Some quick thoughts on this weekend/week.
UGA dismantled UF's vaunted offense and was in control the entire game. The only major mistake being Stafford's throw (to avoid a safety) that was picked by some Frenchman for 6. Aside from that (and Tebow apparently being too injured to run anyplace other than the goal line), the Dawgs steamrolled the Gators in J-Ville. Moreno carried the team with his 33 totes and almost 200 yards. Stafford was efficient and showed good touch on his deep ball. Figgins caught a key first down (that Tripp would have certainly dropped). The best part is all these players (along with most of the O-Line) are underclassmen. That being said, something has to be done with our KR/PR. Hopefully Mikey can get healthy and get back there, because Asher Allen has absolutely no burst. We'd get the same results by putting Brannan Sutherland back there. Defensively, Rennie Curran was everywhere and no one got by him. Reshad Jones finally delivered both big hits and decent coverage. They're both Freshman as well. We missed picking up their RB out of the backfield on wheel routes which could be a problem, but nothing that gametape and practice can't fix.
It was strange not seeing Coutu out there for 2-5 FGs during the game. But I don't think he minds too much. I won't even touch the field storming controversy other than to say that we took our punishment and didn't harm anyone. Time to move on!
No Falcons loss this weekend means no Falcons update or 2008 QB watch. (Which is good because Andre Woodson metaphorically pooped himself).
The Braves traded Renteria to the Tigers in a homecoming of sorts for Leyland/Dombrowski/Renteria. We neglected to tell the Tigers that they are getting old Renteria not 1997 Renteria. Renteria, while a good player, will only be worse in the AL than he was in the NL especially one year older. Add that to Guillen switching to 1B (where he is inferior defensively) and this has all the makings of a sieve in the Tigers IF defense. We got a pitcher (Jurrjens) who doesn't throw too hard (93) but has control. He'll compete for the 4/5 SP slot and can't be much worse than JoJo/Chuck. We also picked up a speedy 19 year old CF prospect in Gorkys Hernandez. This has to be step 1 in Wren's plans because at the moment our minor leauge OF prospects are pretty deep: Jones, Schaffer, Lillibridge, Heyward, and Hernandez. Only Jones and Lillibridge are close to ML ready. It appears that we are getting ready to turn some of this depth into a SP. My hope is for some sort of Lillibridge/Prado/JoJo for Blanton on the A's.
Hawks tipoff is at the end of this week. The first 6 games are a doozy (Dallas, Detroit, NJ, Phoenix, Boston, Washington). If we can win 2 of those I'd be content, 3 and I'd be pretty excited. It'll probably be 3 or 4 weeks before we can really get an idea of how good this team is/can be. The main focus now is to see if the Hawks can sustain the uptempo pace that the coaches are looking for (and that the coaches stick with it). The 7-1 preaseason looks good and is a testament to how deep the team is from top to bottom. Too bad Mike Hampton, I mean Speedy Claxton, will be suited up in Armani instead of Reebok.
I'm looking forward to the 11/16 game vs. Seattle. I'm hoping to go as I'd get to see (a) a Hawks win and (b) Durant in person. Both would be very enjoyable.
That's all for now. Dawgs get a breather against Troy on Saturday, Falcons take on old nemesis San Fran in what could be the worst game of offensive football in the last decade. I'll be watching with fingers covering my eyes. Hopefully Norwood can pull a Moreno at some point and make this RB by committee thing go away.
That's all for now!
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Monday, October 22, 2007
2008 QB Preview Show! (I know it's still 2007!)
Leftwich looked good until he "Leftwiched" with an ankle injury. See ya in 6 weeks! Prior to getting rolled up by an underrated Saints D-Line, Leftwich was firing missiles and the recievers were surprisingly hanging on to some of em. The offense would work methodically down the field when Norwood was in but we just couldn't finish them off. Once Leftwich rode the cart into the sunset, Harrington stepped in and did about the same.
The main problem for the offense (aside from the QB switch and the Offensive Tackle issues) is the playing time granted to Horn and Dunn. Both are glorified coaches at this point. Neither is able to reliably contribute. Horn's once "crisp" routes are now slower and he has no ability to stretch the defense deep. Dunn seems content to turn his back at the first point of contact and fall down for that "extra" 1 yard. Too bad he has no burst either laterally or through the hole, ending up getting his "extra yard" at the line of scrimmage. The tackles didn't do a horrible job, even without much help from TE and/or RB chip blocking. Robinson continued to impress with a highlight catch and Roddy White's emergence is setting up the WR position nicely for the future.
Which is what this team looks like it's playing towards. At 1-6 Petrino is intelligent enough to understand that this season is effectively over and he's looking towards development. Hence Leftwich getting a look. In the end, I don't think it matters who plays QB this year. We've locked up a top 10 draft position and sights are likely set on a QB from a major Kentucky school.
Brohm: 68% completion 3000 yards 24TD/6 Int. Won-Loss isn't his fault. He doesn't play defense. Completing almost 70% of his passes for well over 300 yards and 3TDs per game as a senior is astounding. Injuries are the only concern for Brohm as he's missed significant time throughout his tenure.
Woodson: 65% completion 2200 yards 26TD/4 Int. A huge quarterback with a great arm and impeccable touch. A little scattershot at times. A great leader who knows how to rally a team and how to come from behind.
I know it's a little early to preview QBs for 2008, but these are the two with whom Petrino is most familiar, and lets face it, I need something to give me hope at the moment.
On a good note, Teblow is going to miss some practice and all contact drills this week because his coach decided to ride him like a circus pony all year. Who knew that a 19 year old in his first year as starting QB couldn't be 75% of his teams offense without it taking a toll. For the first time, I'm not too worried about the game. All the pressure is on Florida's side and they are coming off a physical game in Lexington. It's gunna be a good one to watch on the River this weekend!
p.s. sorry for the delay in posts. was out sick. I'll be at the game so likely no posts Thurs-Sat.
The main problem for the offense (aside from the QB switch and the Offensive Tackle issues) is the playing time granted to Horn and Dunn. Both are glorified coaches at this point. Neither is able to reliably contribute. Horn's once "crisp" routes are now slower and he has no ability to stretch the defense deep. Dunn seems content to turn his back at the first point of contact and fall down for that "extra" 1 yard. Too bad he has no burst either laterally or through the hole, ending up getting his "extra yard" at the line of scrimmage. The tackles didn't do a horrible job, even without much help from TE and/or RB chip blocking. Robinson continued to impress with a highlight catch and Roddy White's emergence is setting up the WR position nicely for the future.
Which is what this team looks like it's playing towards. At 1-6 Petrino is intelligent enough to understand that this season is effectively over and he's looking towards development. Hence Leftwich getting a look. In the end, I don't think it matters who plays QB this year. We've locked up a top 10 draft position and sights are likely set on a QB from a major Kentucky school.
Brohm: 68% completion 3000 yards 24TD/6 Int. Won-Loss isn't his fault. He doesn't play defense. Completing almost 70% of his passes for well over 300 yards and 3TDs per game as a senior is astounding. Injuries are the only concern for Brohm as he's missed significant time throughout his tenure.
Woodson: 65% completion 2200 yards 26TD/4 Int. A huge quarterback with a great arm and impeccable touch. A little scattershot at times. A great leader who knows how to rally a team and how to come from behind.
I know it's a little early to preview QBs for 2008, but these are the two with whom Petrino is most familiar, and lets face it, I need something to give me hope at the moment.
On a good note, Teblow is going to miss some practice and all contact drills this week because his coach decided to ride him like a circus pony all year. Who knew that a 19 year old in his first year as starting QB couldn't be 75% of his teams offense without it taking a toll. For the first time, I'm not too worried about the game. All the pressure is on Florida's side and they are coming off a physical game in Lexington. It's gunna be a good one to watch on the River this weekend!
p.s. sorry for the delay in posts. was out sick. I'll be at the game so likely no posts Thurs-Sat.
Sunday, October 7, 2007
Ugh x2
When your defense forces 5 turnovers, a 35 QB rating by the opponent, and holds them under 100 yards rushing you should probably win. Right? Right!?
The only defensive player who didn't have a good game was Abraham, who just couldn't get on track and seemed tired the entire game. Stellar efforts from Boley and D. Hall kept the Titans from moving the ball (and maintaining possession as well). D. Williams got into the act late with a big interception and a HUGE tackle on the punter. Defensively, it looked like we had seen a QB like Young a lot in the past. I wonder why? We rushed the edges to keep him in the pocket and force him to beat us with his arm. Unfortunately, our LBs and DBs didn't have the running room to return all of his picks for TDs.
The real problem today was that we were unable to do anything offensively. We couldn't run, we couldn't pass short, we couldn't pass deep, we couldn't throw screens. If the game called us to take a knee, we probably would have screwed that up. Harrington looked rattled from all the hits he was taking. Petrino decided to roll the dice and put in Leftwich. He proceeded to throw everything about 10 yards above his targets and ended the game by getting shoelace sacked. Keonen and Methuselah couldn't make their non-chip shot FGs and that ended up being the difference (it's gunna be nice next year when Coutu is nailing those 47 yarders for us!) For another week, Dunn looks Dunn. Excuse me, done. Norwood got a little momentum after his first long KR and moved the ball a little. We need a big back who can plow for a yard or two when needed (has anyone heard from TJ Duckett???). Trying a flip play on 1st and goal from the 1 was only necessary because we don't have a road grader who can hold onto the ball.
Haynesworth was ridiculous all game. When he leapt over the G/C to bring down leftwhich and cause a 8 yard loss, I was in awe. I've never seen a DT jump over the O-Line to make a stop like that. Too bad I was rooting for the Falcons.
Petrino seemingly made up his mind and will be switching to Leftwich. The problems Leftwich had were those of timing and "feel". Getting the workload in practice should help to remedy those issues. Leftwich doesn't seem to fall away on his throws the same way Harrington does/did. Leftwich has vastly superior arm strength. At times it seems like Harrington just can't get the ball deep enough and coordinators are taking notice and playing more under coverage.
Wayne Gandy left on the cart with a knee injury. Let's hope it's not serious.
In league injury news, Trent Green took a knee to the helmet while trying to block and had to be carted off the field. I know they can't do this, but the league shouldn't let him back on the field. It stinks that he has to go out this way but having this happen two consecutive years should be terrifying to him. That said, what the hell is he doing try to block down low? Hey, Trent! You missed last year with Post-Concussion Syndrome from getting NAILED IN THE HEAD! I want to have sympathy but he's making it tough.
At least UGA didn't drop out of the polls. I guess that something to be happy about this week.
The only defensive player who didn't have a good game was Abraham, who just couldn't get on track and seemed tired the entire game. Stellar efforts from Boley and D. Hall kept the Titans from moving the ball (and maintaining possession as well). D. Williams got into the act late with a big interception and a HUGE tackle on the punter. Defensively, it looked like we had seen a QB like Young a lot in the past. I wonder why? We rushed the edges to keep him in the pocket and force him to beat us with his arm. Unfortunately, our LBs and DBs didn't have the running room to return all of his picks for TDs.
The real problem today was that we were unable to do anything offensively. We couldn't run, we couldn't pass short, we couldn't pass deep, we couldn't throw screens. If the game called us to take a knee, we probably would have screwed that up. Harrington looked rattled from all the hits he was taking. Petrino decided to roll the dice and put in Leftwich. He proceeded to throw everything about 10 yards above his targets and ended the game by getting shoelace sacked. Keonen and Methuselah couldn't make their non-chip shot FGs and that ended up being the difference (it's gunna be nice next year when Coutu is nailing those 47 yarders for us!) For another week, Dunn looks Dunn. Excuse me, done. Norwood got a little momentum after his first long KR and moved the ball a little. We need a big back who can plow for a yard or two when needed (has anyone heard from TJ Duckett???). Trying a flip play on 1st and goal from the 1 was only necessary because we don't have a road grader who can hold onto the ball.
Haynesworth was ridiculous all game. When he leapt over the G/C to bring down leftwhich and cause a 8 yard loss, I was in awe. I've never seen a DT jump over the O-Line to make a stop like that. Too bad I was rooting for the Falcons.
Petrino seemingly made up his mind and will be switching to Leftwich. The problems Leftwich had were those of timing and "feel". Getting the workload in practice should help to remedy those issues. Leftwich doesn't seem to fall away on his throws the same way Harrington does/did. Leftwich has vastly superior arm strength. At times it seems like Harrington just can't get the ball deep enough and coordinators are taking notice and playing more under coverage.
Wayne Gandy left on the cart with a knee injury. Let's hope it's not serious.
In league injury news, Trent Green took a knee to the helmet while trying to block and had to be carted off the field. I know they can't do this, but the league shouldn't let him back on the field. It stinks that he has to go out this way but having this happen two consecutive years should be terrifying to him. That said, what the hell is he doing try to block down low? Hey, Trent! You missed last year with Post-Concussion Syndrome from getting NAILED IN THE HEAD! I want to have sympathy but he's making it tough.
At least UGA didn't drop out of the polls. I guess that something to be happy about this week.
Saturday, October 6, 2007
Ugh
I didn't want to post about the game but figured if I didn't vent I might explode and run over the next idiot wearing orange I saw. I don't even feel like watching Florida get destroyed at this point.
Offensively they stunk. Bobo waited too long into the game to start calling screens. It had worked all year for them, but they seemingly forgot that and want to point our 180 lb backs up the middle repeatedly. Stafford was a little off early on but his recievers did a piss poor job (as usual) of helping him in any fashion. This is the third year in a row they haven't had a single reliable reciever, perhaps it's time Georgia lets go whomever is coaching them because things like "catching" and "running routes" seem to be missing. But hey, at least they block well down field. Let Israel Troupe play, already.
The defense couldn't stop Foster if they had 13 men out there. The DBs were constantly sucked to the line and consistently out of position for cutbacks and stretches. Prince Miller continued to play the Lewis Sanders school of Cornerbacking where you stay 2 yards off your man so he can catch it and you can get the easy tackle. Kelin Johnson looks done at Safety. He isn't a hard hitter, he can't help in coverage. What exactly does he do out there? The D-Line is just way too small. It's one thing to be small at end or have quick DTs but having every position underweight leads to teams running up the gut on you (see BJGE from Ole Miss).
But hey, the O-Line looked decent in pass blocking. That's always good.
And apparently opposing teams are terrified of Mikey Henderson. That's nice. Too bad they couldn't make UT punt when it mattered.
The trick play just happens. I can live with that. Overall it was just embarassing. I'm glad this is a rebuilding year for us and these things can be tolerated. It's a learning experience for Stafford, Moreno, the entire O-Line, the secondary, and our WRs. I'm glad they are all young. Maybe this makes us more of a sleeper and we can upset the Florida Tebows. By the time our game with them rolls around, Meyer will have worn him out.
Falcons vs Titans can't come soon enough.
Offensively they stunk. Bobo waited too long into the game to start calling screens. It had worked all year for them, but they seemingly forgot that and want to point our 180 lb backs up the middle repeatedly. Stafford was a little off early on but his recievers did a piss poor job (as usual) of helping him in any fashion. This is the third year in a row they haven't had a single reliable reciever, perhaps it's time Georgia lets go whomever is coaching them because things like "catching" and "running routes" seem to be missing. But hey, at least they block well down field. Let Israel Troupe play, already.
The defense couldn't stop Foster if they had 13 men out there. The DBs were constantly sucked to the line and consistently out of position for cutbacks and stretches. Prince Miller continued to play the Lewis Sanders school of Cornerbacking where you stay 2 yards off your man so he can catch it and you can get the easy tackle. Kelin Johnson looks done at Safety. He isn't a hard hitter, he can't help in coverage. What exactly does he do out there? The D-Line is just way too small. It's one thing to be small at end or have quick DTs but having every position underweight leads to teams running up the gut on you (see BJGE from Ole Miss).
But hey, the O-Line looked decent in pass blocking. That's always good.
And apparently opposing teams are terrified of Mikey Henderson. That's nice. Too bad they couldn't make UT punt when it mattered.
The trick play just happens. I can live with that. Overall it was just embarassing. I'm glad this is a rebuilding year for us and these things can be tolerated. It's a learning experience for Stafford, Moreno, the entire O-Line, the secondary, and our WRs. I'm glad they are all young. Maybe this makes us more of a sleeper and we can upset the Florida Tebows. By the time our game with them rolls around, Meyer will have worn him out.
Falcons vs Titans can't come soon enough.
Thursday, October 4, 2007
Human LCD
This is ridiculous. I was mezmerized by it. These are people doing this with their clothes.
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
Heightened Expectations
The 2007-2008 Hawks season got officially got underway with the opening of training camp this week. With all players reporting to camp healthy and ready to get the season underway, it seemed like the perfect opportunity to sit down with some of the Hawks to discuss their expectations for the season. Unfortunately, I’m not part of the real media and don’t have access to the players. So I just get to preview the team without having to worry if they like or dislike what I say about them.
I’ll start by previewing each player and what I think we can expect. Then I’ll get to the team prediction.
Point Guards: Something’s got to give here. With 3 veterans who all do the exact same things well and a rookie who needs to get playing time to develop, there has to be some changes in the roster or turmoil will ensure. The most logical move is to trade fan favorite Tyronn Lue. He’s on the last year of his contract and has playoff experience; a team like Cleveland or even the Lakers could benefit from his presence. If the Hawks keep Lue, he’s my bet to start as he is familiar with Woodson’s offense and the entire roster. Law will likely be the first point guard off the bench because of his ability to pass, shoot, and defend.
T. Lue: Should end up getting around 20-25 mpg. His career averages of 11 ppg and 3 apg seem about right for this season. I question his ability to stay healthy with his smaller stature, though. If he can hold it together long enough for Law to acclimate, they can look for a steady year from the PG position.
Acie Law: My hope is that his experience in college will convince Woody to give him more PT than he normally gives his younger players (remember Woody was on Larry Brown’s staff for years). Law will have his ups and downs but I think his shooting ability will keep him in the rotation even when he doesn’t have the feel for the passing game. His PT will increase as the year goes on (as Woodson has done with all his rookies in the past) and a MPG average of 15-20 is probably reasonable. I’d expect a high A/TO ratio (1:1 or 1:75) with per game averages of 8-10 points and 4 assists.
Speedy Claxton: My biggest concern is that the Hawks brass will mandate playing Speedy due to his contract. A decent PG, he is injured too frequently to rely on and not a good enough passer or defender (as he is no longer “speedy”) to merit starting or first off the bench status. If Lue is traded or injured, Speedy will take up the starting role and I would expect similar numbers (maybe an uptick in points and downtick in assists).
Anthony Johnson: One of our best players (Josh Smith) doesn’t get along with him. We no longer need his “veteran” presence. He’ll be wearing a business suit for most games.
Shooting Guard: Anchored by All-Star (isn’t it great to read that!) Joe Johnson, this is obviously the strongest position for the Hawks. When Joe isn’t in look for Law and Stoudamire to team in the back court so that Law can guard the opponents SG and Salim can take the PG. Claxton and Law will also likely see some time at SG when Joe needs a breather.
Joe Johnson: Another year of being the go-to scorer and another offseason of developing his game can only serve to benefit Joe and the Hawks. A good passer, the development of the younger players should also boost his overall numbers. It’s not unreasonable to expect a slight increase in PPG as he enters his prime. I’m guessing somewhere around 26.5 ppg, 5 APG, 5 RPG while playing a ton of minutes.
Josh Childress: While better at the 3, Childress sees time at both the 2 and 3 as he is the quintessential 6th man. Childress is first off the bench in just about every game and stands to see his numbers improve with steadier PG play as his primary offensive asset is his ability to cut to the basket from the baseline. Without being hampered by the foot injury that bothered him all last season, an increase in PPG and definitely RPG can be expected. Getting up to 15 ppg and 7.5 rpg should make him a contender for 6th man of the year (as he was prior to his injury last year).
Salim Stoudamire: A streaky shooter with a Napoleon complex, he’s an asset to a team that can put the ball down low and kick out to the three point line. Unfortunately, we don’t have the post presence yet to get him the open looks. As Joe’s primary backup, he won’t get many minutes anyway. His dislike for the coaches may result in a midseason trade, especially if Law develops quickly. I actually anticipate a decrease in numbers this year with the addition of Law and a healthy Speedy. Expect around 6 ppg and an unhappy Salim or as part of a package with Lue to Phoenix or Cleveland.
Forwards: I’m not listing them separately because the forward situation is strange. Marvin and Josh Smith can play the 3 or the 4. Personally, I’d play Smith at the 4 to take advantage of his leaping and better post ability and put Marvin on the wing where his shooting and size can overwhelm smaller defenders. But Woodson did the opposite last year. Perhaps they think Marvin is going to grow into his body a bit more and fill out with more strength than Josh. I’m not sure. Childress will obviously see time at the 3, the rundown on him was detailed in the SG section.
Josh Smith: Having a better PG is pivotal to the development of Smith. His primary attribute is his athleticism and a good PG can take advantage of that by putting him in a position to score with more ease. His rebounding should improve slightly with another year under his belt and I can’t image his shot blocking not improving as well. He’ll be the second most efficient player behind Joe and should average close to 19ppg, 9 rpg, 3bpg.
Marvin Williams: The hand injury seemed to derail his first half and it wasn’t until the second half where we started to see flashes of his potential. With a clean, easy shot, developing confidence and increased range, he can stretch the defense and shoot over top of them. Still not a good rebounder or defender, the hope is that a summer of post work will make him more well-rounded. Even a marginal increase in offense puts him at 15 ppg, and as long as he plays with energy on the boards his size can net him 5-6 rpg.
Shelden Williams: He was miscast as a shot-blocker and post presence in the draft and for the first half of last season. What he can provide is fouls (which are important in a league where we’ll see KG, Howard, and Shaq frequently) and energy off the bench. Numbers for Shelden aren’t terribly important (or at least, they shouldn’t be). Sure, he can pop a 15 foot jumper now and again and pick up some boards but ideally he’ll get his 10-15 mpg spelling the other bigs and wearing down the opponent. Ever(y) team needs one of those guys.
Center: Hopefully Zaza and Horford will split minutes by the end of the season. While undersized, Horford is a more well rounded player, with a more skilled post game as well as being a much better rebounder and a defender capable of handling bigger/taller players. The only advantage Zaza really has at this point is having in-game experience, which Coach Woodson values greatly.
Zaza Pachulia: He’s pretty much reached his potential, which is a solid backup C able to put the ball in the basket and grab some offensive rebounds. His overall numbers will probably decrease a little with the addition of Horford and Zaza’s return to something more typical for his ability. He should end up at around 10-11 ppg and 6-7 rpg. Defensively he’s gotten slightly better, but that’s not saying a whole lot as his still has no vertical leap to speak of which precludes him from being a strong finisher at the rim.
Al Horford: He’ll get better as the season progresses. His offensive ability, drive, leadership, and winning mentality are exactly what the Hawks need. His rebounding might suffer a little as he gets accustomed to the physical nature of the Center position in the NBA, but I don’t think it’s out of line to expect about 10-12 ppg.
Lorenzen Wright/Solomon Jones: They are both just here for the ride. Lorenzen is more of an asset in practice to help mold Horford while Solomon is still a project as he still needs to add strength/weight to be productive.
Barring injury, the Hawks could very well see Johnson and Josh Smith recognized as all-stars, Childress as 6th man, and Horford as rookie of the year.
Overall, this team is built for a style more akin to the Suns than the Pistons, but Woodson knows how to coach a team like the Pistons. It’ll be interesting to see if the coaches decide to adapt their strategy to fit the talent and run an up and down game instead of a more deliberate pace. That could be the difference between an okay year and a good year.
The beauty about a young team like the Hawks is that as they all develop together, and they can make big strides from year to year. This should be year one in a line of playoff runs. I don’t think it’s out of line to anticipate just under 35-40 wins, which would put them between 7-8th in the playoffs. Depending on the match up they might be able to sneak out a first round win, but it will take another year of experience before we can really make a push for the conference or NBA finals.
Additionally, a couple of major developments could and hopefully will come off the court. Contract extensions for the Josh’s must be agreed upon by November or each will be able to test unrestricted free agency. The ability to sign both players largely hinges on the big issue: the ongoing legal battle for custody of the Hawks. My hope is that the NBA steps in (as it should have a long time ago) to help resolve the ownership situation and enable the Hawks to become less restricted in their operation.
I will say that the expectations above aren't necessarily the "best case scenario" but they are pretty high hopes for me for the club. I don't think that they are completely unreasonable and certainly close to achievable especially if the rumors of how hard the team worked out and worked together in the offseason are true. I know I'll be watching them even more with the Falcons semi-toast already.
I’ll start by previewing each player and what I think we can expect. Then I’ll get to the team prediction.
Point Guards: Something’s got to give here. With 3 veterans who all do the exact same things well and a rookie who needs to get playing time to develop, there has to be some changes in the roster or turmoil will ensure. The most logical move is to trade fan favorite Tyronn Lue. He’s on the last year of his contract and has playoff experience; a team like Cleveland or even the Lakers could benefit from his presence. If the Hawks keep Lue, he’s my bet to start as he is familiar with Woodson’s offense and the entire roster. Law will likely be the first point guard off the bench because of his ability to pass, shoot, and defend.
T. Lue: Should end up getting around 20-25 mpg. His career averages of 11 ppg and 3 apg seem about right for this season. I question his ability to stay healthy with his smaller stature, though. If he can hold it together long enough for Law to acclimate, they can look for a steady year from the PG position.
Acie Law: My hope is that his experience in college will convince Woody to give him more PT than he normally gives his younger players (remember Woody was on Larry Brown’s staff for years). Law will have his ups and downs but I think his shooting ability will keep him in the rotation even when he doesn’t have the feel for the passing game. His PT will increase as the year goes on (as Woodson has done with all his rookies in the past) and a MPG average of 15-20 is probably reasonable. I’d expect a high A/TO ratio (1:1 or 1:75) with per game averages of 8-10 points and 4 assists.
Speedy Claxton: My biggest concern is that the Hawks brass will mandate playing Speedy due to his contract. A decent PG, he is injured too frequently to rely on and not a good enough passer or defender (as he is no longer “speedy”) to merit starting or first off the bench status. If Lue is traded or injured, Speedy will take up the starting role and I would expect similar numbers (maybe an uptick in points and downtick in assists).
Anthony Johnson: One of our best players (Josh Smith) doesn’t get along with him. We no longer need his “veteran” presence. He’ll be wearing a business suit for most games.
Shooting Guard: Anchored by All-Star (isn’t it great to read that!) Joe Johnson, this is obviously the strongest position for the Hawks. When Joe isn’t in look for Law and Stoudamire to team in the back court so that Law can guard the opponents SG and Salim can take the PG. Claxton and Law will also likely see some time at SG when Joe needs a breather.
Joe Johnson: Another year of being the go-to scorer and another offseason of developing his game can only serve to benefit Joe and the Hawks. A good passer, the development of the younger players should also boost his overall numbers. It’s not unreasonable to expect a slight increase in PPG as he enters his prime. I’m guessing somewhere around 26.5 ppg, 5 APG, 5 RPG while playing a ton of minutes.
Josh Childress: While better at the 3, Childress sees time at both the 2 and 3 as he is the quintessential 6th man. Childress is first off the bench in just about every game and stands to see his numbers improve with steadier PG play as his primary offensive asset is his ability to cut to the basket from the baseline. Without being hampered by the foot injury that bothered him all last season, an increase in PPG and definitely RPG can be expected. Getting up to 15 ppg and 7.5 rpg should make him a contender for 6th man of the year (as he was prior to his injury last year).
Salim Stoudamire: A streaky shooter with a Napoleon complex, he’s an asset to a team that can put the ball down low and kick out to the three point line. Unfortunately, we don’t have the post presence yet to get him the open looks. As Joe’s primary backup, he won’t get many minutes anyway. His dislike for the coaches may result in a midseason trade, especially if Law develops quickly. I actually anticipate a decrease in numbers this year with the addition of Law and a healthy Speedy. Expect around 6 ppg and an unhappy Salim or as part of a package with Lue to Phoenix or Cleveland.
Forwards: I’m not listing them separately because the forward situation is strange. Marvin and Josh Smith can play the 3 or the 4. Personally, I’d play Smith at the 4 to take advantage of his leaping and better post ability and put Marvin on the wing where his shooting and size can overwhelm smaller defenders. But Woodson did the opposite last year. Perhaps they think Marvin is going to grow into his body a bit more and fill out with more strength than Josh. I’m not sure. Childress will obviously see time at the 3, the rundown on him was detailed in the SG section.
Josh Smith: Having a better PG is pivotal to the development of Smith. His primary attribute is his athleticism and a good PG can take advantage of that by putting him in a position to score with more ease. His rebounding should improve slightly with another year under his belt and I can’t image his shot blocking not improving as well. He’ll be the second most efficient player behind Joe and should average close to 19ppg, 9 rpg, 3bpg.
Marvin Williams: The hand injury seemed to derail his first half and it wasn’t until the second half where we started to see flashes of his potential. With a clean, easy shot, developing confidence and increased range, he can stretch the defense and shoot over top of them. Still not a good rebounder or defender, the hope is that a summer of post work will make him more well-rounded. Even a marginal increase in offense puts him at 15 ppg, and as long as he plays with energy on the boards his size can net him 5-6 rpg.
Shelden Williams: He was miscast as a shot-blocker and post presence in the draft and for the first half of last season. What he can provide is fouls (which are important in a league where we’ll see KG, Howard, and Shaq frequently) and energy off the bench. Numbers for Shelden aren’t terribly important (or at least, they shouldn’t be). Sure, he can pop a 15 foot jumper now and again and pick up some boards but ideally he’ll get his 10-15 mpg spelling the other bigs and wearing down the opponent. Ever(y) team needs one of those guys.
Center: Hopefully Zaza and Horford will split minutes by the end of the season. While undersized, Horford is a more well rounded player, with a more skilled post game as well as being a much better rebounder and a defender capable of handling bigger/taller players. The only advantage Zaza really has at this point is having in-game experience, which Coach Woodson values greatly.
Zaza Pachulia: He’s pretty much reached his potential, which is a solid backup C able to put the ball in the basket and grab some offensive rebounds. His overall numbers will probably decrease a little with the addition of Horford and Zaza’s return to something more typical for his ability. He should end up at around 10-11 ppg and 6-7 rpg. Defensively he’s gotten slightly better, but that’s not saying a whole lot as his still has no vertical leap to speak of which precludes him from being a strong finisher at the rim.
Al Horford: He’ll get better as the season progresses. His offensive ability, drive, leadership, and winning mentality are exactly what the Hawks need. His rebounding might suffer a little as he gets accustomed to the physical nature of the Center position in the NBA, but I don’t think it’s out of line to expect about 10-12 ppg.
Lorenzen Wright/Solomon Jones: They are both just here for the ride. Lorenzen is more of an asset in practice to help mold Horford while Solomon is still a project as he still needs to add strength/weight to be productive.
Barring injury, the Hawks could very well see Johnson and Josh Smith recognized as all-stars, Childress as 6th man, and Horford as rookie of the year.
Overall, this team is built for a style more akin to the Suns than the Pistons, but Woodson knows how to coach a team like the Pistons. It’ll be interesting to see if the coaches decide to adapt their strategy to fit the talent and run an up and down game instead of a more deliberate pace. That could be the difference between an okay year and a good year.
The beauty about a young team like the Hawks is that as they all develop together, and they can make big strides from year to year. This should be year one in a line of playoff runs. I don’t think it’s out of line to anticipate just under 35-40 wins, which would put them between 7-8th in the playoffs. Depending on the match up they might be able to sneak out a first round win, but it will take another year of experience before we can really make a push for the conference or NBA finals.
Additionally, a couple of major developments could and hopefully will come off the court. Contract extensions for the Josh’s must be agreed upon by November or each will be able to test unrestricted free agency. The ability to sign both players largely hinges on the big issue: the ongoing legal battle for custody of the Hawks. My hope is that the NBA steps in (as it should have a long time ago) to help resolve the ownership situation and enable the Hawks to become less restricted in their operation.
I will say that the expectations above aren't necessarily the "best case scenario" but they are pretty high hopes for me for the club. I don't think that they are completely unreasonable and certainly close to achievable especially if the rumors of how hard the team worked out and worked together in the offseason are true. I know I'll be watching them even more with the Falcons semi-toast already.
Monday, October 1, 2007
Falcons quick recap
I'm sure all the pundits were hoping Schaub would ride into town and rip apart Atlanta's secondary so they could all say "I told you so". Well, he didn't. Other than throwing a bomb over Lewis Sanders (who looked like he was still playing for the Texans), Schaub wasn't really all that effective. His numbers don't tell the whole story. All afternoon he looked content to dump the ball off to his tight end for short gains, really not moving the chains all that efficiently. Overall, he was clearly outplayed by JJ Harrington.
Harrington, on the other hand, looked a lot more relaxed. He seemed to focus on getting the ball out and letting the recievers do the work really seemed to give him confidence. Crumpler was bowling folks over and Jenkins did his best Cris Carter impression. Dunn did his best Thomas Brown impression while trying to hold off the young speedster one more week.
The media coverage sucked the teet of the Texans all afternoon discussing how "banged up" they were. Look, missing Andre Johnson is a big deal. Missing Ahman Green in 2002 is a big deal, but this is 2007. He doesn't matter anymore. The Falcons were missing their #1 and #3 DTs, they played a rookie 6th round draft pick all game and got good production from him. Another rookie, Stephen Nicholas (4th round pick from USF) got a good amount of playing time and showed the rare (for a Falcon LB) ability to both swarm to the ball AND take down the ball carrier.
Overall, the Falcons played a pretty complete game. I think Hall sitting during the first quarter combined with watching his replacement give up a long TD put things in perspective for him. He shut down Davis after that (not exactly a challenge) and we didn't see much of him all game (which is what you want out of your CB, I never want to see them on camera because it means they're getting thrown at.) I saw way too much of Lewis Sanders, however. I think the seat he's been keeping warm for Houston is warm enough. I can't see how putting Houston out there will make us any worse off, and it will only improve us in the long run.
We don't need the Brohm watch, but here it is anyway. He had an easy week vs. NC State, going 20/33, 250yds 1td/1Int. For the year he has completed 322/482 (67%) of his passes for 4675 yards and 16 TD against just 4 INTs.
Harrington, on the other hand, looked a lot more relaxed. He seemed to focus on getting the ball out and letting the recievers do the work really seemed to give him confidence. Crumpler was bowling folks over and Jenkins did his best Cris Carter impression. Dunn did his best Thomas Brown impression while trying to hold off the young speedster one more week.
The media coverage sucked the teet of the Texans all afternoon discussing how "banged up" they were. Look, missing Andre Johnson is a big deal. Missing Ahman Green in 2002 is a big deal, but this is 2007. He doesn't matter anymore. The Falcons were missing their #1 and #3 DTs, they played a rookie 6th round draft pick all game and got good production from him. Another rookie, Stephen Nicholas (4th round pick from USF) got a good amount of playing time and showed the rare (for a Falcon LB) ability to both swarm to the ball AND take down the ball carrier.
Overall, the Falcons played a pretty complete game. I think Hall sitting during the first quarter combined with watching his replacement give up a long TD put things in perspective for him. He shut down Davis after that (not exactly a challenge) and we didn't see much of him all game (which is what you want out of your CB, I never want to see them on camera because it means they're getting thrown at.) I saw way too much of Lewis Sanders, however. I think the seat he's been keeping warm for Houston is warm enough. I can't see how putting Houston out there will make us any worse off, and it will only improve us in the long run.
We don't need the Brohm watch, but here it is anyway. He had an easy week vs. NC State, going 20/33, 250yds 1td/1Int. For the year he has completed 322/482 (67%) of his passes for 4675 yards and 16 TD against just 4 INTs.
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