lack of a pass rush outside of Abraham. And since Abraham got banged up earlier in the game, Atlanta's got dominated on the line. The Broncos were rushing effectively despite signing running backs off the street, and Cutler had way too much time to sit in the pocket and wait for a receiver to get open. Our secondary, which is improving, can't defend receivers for that long, especially when playing against talented receivers like Brandon Marshall. So it's time for Jamaal Anderson to wake up and start playing like the defensive end he resembles and will see this week: Julius Peppers. (Seriously, compare! Around the same height, weight, build, facial hair, hair cut... he needs to channel his inner Peppers)

As for the Hawks, I think the main culprits are injuries and poor subbing. Since Josh went out the Hawks' defense has suffered as evidenced by surrendering 108 points to Chicago, 103 to Boston, 115 and 119 to New Jersey, and 113 to Indiana. Additionally Horford has missed the last couple of games so our interior defense at key times consisted of Zaza and Marvin, neither of which can block of shot to save their life (though they rebounded well against Washington, but their big men aren't any good). Combine this with the fact that Woody is running out the combo of Bibby and Flip at the same time and you have a recipe for disaster. The guards on the perimeter can't keep their man in front of them (still have nightmares of Devin Harris), and our bigs can't clean up the mess when they get into the paint.

Getting Horford and Josh back will obviously alleviate some of these problems, but Woody has to realize that he really shouldn't play Flip and Bibby together for long stretches of time. Even with Horford or Josh in there, you're putting so much pressure on them that you have the potential for them to rack up quick fouls or force them to leave their man open for easy dishes or easy rebounds. So unless we're going up against a team with inept guards, Woody needs to stagger Flip and Bibby and mix in Mo Evans more. He can still extend the D, but he can also play D.

But, unlike last year, I feel like these Atlanta teams can actually make adjustments to correct these problems. So they feel more like speed bumps rather than the mountains of last year. Nice feeling...

Gazing Into My Crystal Balls

We're 6-4* today

I've been busy with some other things going on in real life so D has been kind enough to do most of the posting lately. I got the message that "Dave the Falconer" was seeking our predictions and I had every intention of writing this up before the Broncos game. I really thought we should have and could have won that game and would have predicted so. Looking back it seems like the major problem was that our line wasn't able to make many holes against the Broncos front and the left side in particular behind aging Todd Weiner and already aged Wayne Gandy was subpar. Ryan was pressured more by the Broncos d-line and while I'd like to give them credit, I still credit our poor play more than I can credite excessive skill on their part. So what does the rest of the season hold for us?

vs. Carolina: WIN
Here's why: Despite the poor play of the line last week, we are a better team on the road. In some ways, Ryan facing some heat and making a few bad decisions is a good thing. You develop in any sport by playing against better competitors and learning from mistakes. Last time Ryan had a bad game he followed it up with a great game. Granted Carolina won't play like Kansas City, but the teams always have a little more juice for a division rival. Factor in the home crowd, the close margin last time (the game wasn't out of hand til late), and Ryan's development and I think we can squeak out a win on Elam's leg.

at San Diego: WIN
Here's Why: A lot of people seem to think we'll lose this game. I don't get it. As a disgruntled owner of LT, I can tell you he isn't the same this year. It hasn't mattered which defense he has been going against, he's been pretty terrible. This will be the first game in a while where the opposing team doesn't have a WR that we have to worry about. Against the Chargers, I'm comfortable with our corners man to man. San Diego's defense isn't what it was with Merriman and the Falcons will follow the Oakland game plan of getting out to a decent lead and letting the other team try to claw back. This just in: Norv Turner isn't a good coach.

at New Orleans: WIN
Here's Why: We demolished them at home. Their defense is terrible, their offense is falling apart and their players are starting to blame one another. Part of our "home field advantage" is that the surface we play on is much different than grass. It'll FEEL like a home game on the field in New Orleans as their crowds aren't as loud as they were the last few years (that'll happen when you are mediocre) and we're accustomed to the "fast surface".

vs. Tampa Bay: WIN
Here's Why: Bad QB with a running game either missing players or with players coming off of injury on the road and no playmakers on the outside to stretch the field. That sounds like a recipe for a low scoring game. This will shape up to be one of those 13-7 affairs and I think the Falcons have more playmakers and a more consistent kicker. These games come down to a big play or two and a clutch kick a lot of times and I think we have both.

at Minnesota: LOSS
Here's Why: Because you can't win them all. The homer in me wanted to pick us to win this game and run the table but that's not likely to happen. This team reminds me a lot of a better version of Tampa. A mediocre QB with a great defense around him. The difference is that Minny has a playmaker and is at home. Adrian Peterson will likely control the clock for the Vikes in front of an always raucous crowd.

vs. St. Louis: WIN
Here's Why: Let me get this straight: needing a big win to stay in the playoff picture we get one of the worst teams in the league the last game of the year? You don't get to automatically put one in the win column in the NFL but this is about as close as you can get. Rams' players will be playing to finish out the season and not get hurt, coaches will have checked out knowing their fate is already sealed for the next year. And the Falcons are at home with a QB who is learning visibly every game with the playoffs on the line! We'll be up big by half and cruise on home.
That puts the Falcons at 11-5 and 4-2 in the division. The division title could turn into a mess as each team has 3 games remaining and anything can happen. Regardless, at worst we finish the season with a .500 record and a legion of suddenly mute pundits eating crow on the Ryan pick. At best, I'm right and we make the playoffs. I'm not sure how they will shake out but if we can get Arizona or an NFC North team, I'd be fairly confident.

It's a good time to be an Atlanta fan. If only Josh Smith's ankle would hurry up and heal...

*We should be 7-3 but we got jobbed by the refs in the Eagles game. This is almost indisputably the worst season in officiating ever. That's not hyperbole. They've screwed the Chargers, Falcons and $64 million dollars worth of Vegas bets. Somewhere Tim Donaghy is giggling.

Falcons Predictions

Well Dave the Falconer asked for predictions of the upcoming schedule, so here it goes. In the interest of full disclosure, I made a prediction at the beginning of the season in my article "This I Believe," where I thought I was being generous in predicting 6 wins for the Falcons. I hope that prediction does not come true since that would mean the Falcons went on a 7 game losing streak. So I guess this would be a more revised prediction.

Falcons v. Broncos
Didn't we just play this team last week? Horrible defense, great passing offense, abandons the run at the drop of the hat. What's that? That was the Saints? Oh... well I'm still going to predict the same result. Falcons win in a shootout where the secondary makes just enough plays, and Turner milks the clock with his ginormous thighs.

Falcons v. Panthers
I think this game will come down run defenses. The Panthers have a pretty good one, and Peppers seems to be coming on (3 sacks and 2 forced fumbles last week). The Falcons have a good one as well, but only when Grady "Fat" Jackson plays. I'm thinking that Grady will play and the Falcons will win by a field goal. Delhomme will march the Panthers down the field with time running out, but he will either be intercepted or a pass will be defensed on fourth down to preserve the win.

Falcons at Chargers
I'm still not ready to believe that Tomlinson has fully fallen off the cliff yet. Maybe I'm just in denial. Plus by this time Ron Rivera (the new d-coordinator) will have had several weeks to get his mitts around the Chargers defense, which still has plenty of talented players. The Chargers, desperately trying to salvage their season will win by 10 points.

Falcons at New Orleans
The Saints, also trying to salvage their season of broken dreams, will be playing their hearts out. Reggie Bush, back from his injury, and Marques Colston, who looked rusty last week, will further aid Drew Brees in his quest to try and save the Saints. Unfortunately there is no one coming to aid the New Orleans defense, and Turner's titanic thighs will keep the ball out of Brees' hands. Therefore, the Falcons win running away... literally.

Falcons v. Tampa Bay
The Falcons first home loss will come to the hated Buccaneers. Honestly, now that the NFC South has been together for 6 or so seasons, I have a natural disdain for the other three teams in our division. I think that's what the head offices were going for, and it worked well in the NFC South.

Falcons at Minnesota
I don't know why, but I just can not respect the Vikings this season. I love Peterson, I love the Williams in the middle, and Jared Allen is good (don't love him though), but I just can't take them seriously with such a mess under center. Their run D scares me since Turner seems to vanish against these teams. However, I believe this game will come down to who turns the ball over the least, and I think it's a safe bet that Ryan will protect the ball better than Frerotte. Therefore, Falcons win by a field goal.

Falcons v. St. Louis
The Rams are awful. We're at home. Falcons win.

That will leave the Falcons at 11-5. And I think there is a possibility of a three way tie at the top of the NFC South. The Panthers have a tough schedule over their last 7, and I could easily see them dropping 3 games. The Bucs have a much easier schedule than the Falcons or the Panthers, but I don't think they are as good. Therefore I'm predicting a three-way tie for first in the NFC South. Wouldn't that be fun?

Man I Hate Paul Pierce

Let me get something straight right off the bat: I don't hate Pierce because he hit the game-winning shot last night. Far from it. I was disappointed that the Hawks lost, and, honestly, impressed by the shot he hit. Besides, the Hawks should be blamed for even allowing Pierce that opportunity. They got the ball with 21 seconds left and should have bled the clock before driving to the basket. Then Pierce would have had a rushed shot at best. No, I don't hate Pierce for one moment.

I hate Pierce for how he plays basketball. He has the ugliest game short of Anthony Mason. I hate how he flops around the court worse than the European players.

I hate that he flails his arms and falls every which way on the offensive end, but still stares at the refs in shock when he gets called for a foul on the defensive end. He's probably trying to get the refs to call a foul in the above picture.

I hate that the refs encourage his behavior by calling fouls on defenders who are standing to the side with their arms up when Pierce flops to the side while shooting. NO ONE SHOOTS LIKE THAT! WHY ARE YOU CALLING A FOUL?!

When I texted Matt last night that I hated Pierce he responds with, "I wonder if he walks down the street and falls into people and then calls the police." In everyday life Pierce is the guy that slams on his brakes and then hops out of his car holding his neck when he gets into a fender-bender, threatening to sue.

I hate that he attempted more free throws (16) than field goals (14) last night. Let me get this straight... almost all of our players get in foul trouble, but Glen Davis is allowed to literally shove Joe at the top of the key when flashing out on a screen?

I hate that people are going to be talking about how he scored 34 points when 15 of those points came off of free throws.

I hate when people say he is "good at creating contact," and mean it as a compliment. He's a used car salesman on the court, creating something that isn't there and selling that bs to the refs. In his honor the NBA should change the rules. Even if you get your guy up the air, you have to at least attempt your normal shot to get a foul call. No falling to the side or lunging forward or backward to create contact. If the shooter literally creates the contact, then it shouldn't be a foul.

Man I hate Paul Pierce.

So Really, How Good are the Hawks?

I think I like Sekou's answer the best, you're not as good as your best days and you're not as bad as your worst days. I'm sure I butchered the saying, but you get the gist of it. The Hawks are flying high at 5-0, but I think you're jumping out on a limb to say they're one of the elite teams in the East. I'm not saying the limb is going to break, but it isn't the steadiest position. So let's move back to the trunk and try to figure out what we can glean from the first 5 games.

1. The Hawks will not be awful on the road this year. Last year the Hawks barely squeaked into the playoffs mainly due to a 12-29 road record compared to a 25-16 home record. This home/road split was quite evident in their playoff series where they lost 4 games in Boston by an average margin of 25.25 points. This year, however, the Hawks already have 3 road wins (1/4 of last years total), including wins against 2 playoff teams from last year; Orlando and New Orleans. I think this trend will continue with the young players getting another year under their belt and the addition of Flip and Mo, two vets who will provide more stability on the road.

2. The Hawks bench will not be a liability. I'm not going to go as far as calling the bench an asset just yet, but we have gone from having one bench player worth anything in Childress to having several bench players that can contribute. Now we have 3-4 (depending on how you count Solo). Additionally the bench players look like they defined roles this year. Last year Woodson yanked around everyones minutes (except Childress) so they never knew when they were coming into the game, for how long, and what they're role was going to be. This year the roles are:
Flip is the bench player who can create his own offense. Mo is the wing defender who can knock down the 3. Zaza is the energy big man (18 offensive rebounds in 5 games). Even Solo has played good D off the bench (5 blocks and many more altered shots in the last two games).
Hopefully Woody will stick to his rotation and give the bench some consistency. The bench will especially help over the long haul of the season as it will keep Joe's minutes down, give us more of a chance on the second night of a back-to-back, and will help us survive the inevitable injuries.

3. The Hawks can shoot the 3. Last year it was Joe and Bibby, and before the trade for Bibby it was just Joe. This meant that opposing defenses could lock down on Joe and cheat off of everyone else. This made every offensive possession a struggle to find room to operate. This year, however, Mo (43.8%) and Flip (41.2%) joined Joe (44%) and Bibby (37.9%) in shooting well beyond the arc. Additionally Marvin, who attempted 10 3's all season last year, has hit 4-7 (57.1%) in 4 games this year. Now the Hawks can put on the floor 3-4 (if we go small) players who can consistently knock down the 3. This will spread out the floor for Josh and Horford, and, especially, make it so a defense will pay for collapsing down on Joe.

Like I said at the top, I think it's way too early to predict anything too crazy for the Hawks. At the same time, however, the fast start has made it so people won't think you're completely insane for putting the Hawks in the elite of the east.

Billy Beane is Smarter Than You

I wanted to come out of my little work-induced break with an Atlanta article, but I just had to comment on the Holliday trade. In case you were asleep yesterday, the Oakland A's are acquiring the Rockies' Matt Holliday for starter Greg Smith, closer Huston Street, and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez.

That's right, for one of the top five hitters is baseball, Beane is giving up a starter who had a 4.16 ERA (even though he was pitching in Oakland), a rookie outfielder who hit .242 in 302 at-bats, and a good pitcher in the most over-rated position, who is also injury prone, closer. I would call that a heist.

You can argue that it's not that great of a deal since Holliday is on the last year of his contract and the A's will have no chance of signing him since he's a Boras client who will be asking for a contract in the neighborhood of A-Rod's. But if the A's aren't contending by June or July, what kind of prospects do you think people are going to be willing to shell out for a legitimate middle of the order bat? And if they are contending, they gave up not much for a run at the AL west, and when he leaves for free agency they will get two compensatory picks.

And that's why Beane is smarter than you...